The commentaries for the 75 most recent GDPNow updates are below, starting with the latest estimate.
May 01, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 3.3 percent on May 1, down from 3.9 percent on April 26. After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 4.0 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively, to 3.1 percent and 4.0 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.05 percentage points to 0.01 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, May 2.
April 26, 2024
The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 3.9 percent on April 26. The initial estimate of first-quarter real GDP growth released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on April 25 was 1.6 percent, 1.1 percentage points below the final GDPNow model nowcast released on April 24.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, May 1.
April 24, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.7 percent on April 24, down from 2.9 percent on April 16. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 3.5 percent and 3.7 percent, respectively, to 3.3 percent and 3.5 percent.
This is the last GDPNow forecast for the first quarter. The first GDPNow forecast for the second quarter will be on Friday, April 26.
April 16, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.9 percent on April 16, up from 2.8 percent on April 15. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau and industrial production report from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.4 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively, to 3.5 percent and 3.7 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, April 24.
April 15, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.8 percent on April 15, up from 2.4 percent on April 10. After recent releases from the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the US Census Bureau, increases in nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 2.9 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively, to 3.4 percent and 3.4 percent, were slightly offset by a decrease in the nowcast of first-quarter real government spending growth from 2.6 percent to 2.3 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.24 percentage points to -0.15 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, April 16.
April 10, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.4 percent on April 10, down from 2.5 percent on April 4. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the US Census Bureau, a decrease in the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.1 percent to 2.9 percent was slightly offset by an increase in the nowcast of first-quarter real government spending growth from 2.5 to 2.6 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Monday, April 15.
April 04, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.5 percent on April 4, down from 2.8 percent on April 1. After this morning’s international release from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to annualized first-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.48 percentage points to -0.57 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, April 10.
April 01, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.8 percent on April 1, up from 2.3 percent on March 29. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic growth increased from 2.6 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively, to 3.2 percent and 3.9 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, April 4.
March 29, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.3 percent on March 29, up from 2.1 percent on March 26. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 1.9 percent to 2.6 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.16 percentage points to -0.47 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Monday, April 1.
March 26, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.1 percent on March 26, unchanged from March 19 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.7 percent to 3.1 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, March 29.
March 19, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.1 percent on March 19, down from 2.3 percent from March 14. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.2 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively, to 1.9 percent and 2.7 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, March 26.
March 14, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.3 percent on March 14, down from 2.5 percent from March 7. After recent releases from the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the US Census Bureau, a decrease in the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.9 percent to 2.2 percent was slightly offset by increases in the nowcasts of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth and first-quarter real government spending growth from 1.7 and 2.4 percent, respectively, to 3.0 and 2.7 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, March 19.
March 07, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.5 percent on March 7, unchanged from March 6. After this morning’s international trade report from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, an increase in the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.6 percent to 2.9 percent was slightly offset by a decrease in the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 1.8 percent to 1.7 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.04 percentage points to -0.15 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, March 14.
March 06, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.5 percent on March 6, up from 2.1 percent on March 1. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Census Bureau, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.2 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively, to 2.6 percent and 1.8 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, March 7.
March 01, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.1 percent on March 1, down from 3.0 percent on February 29. After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 3.0 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively, to 2.2 percent and 1.1 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, March 6.
February 29, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 3.0 percent on February 29, down from 3.2 percent on February 27. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, a decrease in the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 4.6 percent to 3.0 percent was slightly offset by an increase in the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.7 percent to 3.0 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.20 percentage points to -0.01 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, March 1.
February 27, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 3.2 percent on February 27, up from 2.9 percent on February 16. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.5 percent to 4.6 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, February 29.
February 16, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.9 percent on February 16, unchanged from February 15. After this morning's Producer Price Index release from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.4 percent to 2.5 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, February 27.
February 15, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.9 percent on February 15, down from 3.4 percent on February 8. After recent releases from the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 3.2 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively, to 2.7 percent and 2.4 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.22 percentage points to 0.19 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, February 16.
February 08, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 3.4 percent on February 8, unchanged from February 7 after rounding. After this morning's wholesale trade release from the US Census Bureau, an increase in the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 3.2 percent to 3.3 percent was offset by a decrease in the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.3 percent to 3.2 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, February 15.
February 07, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 3.4 percent on February 7, down from 4.2 percent on February 1. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of first-quarter gross personal consumption expenditures growth decreased from 4.9 percent to 3.3 percent, while the nowcast of first-quarter gross private domestic investment growth increased from 1.7 percent to 3.2 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, February 8.
February 01, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 4.2 percent on February 1, up from 3.0 percent on January 26. After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.6 percent and -0.3 percent, respectively, to 4.9 percent and 1.7 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.27 percentage points to 0.18 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, February 7.
January 26, 2024
The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 3.0 percent on January 26. The initial estimate of fourth-quarter real GDP growth released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on January 25 was 3.3 percent, 0.9 percentage points above the final GDPNow model nowcast released on January 19. For technical reasons, tabs to the right of ReadMe in this excel file have not been updated.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, February 1.
