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Research Notes–June 2006

Featuring research published in May 2006


Nearing a Sustainable Balance of Economic Growth
May 1, 2006
Jack Guynn, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, provides his economic outlook and thoughts on economic growth to the Rotary Club of Nashville.


Changes in Behavioral and Characteristic Determination of Female Labor Force Participation, 1975–2005
Economic Review Q2 2006
This article suggests that the decline in women’s labor force participation rates since 2000 has not been entirely a response to a predictable change in macroeconomic conditions or to demographic changes.

Interwar U.K. Unemployment: The Benjamin and Kochin Hypothesis or the Legacy of “Just” Taxes?
Working Paper 2006-4
Examining whether changes in unemployment benefits or income tax rates better predict unemployment in the United Kingdom between the world wars, the authors find that fiscal policy was a key driving force.

The Origins of Bubbles in Laboratory Asset Markets
Working Paper 2006-6
The authors conduct experiments that are designed to investigate individual probability judgment error and speculative behavior. They find that both factors contribute to the creation of asset price bubbles.

Dollar Appreciated Moderately in April
In April the average monthly value for the trade-weighted dollar index of 15 major currencies tracked by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta declined by 0.7 percent.


Bank Relationships and Small Firms’ Financial Performance
Working Paper 2006-5
Detailed Italian data indicate that firms are more profitable if they deal with fewer banks, a relationship that is stronger for smaller firms. The results are very consistent with the importance of bank relationships for small firms.

Regional Economics

Welfare Recipiency, Job Separation Outcomes, and Postseparation Earnings: Insight from Linked Personnel and State Administrative Data
Working Paper 2006-7
Examining labor market outcomes between welfare and nonwelfare hires, the authors compare the labor market experience of former welfare recipients to that of other, similarly low-skilled workers.