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Research Notes–September 2006

Featuring research published in August 2006


Reflections on Four Decades in Central Banking
Jack Guynn, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, provides his insight into changes in the banking industry to the Kiwanis Club of Atlanta.


Dollar Unchanged in July
In June the average monthly value for the trade-weighted dollar index of 15 major currencies tracked by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta was virtually unchanged in July from the previous month.

Energy Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Consumer Durables
Working Paper 2006-9
Simulation results from the authors’ model indicate that productivity shocks, not energy price shocks, are the primary force behind business cycle fluctuations.


Specification Tests of Asset Pricing Models Using Excess Returns
Working Paper 2006-10
The authors propose a novel specification test of asset pricing models. They also show that not accounting for possible model misspecification can overstate the significance of the risk premia estimates.

The Long-Run Fisher Effect: Can It Be Tested?
Working Paper 2006-11
In examining the relationship between interest rates and inflation, the author finds that a monetary shock in 17 industrialized countries does not permanently affect inflation, rendering the long-run Fisher effect hypothesis untestable.