Research
Research Interests
Monetary Economics
Financial Economics
Financial Institutions
Journal Publications
"Bank Relationships and Firms' Financial Performance: The Italian Experience" (with Annalisa Castelli and Iftekhar Hasan). European
Financial Management, forthcoming.
"The Financial Crisis of 2008 in Fixed-income Markets" (with Paula Tkac). Journal of International Money and Finance 28
(December 2009), 1293–1316.
"Interest on Reserves and the Fed's Balance Sheet." Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 6 (December 2009), 15–24.
"Inflation and Monetary Regimes" (with Mark Fisher). Journal of International Money and Finance 28 (November 2009), 1221–41.
"Why Do Banks Promise to Pay Par On Demand?" (with Margarita Samartín). Journal of Financial Stability 5 (June 2009), 147–69.
"Suspensions of Payments, Bank Failures and the Nonbank Publics' Losses" (with Iftekhar Hasan). Journal of Monetary Economics
54 (March 2007), 565–80.
"When the Shoe Is on the Other Foot: Experimental Evidence on Valuation Disparities" (with Lucy F. Ackert and Bryan K. Church).
Public Finance Review 35 (March 2007), 199–214.
"How Important Are Capital and Total Factor Productivity for Economic Growth?" (with Scott L. Baier and Robert Tamura). Economic
Inquiry 44 (January 2006), 23–49.
"Does the Creation of Stock Exchanges Increase Economic Growth?" (with Scott L. Baier and Robert Tamura). Journal of International Money and
Finance 23 (April 2004), 311–31 (lead article).
"Portable Random Number Generators" (with K.B. Williams). Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 27 (February 2003), 645–50.
"Weekly U.S. and State Bond Prices" (with R. W. Hafer and Warren E. Weber). Historical Methods 32 (Winter 1999), pp. 37–42.
"Branching Restrictions and Bank Offices." Managerial Finance 23, no. 2 (1997), pp. 65–77.
"Index Arbitrage and Nonlinear Dynamics between the Futures and Cash S&P 500" (with Peter Locke and Wei Yu). Review of Financial
Studies 9 (Spring 1996), pp. 301–32.
"Bank Runs in the Free Banking Period" (with Iftekhar Hasan). Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 26 (May 1994), pp.
271–88.
"Tests of Rational Expectations in a Stark Setting." (with Arlington W. Williams, Raymond C. Battalio and Timothy I. Mason). Economic
Journal 103 (May 1993), pp. 586–601.
"Cointegration and Market Efficiency" (with Myles Wallace). Journal of International Money and Finance 11 (August 1992), pp. 318–27
(lead article).
"Stabilization Policy Can Lead to Chaos." Economic Inquiry 30 (January 1992), pp. 40–46.
"Tests of Competing Theories of Consumer Choice and the Representative Consumer Hypothesis" (with Raymond C. Battalio and John H. Kagel).
Economic Journal 97 (December 1987), pp. 842–56.
"Government Revenue from Creation of Government and Private Money" (with Thomas R. Saving). Journal of Monetary Economics
17 (March 1986), pp. 239–49.
"Federal Deficits, Interest Rates, and Monetary Policy." Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 17 (November 1985, Part 2),
pp. 655–81.
"Money, Income, and Prices in the United Kingdom: 1870–1913." Economic Inquiry 23 (July 1985), pp. 415–35.
"Bliss Points vs. Minimum Needs: Tests of Competing Motivational Models" (with Raymond C. Battalio and John H. Kagel).
Behavioural Processes 11 (1985), pp. 61–77.
"The Gibson Paradox: A Cross-country Analysis." Economica 51 (May 1984), pp. 109–27 (lead article). Reprinted in
The Intellectual Legacy of Milton Friedman, edited by Daniel Hammond, volume II, pp. 539–57.
"Robert Giffen and the Irish Potato" (with Cotton M. Lindsay). American Economic Review 74 (March 1984), pp. 188–92.
"Inflation and Government Deficits." Economic Inquiry 20 (July 1982), pp. 315–29 (lead article). Comment by Roger W. Garrison,
22 (October 1984), pp. 593–96. "Inflation and Government Deficits: A Reply," same issue, pp. 597–601.
"Are Expectations of Inflation Rational? Or, Is Variation of the Expected Real Interest Rate Unpredictable?" Journal of Monetary
Economics 8 (July 1981), pp. 59–84.
