The Center for Quantitative Economic Research (CQER) of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta advances empirical research in economics and promotes forecasting models usable for policy studies.
Data for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in third-quarter 2013 have pushed the GDP-based recession indicator down to 12.4 percent. This index from well-known economist James Hamilton assigns recession start and end dates based on observed dynamics in the U.S. economy.
Zhen Huo and José-Víctor Ríos-Rull
CQER Working Paper 13-03 (April)
The authors propose a variation of the neoclassical growth model, which provides a novel, quantitative theory of the current recessions in southern Europe.
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