January 19, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.4 percent on January 19, unchanged from January 18 after rounding. After this morning's existing-home sales report from the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from -0.4 percent to -0.6 percent.
This is the last GDPNow forecast for the fourth quarter. The first GDPNow forecast for the first quarter will be on Friday, January 26. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
January 18, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.4 percent on January 18, unchanged from January 17 after rounding. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from 0.2 percent to -0.4 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, January 19. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
January 17, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.4 percent on January 17, up from 2.2 on January 10. After recent releases from the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.6 percent and -0.7 percent, respectively, to 2.8 percent and -0.5 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, January 18. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
January 10, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.2 percent on January 10, unchanged from January 9 after rounding. After this morning's wholesale trade release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from -0.6 percent to -0.7 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, January 17. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
January 09, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.2 percent on January 9, down from 2.5 percent on January 3. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter gross personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.9 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively, to 2.6 percent and -0.6 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.23 percentage points to -0.07 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, January 10. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
January 03, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.5 percent on January 3, up from 2.0 percent on January 2. After this morning’s release of the ISM Manufacturing Index from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter gross personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.4 percent and -0.4 percent, respectively, to 2.9 percent and 0.5 percent
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, January 9. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
January 02, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.0 percent on January 2, down from 2.3 percent on December 22. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 0.8 percent to -0.4 percent, and the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.11 percentage points to -0.22 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, January 3. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
December 22, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.3 percent on December 22, down from 2.7 percent on December 19. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth decreased from 3.0 percent to 2.4 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, January 2. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
December 19, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.7 percent on December 19, up from 2.6 percent on December 14. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 0.5 percent to 0.8 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, December 22. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
December 14, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.6 percent on December 14, up from 1.2 percent on December 7. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth, fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth, and fourth-quarter real government spending growth increased from 1.9 percent, -3.0 percent, and 3.1 percent, respectively, to 3.0 percent, 0.5 percent, and 3.6 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.06 percentage points to -0.12 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, December 19. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
December 07, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 1.2 percent on December 7, down from 1.3 percent on December 6 after rounding. After this morning's wholesale trade release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from -2.9 percent to -3.0 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, December 14. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
December 06, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 1.3 percent on December 6, up from 1.2 percent on December 1. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 1.8 percent and -3.2 percent, respectively, to 1.9 percent and -2.9 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.01 percentage points to -0.06 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, December 7. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
December 01, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 1.2 percent on December 1, down from 1.8 percent on November 30. After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.7 percent and -2.7 percent, respectively, to 1.8 percent and -3.2 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, December 6. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
November 30, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 1.8 percent on November 30, down from 2.1 percent on November 22. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, a decrease in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from -1.1 percent to -2.7 percent was slightly offset by an increase in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.5 percent to 2.7 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.09 percentage points to -0.05 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, December 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
November 22, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.1 percent on November 22, up from 2.0 percent on November 17. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -1.8 percent to -1.1 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, November 30. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
November 17, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.0 percent on November 17, down from 2.2 percent on November 15. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from -0.8 percent to -1.8 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, November 22. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
November 15, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.2 percent on November 15, up from 2.1 percent on November 8. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.6 percent and -1.1 percent, respectively, to 2.7 percent and -0.8 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, November 17. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
November 08, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.1 percent on November 8, unchanged from November 7 after rounding. After this morning's wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from -1.0 percent to -1.1 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, November 15. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
November 07, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.1 percent on November 7, up from 1.2 percent on November 1. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the Institute for Supply Management, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 1.5 percent and -2.8 percent, respectively, to 2.6 percent and -1.0 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.22 percentage points to 0.04 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, November 8. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
November 01, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 1.2 percent on November 1, down from 2.3 percent on October 27. After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 3.0 percent and -2.2 percent, respectively, to 1.5 percent and -2.8 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.11 percentage points to 0.22 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, November 7. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
October 27, 2023
The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.3 percent on October 27. The initial estimate of third-quarter real GDP growth released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on October 26 was 4.9 percent, 0.5 percentage points below the final GDPNow model nowcast released on October 25.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, November 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
October 25, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.4 percent on October 25, unchanged from October 18 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of third-quarter real government spending growth decreased from 3.1 percent to 3.0 percent after rounding.
This is the last GDPNow forecast for the third quarter. The first GDPNow forecast for the fourth quarter will be on Friday, October 27. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
October 18, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.4 percent on October 18, unchanged from October 17 after rounding. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from 5.5 percent to 4.8 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, October 25. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
October 17, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.4 percent on October 17, up from 5.1 percent on October 10. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.7 percent to 4.1 percent was slightly offset by a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 6.7 percent to 6.5 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.94 percentage points to 0.99 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, October 18. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
October 10, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.1 percent on October 10, up from 4.9 percent on October 5. After last week's employment situation release from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and this morning's wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth and third-quarter real government spending growth increased from 5.9 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively, to 6.7 percent and 3.0 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, October 17. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
October 05, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 4.9 percent on October 5, unchanged from October 2 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.8 percent to 3.7 percent was offset by an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 5.4 percent to 5.9 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, October 10. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
October 02, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 4.9 percent on October 2, unchanged from September 29 after rounding. After this morning’s data releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, slight declines in the model’s nowcasts of real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth were offset by an increase in the model’s nowcast of real government expenditures growth.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, October 5. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
September 29, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 4.9 percent on September 29, unchanged from September 27 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and US Census Bureau, increases in the model’s nowcasts of the contributions of personal consumption expenditures and net exports to GDP growth were offset by a downward revision in the nowcast of real gross private domestic investment growth.