"The Effects of the Banking Acts of 1933 and 1935 on Capital Investment in Commercial Banking." Journal of Money, Credit and
Banking 13 (May 1981), pp. 192–204.
"Saving and the Rate of Interest: A Clarifying Note" (with Bruce Bender). Journal of Political Economy 88 (April 1980), pp.
400–05.
Federal Reserve Bank Review Publications
"Investment Analysts' Forecasts of Earnings" (with Rocco Ciciretti and Iftekhar Hasan). Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review
91 (September/October 2009, Part 2), 545–67.
"Social Security Private Accounts: A Risky
Proposition?" Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, Third Quarter 2005.
"The News in Financial Asset Returns"
(with Cesare Robotti). Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, First Quarter 2004.
"Modern Economic Growth and Recent Stagnation"
(with Scott L. Baier and Robert Tamura). Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, Third Quarter 2003.
"Are Money Growth and Inflation Still Related?"
(with R. W. Hafer). Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, Second Quarter 1999, pp. 32–43.
"The Federal Government's Budget Surplus:
Cause for Celebration?" (with R. W. Hafer). Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, Third Quarter 1998,
pp. 42–51.
"Wildcat Banking, Banking Panics, and Free Banking
in the United States." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, December 1996, 1–20.
"Rules and Discretion in Monetary Policy." Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 75 (May/June 1993), pp. 3–13.
"Bank Runs and Private Remedies" (with R. Alton Gilbert). Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 71 (May/June 1989), 43–61.
Reprinted in Bank Management and Regulation: A Book of Readings, edited by Anthony Saunders, Gregory F. Udell, and Lawrence J. White,
1992.
"Interest Rates and Economic Announcements" (with R. W. Hafer). Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 71 (March/April 1989),
pp. 34–46.
"Are National Stock Markets Linked?" (with R. W. Hafer). Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 70 (November/December 1988),
pp. 3–14.
"Is Money Irrelevant?" (with R. W. Hafer). Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 70 (May/June 1988), pp. 1–17.
"Is the Dollar Overvalued in Foreign-Exchange Markets?" Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review 69 (March 1984), pp.
51–58.
"Is Inflation a Consequence of Government Deficits?" Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review 67 (August 1982), pp. 25–32.
"Branching, Holding Companies, and Banking Concentration in the Eighth District" (with William C. Niblack). Federal Reserve Bank of St.
Louis Review 56 (July 1974), pp. 11–23.
"Economic Slowdown: Demand or Supply Induced?" Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 56 (May 1974), pp. 8–14.
Atlanta Fed Working Papers
2011-15
Systematic and Liquidity Risk in Subprime-Mortgage Backed Securities
Mardi Dungey, Gerald P. Dwyer, and Thomas Flavin
November 2011
Abstract || Full text in PDF (1616 KB)
2010-14
Expected Returns to Stock Investments by Angel Investors in Groups
Ramon P. DeGennaro and Gerald P. Dwyer
August 2010
Abstract || Full text in PDF (244 KB)
2009-26
Inflation and Monetary Regimes
Gerald P. Dwyer and Mark Fisher
September 2009
Abstract || Full text in PDF (418 KB)
2009-20
The Financial Crisis of 2008 in Fixed Income Markets
Gerald P. Dwyer Jr. and Paula Tkac
August 2009
Abstract || Full text in PDF (405 KB)
2008-21
Returns to Investors in Stocks in New Industries
Gerald P. Dwyer Jr. and Cora Barnhart
September 2008
Abstract || Full text in PDF (329 KB)
2008-14
Financial and Real Integration
Scott L. Baier and Gerald P. Dwyer Jr.
May 2008
Abstract || Full text in PDF (293 KB)
2006-26
Why Do Banks Promise to Pay Par on Demand?
