The Center for Quantitative Economic Research (CQER) of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta promotes and advances empirical research in economics and promotes forecasting models usable for policy studies.
The August 31 update of this U.S. business cycle model shows a 24.7 percent probability that the economy is in a recession as of June 2010. The model monitors turning points and evaluates the strength of the economy in real time.
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Lawrence J. Christiano, Mathias Trabandt, and Karl Walentin
CQER Working Paper 10-03 (August)
When the authors integrate their model of involuntary unemployment into a DSGE model, the resulting model does well at accounting for standard macroeconomic variables' response to monetary policy shocks and two technology shocks.
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Advancing knowledge of the connection between financial innovation and stability through conferences and research on issues and government policies
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