The Center for Quantitative Economic Research (CQER) of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta advances empirical research in economics and promotes forecasting models usable for policy studies.
This index from well-known economist James Hamilton assigns recession start and end dates based on observed dynamics of U.S. real GDP growth. Using BEA data released January 27, 2012, the index for 2011:Q3 fell to 7.4, significantly below levels that would signal that a new recession has begun.
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The December update of this U.S. business cycle model shows a 27.4 percent probability that the economy is in a recession as of September 2011. The model monitors turning points and evaluates the strength of the economy in real time.
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Advancing knowledge of the connection between financial innovation and stability through conferences and research on issues and government policies
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