Gerald P. Dwyer Jr. and Margarita SamartÃn
November 2006
Abstract || Full text in PDF (408 KB)
2006-5
Bank Relationships and Small Firms' Financial Performance
Annalisa Castelli, Gerald P. Dwyer Jr., and Iftekhar Hasan
May 2006
Abstract || Full text in PDF (210 KB)
2005-17
When the Shoe Is on the Other Foot: Experimental Evidence on Evaluation Disparities
Lucy F. Ackert, Bryan K. Church, and Gerald P. Dwyer
August 2005
Abstract || Full text in PDF (210 KB)
2004-28
Trading Institutions and Price Discovery: The Cash and Futures Markets for Crude Oil
Albert Ballinger, Gerald P. Dwyer Jr., and Ann B. Gillette
November 2004
Abstract || Full text in PDF (901 KB)
2004-17
Factor Returns, Institutions, and Geography: A View From Trade
Scott L. Baier, Gerald P. Dwyer Jr., and Robert Tamura
July 2004
Abstract || Full text in PDF (901 KB)
2003-37
The Economics of International Monies
Gerald Dwyer and James R. Lothian
December 2003
Abstract || Full text in PDF (173 KB)
2003-36
Does Opening a Stock Exchange Increase Economic Growth?
Scott Baier, Gerald P. Dwyer Jr., and Robert Tamura
December 2003
Abstract || Full text in PDF (202 KB)
2002-15
Are Stocks in New Industries Like Lottery Tickets?
Gerald Dwyer and Cora Barnhart
August 2002
Abstract || Full text in PDF (247 KB)
2002-7
International Money and Common Currencies in Historical Perspective
Gerald P. Dwyer Jr. and James R. Lothian
June 2002
Abstract || Full text in PDF (1,279 KB)
2002-2a
How Important Are Capital and Total Factor Productivity for Economic Growth?
Scott L. Baier, Gerald P. Dwyer Jr., and Robert Tamura
Revised April 2002
Abstract || Full text in PDF (1,118 KB)
2001-13
Bank Failures in Banking Panics: Risky Banks or Road Kill?
Gerald P. Dwyer Jr. and R.W. Hafer
July 2001
Abstract || Full text in PDF (178 KB)
99-14
Portable Random Number Generators
Gerald P. Dwyer Jr. and K.B. Williams
October 1999
Abstract || Full text in PDF (582 KB)
96-3
Suspension of Payments, Bank Failures and the Nonbank Public's Losses
Gerald P. Dwyer Jr.and Iftekhar Hasan
May 1996
Abstract || Full text in PDF
95-17
Index Arbitrage and Nonlinear Dynamics between the S&P 500 Futures and Cash
Gerald P. Dwyer Jr., Peter Locke, and Wei Yu
November 1995
Abstract || Full text in PDF
Additional Publications
"The Financial Crisis of 2008 and Subprime Securities" (with Paula Tkac). In Financial Contagion: The Viral Threat to the Wealth of Nations, edited by Robert W. Kolb. Forthcoming.
"How is the U.S. Managing the Financial Crisis?" In Financial Collapse: How Are the Biggest Nations and Organizations Managing the Crisis?, edited by Paolo Savona, pp. 183–92. Florence: Fondazione CESIFIN, 2009.
"Comments and Observations on 'Sovereign Wealth Funds and Subprime Credit Problems.'" In Derivatives, Risk-Return and Subprime, edited by Paolo Savona, pp. 145–48. Florence: Fondazione CESIFIN, 2008.
"Real and Financial Integration" (with Scott Baier). In Money, Derivatives, Innovation and Growth, edited by Paolo Savona, pp. 25–53. Florence: Fondazione CESIFIN, 2007.
"Comments and Observations on 'The Global Perspective.'" In Search of a New Bretton Woods: Reserve Currencies and Global Imbalances, edited by Paolo Savona, pp. 145–50. Florence: Fondazione CESIFIN, 2007.
"Theoretical Explanations of Why Banks Promise to Pay Par on Demand" (with Margarita Samartín). In Transparency, Governance and Markets, edited by Michele Bagella, Leonardo Becchetti, and Iftekhar Hasan, pp. 1–20. Amsterdam: Elsevier, 2006.
"Preface—Hedge Funds: Creators of Risk?" Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review 91 (Fourth Quarter 2006), v–vi.
"Comments and Observations on 'The Impact on the U.S. Dollar of the Conflict between the American Locomotive's Model and the Emerging Economies' AutoPoietic Growth." In The Dollar and the Quest for a New International Monetary Coordination—A Tribute to Alberto Carmi, edited by Paolo Savona, pp. 79–83. Florence: Fondazione CESIFIN, 2005.
"International Money and Common Currencies in Historical Perspective" (with James R. Lothian). In Monetary Unions and Hard Pegs: Effects on Trade, Financial Development and Stability, edited by Volbert Alexander, Jacques Mélitz, and George M. von Furstenberg, pp. 51-66. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2004.
