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Atlanta Fed Working Papers

The Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta publishes a working paper series to convey the research of staff economists and visiting scholars and stimulate professional discussion and exploration of economic and financial subjects.


Death of a Reserve Currency
Stephen Quinn and William Roberds
Working Paper 2014-17 (September)
The Dutch bank florin—the dominant currency in Europe during much of the 17th and 18th centuries—lost its reserve currency status during the period 1781–92. The authors reconstruct the Bank of Amsterdam's balance sheet to determine how the bank's accommodative policies led to loss of control over the value of its money.

Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching DSGE Models
Andrew Foerster, Juan Rubio-Ramírez, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
Working Paper 2014-16 (August)
Examining structural shifts in the economy, the authors propose a methodology that constructs high-order approximations to the solutions of certain types of macroeconomic models. They use two examples to illustrate the tractability of their methodology.

Liquidity Premia, Price-Rent Dynamics, and Business Cycles
Jianjun Miao, Pengfei Wang, and Tao Zha
Working Paper 2014-15 (August)
House prices have fluctuated more widely than house rents in the last 25 years. The authors develop a model that assesses the empirically important role that price-rent fluctuations play in the business cycle.

The Response of Stock Market Volatility to Futures-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Shocks
Nikolay Gospodinov and Ibrahim Jamali
Working Paper 2014-14 (August)
Investigating how changes in stock market volatility respond to changes in monetary policy, the authors show that market participants' uncertainty regarding monetary policy stances affects volatility in the stock market.

Hedging and Pricing in Imperfect Markets under Non-Convexity
Hirbod Assa and Nikolay Gospodinov
Working Paper 2014-13 (August)
The authors study hedging strategies in incomplete markets for a wide range of risk measures and pricing rules. They illustrate their approach with an application on hedging economic risk.

Spurious Inference in Unidentified Asset-Pricing Models
Nikolay Gospodinov, Raymond Kan, and Cesare Robotti
Working Paper 2014-12 (August)
Examining seemingly anomalous results arising in some asset-pricing models, the authors perform simulations and an empirical application to reveal the spurious nature of inference.

Minimum Distance Estimation of Dynamic Models with Errors-In-Variables
Nikolay Gospodinov, Ivana Komunjer, and Serena Ng
Working Paper 2014-11 (August)
The authors propose a class of estimators for models with mismeasured predictors. They use their methodology to re-examine the Phillips curve in situations where the real activity gap is latent.

Family Welfare and the Great Recession
Julie L. Hotchkiss, Robert E. Moore, and Fernando Rios-Avila
Working Paper 2014-10 (August)
Examining the impact of the past recession on family welfare, the authors estimate losses generated by wage and nonlabor income declines experienced across the recession and by labor market constraints existing after the recession.

Early Public Banks
William Roberds and François R. Velde
Working Paper 2014-9 (August)
Publicly owned banks have been common in Europe since the 15th century. The authors look at early (pre-1814) attempts by these banks to create a reliable monetary asset.

Adjusted Employment-to-Population Ratio as an Indicator of Labor Market Strength
Julie L. Hotchkiss
Working Paper 2014-8 (August)
Using the raw employment-to-population ratio (EPOP) to measure labor market strength can be problematic. The author proposes an adjustment to EPOP's calculation that disentangles employment outcomes from changes in labor force participation.

GDPNow: A Model for GDP "Nowcasting"
Patrick Higgins
Working Paper 2014-7 (July)
Many ways exist to nowcast real gross domestic product (GDP) growth. The author develops a bottom-up approach that incorporates much of the source data used to estimate GDP.

Risk, Return, and Volatility Feedback: A Bayesian Nonparametric Analysis
Mark J. Jensen and John M. Maheu
Working Paper 2014-6 (June)
The authors examine the relationship between risk and return, an intensely scrutinized topic in finance. Their nonparametric approach allows for departure from Gaussianity, resulting in an unambiguous positive relationship between expected excess returns and expected variance.

Home Hours in the United States and Europe
Lei Fang and Cara McDaniel
Working Paper 2014-5 (June)
This paper documents the common decreasing trend in home hours for the United States and a few European countries during the past 50 years. The authors also find that home hours between the United States and Europe are more different for female and young/old age groups.

The Effect of Large Investors on Asset Quality: Evidence from Subprime Mortgage Securities
Manuel Adelino, W. Scott Frame, and Kristopher S. Gerardi
Working Paper 2014-4 (April)
How did the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac influence the risk characteristics and prices of deals involving subprime private-label mortgage-backed securities? The authors find that mortgage pools involving the GSEs performed better during the financial crisis than similar pools without the GSEs' involvement.

Trimmed-Mean Inflation Statistics: Just Hit the One in the Middle
Brent Meyer and Guhan Venkatu
Working Paper 2014-3 (March)
Investigating trimmed-means inflation measures, the authors explore whether a particular measure dominates the median consumer price index. Using an equality of prediction test, they find that a large swath of trimmed means have statistically indistinguishable performance.

Human Capital Dynamics and the U.S. Labor Market
Lei Fang and Jun Nie
Working Paper 2014-2 (February)
The authors explore the impact of shocks, unemployment insurance, and human capital dynamics on the unemployment rate in the Great Recession. They emphasize the importance of workers' and firms' endogenous responses to these factors.

Inference Based on SVARs Identified with Sign and Zero Restrictions: Theory and Applications
Jonas E. Arias, Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, and Daniel F. Waggoner
Working Paper 2014-1 (February)
Some recent research shows that optimism shocks are an important source of business cycle fluctuations and deficit-financed tax cuts are better than deficit-financed spending for increasing output. The authors' new methodology does not support these results.

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