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Research & the Economy

Policymakers Expect Slower Growth in Second Half of Year

According to the minutes from the August 10 policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, meeting participants agreed that the economy has been more sluggish than expected, but that credit conditions for households and small businesses are improving, which should help support the economic recovery.
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Real Time Analysis of the U.S. Business Cycle

The August 31 update of this U.S. business cycle model shows a 24.7 percent probability that the economy is in a recession as of June 2010. The model monitors turning points and evaluates the strength of the economy in real time.
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Involuntary Unemployment and the Business Cycle

Lawrence J. Christiano, Mathias Trabandt, and Karl Walentin
CQER Working Paper 10-03 (August)
When the authors integrate their model of involuntary unemployment into a DSGE model, the resulting model does well at accounting for standard macroeconomic variables' response to monetary policy shocks and two technology shocks.
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Updates & Other News

8/30/10: Introducing Financial Frictions and Unemployment into a Small Open Economy Model
8/30/10: DSGE Models for Monetary Policy Analysis
8/26/10: Expected Returns to Stock Investments by Angel Investors in Groups
8/23/10: Fixed-Term and Permanent Employment Contracts: Theory and Evidence
8/18/10: Oil Spill Impact

Blogs

Aug. 20	SouthPoint - Recent Atlanta Fed polls show housing slump continues; capital spending plans mixed
Aug. 18	macroblog - Just how curious is that Beveridge curve?
Aug. 10	Real Estate Research - Part 2: A closer look at Michael Lewis's "The Big Short"
Aug. 4	SouthPoint - Is the worst over for Gulf Coast tourism?

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Podcasts

Aug. 17	Oil Spill Impact (Southeastern Economic Perspectives)
Aug. 11	Economic Growth and Incentives (Research Insights)
June 30	Greece and Sovereign Debt (EconSouth Now)
June 9	El sistema financiero Mexicano luego de la crisis (Research Insights)