"Bank Failures in Banking Panics: Risky Banks or Road Kill?" (with R. W. Hafer). In Bank and Financial Market Efficiency: Global Perspectives, volume 5, Research in Banking and Finance, edited by Iftekhar Hasan and William C. Hunter, pp. 47–70. Amsterdam: Elsevier Ltd., 2004.
"The Economics of International Monies" (with James R. Lothian). In Monetary Integration, Markets, and Regulation, volume 4, Research in Banking and Finance, edited by Michele Bagella, Leonardo Becchetti, Iftekhar Hasan, and William Curt Hunter, pp. 67–89. Amsterdam: Elsevier Ltd., 2004.
"Money Growth and Inflation in the United States" In Monetary Policy and Taiwan's Economy, edited by Gerald P. Dwyer Jr., Jin-Lung Lin, Jia-Dong Shea, and Chung-Shu Wu, pp. 67–85. Cheltenham, United Kingdom: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, 2002.
"How was Milton Friedman Distinctive as a Teacher?" In The Intellectual Legacy of Milton Friedman, edited by Daniel Hammond, volume 1,
pp. 3–8, Cheltenham, United Kingdom: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, 1999.
"Is E-commerce a Revolution?" E*Journal 1 (Fall 1999).
"Is There a Future for Electronic Currency on the World Wide Web?" E*Journal 1 (Winter 1999).
"Is There a Future for Electronic Cash in the United States?," Journal of Internet Banking and Commerce 3 (November 1998), http://www.arraydev.com/commerce/JIBC/articles.htm.
"Suspensions of Payments and Bank Failures" (with Iftekhar Hasan). Rethinking Bank Regulation: What Should Regulators Do? Proceedings of a
Conference on Bank Structure and Competition, pp. 401–20, Chicago: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 1996.
"Testing Random Number Generators: Part 2" (with K. B. Williams). C/C++ Users Journal 14 (August 1996), pp. 55–66.
"Testing Random Number Generators" (with K. B. Williams). C/C++ Users Journal 14 (June 1996), pp. 39–48.
"Quick and Portable Random Number Generators." C/C++ Users Journal 13 (June 1995), pp. 33–44.
"Are National Stock Markets Linked?" (with R. W. Hafer). (Amended and updated version of earlier paper with same title.) In Handbook of
International Financial Market Integration, edited by Stanley R. Stansell, pp. 235–58. Oxford: Blackwells, 1993.
"The Cyclical Effects of the Unemployment Insurance (UI) Program" (with Bruce H. Dunson and S. Charles Maurice). Unemployment Insurance
Occasional Paper 91–3. Employment and Training Administration, U.S. Department of Labor.
"Bubbles or Fundamentals: New Evidence from the Great Bull Markets" (with Gary J. Santoni). In Crashes and Panics: The Lessons from
History, edited by Eugene N. White, pp. 188–210. Homewood, Illinois: Dow Jones-Irwin, 1990.
"Do Fundamentals, Bubbles, or Neither Determine Stock Prices? International Evidence" (with R. W. Hafer). In The Stock Market: Bubbles,
Volatility, and Chaos, edited by Gerald P. Dwyer Jr. and R. W. Hafer, pp. 31–68. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1990.
"The Effect of the Double Nickel Speed Limit on Death Rates" (with Christopher Curran). In Essays in Law and Economics: Corporations, Accident
Prevention and Compensation for Losses, edited by Michael Faure and Roger Van den Bergh, pp. 117–56. Selected papers from
conferences sponsored by the European Association of Law and Economics. Antwerpen-Apeldoorn: MAKLU, 1989.
"Contagion Effects and Banks Closing in the Free Banking Period" (with Iftekhar Hasan). In The Financial Services Industry in the Year 2000:
Risk and Efficiency, Proceedings of a Conference on Bank Structure and Competition, pp. 153–77. Chicago: Federal Reserve Bank of
Chicago, 1988.
"Tests of Some Alternative Theories of Individual Choice Behavior" (with Raymond C. Battalio and John H. Kagel). In Innovations in Quantitative
Economics: Essays in Honor of Robert L. Basmann, edited by Daniel J. Slottje, pp. 3–30. Volume 5, Advances in Econometrics.
