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Atlanta Fed Working Papers

The Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta publishes a working paper series to convey the research of staff economists and visiting scholars and stimulate professional discussion and exploration of economic and financial subjects.


Early Public Banks
William Roberds and François R. Velde
Working Paper 2014-9 (August)
Publicly owned banks have been common in Europe since the 15th century. The authors look at early (pre-1814) attempts by these banks to create a reliable monetary asset.

Adjusted Employment-to-Population Ratio as an Indicator of Labor Market Strength
Julie L. Hotchkiss
Working Paper 2014-8 (August)
Using the raw employment-to-population ratio (EPOP) to measure labor market strength can be problematic. The author proposes an adjustment to EPOP's calculation that disentangles employment outcomes from changes in labor force participation.

GDPNow: A Model for GDP "Nowcasting"
Patrick Higgins
Working Paper 2014-7 (July)
Many ways exist to nowcast real gross domestic product (GDP) growth. The author develops a bottom-up approach that incorporates much of the source data used to estimate GDP.

Risk, Return, and Volatility Feedback: A Bayesian Nonparametric Analysis
Mark J. Jensen and John M. Maheu
Working Paper 2014-6 (June)
The authors examine the relationship between risk and return, an intensely scrutinized topic in finance. Their nonparametric approach allows for departure from Gaussianity, resulting in an unambiguous positive relationship between expected excess returns and expected variance.

Home Hours in the United States and Europe
Lei Fang and Cara McDaniel
Working Paper 2014-5 (June)
This paper documents the common decreasing trend in home hours for the United States and a few European countries during the past 50 years. The authors also find that home hours between the United States and Europe are more different for female and young/old age groups.

The Effect of Large Investors on Asset Quality: Evidence from Subprime Mortgage Securities
Manuel Adelino, W. Scott Frame, and Kristopher S. Gerardi
Working Paper 2014-4 (April)
How did the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac influence the risk characteristics and prices of deals involving subprime private-label mortgage-backed securities? The authors find that mortgage pools involving the GSEs performed better during the financial crisis than similar pools without the GSEs' involvement.

Trimmed-Mean Inflation Statistics: Just Hit the One in the Middle
Brent Meyer and Guhan Venkatu
Working Paper 2014-3 (March)
Investigating trimmed-means inflation measures, the authors explore whether a particular measure dominates the median consumer price index. Using an equality of prediction test, they find that a large swath of trimmed means have statistically indistinguishable performance.

Human Capital Dynamics and the U.S. Labor Market
Lei Fang and Jun Nie
Working Paper 2014-2 (February)
The authors explore the impact of shocks, unemployment insurance, and human capital dynamics on the unemployment rate in the Great Recession. They emphasize the importance of workers' and firms' endogenous responses to these factors.

Inference Based on SVARs Identified with Sign and Zero Restrictions: Theory and Applications
Jonas E. Arias, Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, and Daniel F. Waggoner
Working Paper 2014-1 (February)
Some recent research shows that optimism shocks are an important source of business cycle fluctuations and deficit-financed tax cuts are better than deficit-financed spending for increasing output. The authors' new methodology does not support these results.

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