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Research Notes–February 2008

Featuring research published in January 2008


The Economy in 2008
Jan. 7, 2008
Dennis P. Lockhart, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, provides his thoughts on the economic outlook for 2008 to the Rotary Club of Atlanta.

The Economy in 2008
Jan. 17, 2008
Dennis P. Lockhart, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, provides his thoughts on the economic outlook for 2008 to the University of Alabama Economic Outlook Conference in Montgomery, Ala.


A Look Ahead: Housing, Energy Squeezed in '08
EconSouth Q4 2007
If economic growth slows in the United States in 2008, it will primarily be because of factors already present: a slumping housing market, high energy costs, and turbulence in worldwide financial markets.

Great Moderations and U.S. Interest Rates: Unconditional Evidence
Working Paper 2008-1
Using a consumption-based asset pricing model, the authors find that interest rate movements in the twentieth century were associated with shifts in average inflation rather than changes in inflation or consumption growth volatility.

Dollar Regained Ground in December
The average monthly value for the trade-weighted dollar index of 15 major currencies tracked by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta increased 1.4 percent in December from the previous month.


Bond Positions, Expectations, and the Yield Curve
Working Paper 2008-2
Systematic errors in investors' forecasts are an important source of variation in measured risk premia within the business cycle. In contrast, subjective risk premia move less and more slowly.

Regional Economics

The Southeastern Economy in 2008: A Region In Flux
EconSouth Q4 2007
Like much of the country, Southern states are adjusting to the new realities of high energy costs and relatively flat home values. At the same time, the region's residents will benefit from growing sectors such as service employment and some agricultural and manufacturing industries.

Will Southeast's Water Woes Become Water Wars?
EconSouth Q4 2007
It’s essential to life, we take it for granted, and there's not enough to go around in the Southeast. In a fast-growing region, increasing demand for water and a constrained supply are squeezing regional economies.

"We're Going to Struggle With This for Years"
EconSouth Q4 2007
An interview on the drought in the Southeast with Mark Risse, a professor in the University of Georgia's Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering.

International Economics

Despite Increased Risks, Global Growth to Remain Solid in 2008
EconSouth Q4 2007
The world economy will continue to enjoy one of the better performances in recent decades, led by economic growth in developing countries. Economies in developed countries, however, will see slower growth rates in 2008.


The Economy in 2008 (MP3 18:21)
Atlanta Fed President and Chief Executive Officer Dennis Lockhart provides his 2008 economic outlook to the Rotary Club of Atlanta.

The Southeastern Economy in 2008 (MP3 11:12)
EconSouth Now
Atlanta Fed economists Julie Hotchkiss and John Robertson discuss factors that will influence the Southeastern economy in the coming year.

Examining the Southeast's Water Supply (MP3 14:37)
Southeastern Economic Perspectives
An Atlanta Fed economist and a University of Georgia professor discuss water management in the Southeast and how its allocation and availability affect the regional economy.