Greenwich, Connecticut: JAI Press Inc., 1986.
"Discussion." In 1985 Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section, American Statistical Association, pp. 110–11.
"Money, Deficits, and Inflation: A Comment." In Understanding Monetary Regimes, edited by Karl Brunner and Allan H. Meltzer, pp.
197–205. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Volatility. 22. Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1985.
"Inflation and Government Deficits: What is the Connection?" In Supply-Side Economics in the 1980s, pp. 177–81 and 211–14.
Westport, Connecticut: Quorom Books, 1982.
Curriculum Vitae
Education
Ph.D., Economics, University of Chicago, 1979
Dissertation: An Explanation of the Gibson Paradox
Committee: Milton Friedman, Robert E. Lucas Jr., Sam Peltzman
M.A., Economics, University of Tennessee, 1973
B.B.A., cum laude, Business, Government, and Society, University of Washington, 1969
Federal Reserve Bank Employment
Director, Center on Financial Innovation and Financial Stability, 2009–present
Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, 1998–2008
Assistant Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, 1997–98
Finance Team Leader, 1997–2008
Visiting Scholar, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
(full time) 1995–96
(part time) 1996–97
Visiting Scholar, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 1987–89
Economist (part time), Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 1976–77
Junior Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 1972–74, Summer 1975
University Employment
Professor, Clemson University, 1989–99
Acting Head, Department of Economics, Clemson University, 1992–93
Associate Professor, University of Houston, 1984–89
Assistant Professor, Emory University, 1981–84
Assistant Professor, Texas A&M University, 1977–81
Professional Appointments
Adjunct Professor, University of Carlos III, Madrid, 2005–present
Adjunct Lecturer, Trinity College, Dublin, 2009–present
Member, Institute for Business Development, University of Carlos III, Madrid, 2010–present
Research Associate, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Australian National University, 2009–present
Visiting Scholar, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, April 2008
Visiting Scholar, Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance, Cambridge University, April 2006 and November 2007
Visiting Scholar, Institute for International Integration Studies, Trinity College Dublin, November 2005
Adjunct Professor, University of Rome at "Tor Vergata," 2000 to 2004
Adjunct faculty member, departments of Finance and Economics, University of Georgia, 1999, 2000 and 2003
Visiting Professor, Department of Economics, Emory University, 2001
Temporary Instructor, Departments of Finance and Economics, University of Georgia, 1999 and 2000
Visiting Professor of Economics, Georgia State University, Summer 1997
Visiting Scholar, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, 1982–84, 1994
Visiting Scholar, Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, July 1995
Visiting Financial Economist, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, July 1990
Lecturer or Instructor (part time)
University of Missouri at St. Louis
American Institute of Banking (St. Louis)
Belleville (Illinois) Area College, 1972–74
Research Associate, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Summer 1972
Professional Activities
Editorial Board Member, Journal of Financial Stability, 2003–present
Editorial Board Member, Economic Inquiry, 2002–present
Editorial Board Member, Research in Banking and Finance, 2000–2004
Editorial Board Member, Studies in Economics and Finance, 1996–1998
President, Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 2003–2005
Treasurer, Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 1997–2003
Member Executive Committee, Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 1997–2007
President, Association of Private Enterprise Education, 2008–2009
Vice President, Association of Private Enterprise Education, 2007–2008
Member Executive Committee, Association of Private Enterprise Education, 2002–2006, 2009–2010
Member Board of Directors, Western Economic Association, 2005–2008
Chair, Search Committee for Economic Inquiry editor, 2006–2007
Member Scientific Committee, Tor Vergata Financial Conference, 2001–present
Research Grants
National Science Foundation, "Collaborative Research on Rational Expectations and Learning: An Experimental Analysis," 1991–93.
Earhart Foundation, Fellowship Research Grant, "Why Do Banks Promise to Pay Par on Demand?" Summer 1991.
Fellowships, Honorary Societies, and Awards
Gerald P. Dwyer Prize in Financial Econometrics created by Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 2008
Best Article Award, Economic Inquiry, 2006
Distinguished Scholar Award, Association for Private Enterprise Education, 2006
Earhart Foundation Fellowship, 1975–1977
Intercollegiate Studies Institute Fellowship, 1974–1975
National Science Foundation Traineeship, 1970–1972
Beta Gamma Sigma; Phi Kappa Phi
Gerald Dwyer