The next GDPNow update is Monday, October 2. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
September 26, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 4.9 percent on September 27, unchanged from September 19 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of third-quarter gross private domestic investment growth increased from 9.6 percent to 9.9 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, September 29. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
September 18, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 4.9 percent on September 19, unchanged from September 14 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the nowcast of third-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from 6.8 percent to 6.3 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 1.20 percentage points to 1.05 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, September 27. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
September 13, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 4.9 percent on September 14, down from 5.6 percent on September 8. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth, third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth, and third-quarter real government spending growth decreased from 4.0 percent, 11.7 percent, and 2.3 percent, respectively, to 3.5 percent, 10.6 percent, and 1.9 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, September 19. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
September 07, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.6 percent on September 8, unchanged from September 6 after rounding. After this morning's wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 1.37 percentage points to 1.36 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, September 14. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
September 05, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.6 percent on September 6, unchanged from September 1 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, decreases in the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth were offset by an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real net exports.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, September 8. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
August 31, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.6 percent on September 1, unchanged from August 31 after rounding. After this morning's releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Institute for Supply Management, an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 11.8 percent to 12.3 percent was offset by decreases in the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real government spending growth from 4.3 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively, to 4.2 percent and 2.3 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, September 6. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
August 30, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.6 percent on August 31, down from 5.9 percent on August 24. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 4.8 percent and 12.3 percent, respectively, to 4.3 percent and 11.8 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.10 percentage points to 0.26 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, September 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
August 23, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.9 percent on August 24, up from 5.8 percent on August 16. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 11.4 percent to 12.3 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, August 31. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
August 15, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.8 percent on August 16, up from 5.0 percent on August 15. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau and industrial production report from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 4.4 percent and 8.8 percent, respectively, to 4.8 percent and 11.4 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, August 24. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
August 14, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.0 percent on August 15, up from 4.1 percent on August 8. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, increases in the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 3.2 percent and 8.1 percent, respectively, to 4.4 percent and 8.8 percent were slightly offset by a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real government spending growth from 2.7 percent to 2.5 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, August 16. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
August 07, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 4.1 percent on August 8, up from 3.9 percent on August 1. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the Institute for Supply Management, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 5.2 percent to 8.1 percent was slightly offset by decreases in the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real government spending growth from 3.5 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively, to 3.2 percent and 2.7 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.08 percentage points to 0.11 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, August 15. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
July 31, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 3.9 percent on August 1, up from 3.5 percent on July 28. After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.1 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively, to 3.5 percent and 5.2 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, August 8. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
July 27, 2023
The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 3.5 percent on July 28. The initial estimate of second-quarter real GDP growth released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on July 27 was 2.4 percent, equal to the final GDPNow model nowcast released on July 26 after rounding.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, August 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
July 25, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.4 percent on July 26, unchanged from July 19 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of second-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from 0.1 percent to -0.1 percent.
This is the last GDPNow forecast for the second quarter. The first GDPNow forecast for the third quarter will be on Friday, July 28. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
July 18, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.4 percent on July 19, unchanged from July 18 after rounding. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real residential investment growth increased from -0.8 percent to 0.1 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, July 26. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
July 17, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.4 percent on July 18, up from 2.3 percent on July 10. After recent releases from the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, increases in the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures and real government spending growth from 1.2 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively, to 1.4 percent and 2.8 percent were partially offset by a decrease in the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 10.5 percent to 9.4 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.72 percentage points to -0.67 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, July 19. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
July 09, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.3 percent on July 10, up from 2.1 percent on July 6. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 9.6 percent to 10.5 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, July 18. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
July 05, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.1 percent on July 6, up from 1.9 percent on July 3. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 8.8 percent to 9.6 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.75 percentage points to -0.72 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Monday, July 10. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
July 02, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 1.9 percent on July 3, down from 2.2 percent on June 30. After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 10.4 percent to 8.8 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, July 6. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
June 29, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.2 percent on June 30, up from 1.8 percent on June 27. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 0.9 percent and 8.6 percent, respectively, to 1.1 percent and 10.4 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.71 percentage points to -0.75 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Monday, July 3. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
June 26, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 1.8 percent on June 27, down from 1.9 percent on June 20. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 9.7 percent to 8.6 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, June 30. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
June 19, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 1.9 percent on June 20, up from 1.8 percent on June 15. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real residential investment growth increased from -2.1 percent to 2.2 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, June 27. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
June 14, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 1.8 percent on June 15, down from 2.2 percent on June 8. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real government spending growth decreased from 1.4 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively, to 0.9 percent and 2.3 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, June 20. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
June 07, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.2 percent on June 8, unchanged from June 7 after rounding. After this morning's wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 8.9 percent to 8.7 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, June 15. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.