Economists

Gerald P. Dwyer is Director of the Center for Financial Innovation and Stability at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and an adjunct professor at the University of Carlos III in Madrid. At the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, he is in charge of the finance group in the Research Department.

Since receiving his Ph.D. at the University of Chicago, he has been a faculty member at Texas A&M University, Emory University, the University of Houston and Clemson University. Dr. Dwyer also has been associated with the Federal Reserve Banks of St. Louis and Chicago.

Dr. Dwyer's research has been published in leading economics and finance journals. His research also has appeared in the Reviews published by the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta and St. Louis as well as in books and conference volumes. He is on the editorial boards of the Journal of Financial Stability and Economic Inquiry. He is president of the Association for Private Enterprise Education and a past president of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics. His research interests are in banking and financial markets.

Research Interests

Journal Publications

"Weekly U.S. and State Bond Prices" (with R. W. Hafer and Warren E. Weber). Historical Methods 32 (Winter 1999), pp. 37–42.

"Branching Restrictions and Bank Offices." Managerial Finance 23, no. 2 (1997), pp. 65–77.

"Index Arbitrage and Nonlinear Dynamics between the Futures and Cash S&P 500" (with Peter Locke and Wei Yu). Review of Financial Studies 9 (Spring 1996), pp. 301–32.

"Bank Runs in the Free Banking Period" (with Iftekhar Hasan). Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 26 (May 1994), pp. 271–88.

"Tests of Rational Expectations in a Stark Setting." (with Arlington W. Williams, Raymond C. Battalio and Timothy I. Mason). Economic Journal 103 (May 1993), pp. 586–601.

"Cointegration and Market Efficiency" (with Myles Wallace). Journal of International Money and Finance 11 (August 1992), pp. 318–27 (lead article).

"Stabilization Policy Can Lead to Chaos." Economic Inquiry 30 (January 1992), pp. 40&nash;46.

"Tests of Competing Theories of Consumer Choice and the Representative Consumer Hypothesis" (with Raymond C. Battalio and John H. Kagel). Economic Journal 97 (December 1987), pp. 842–56.

"Government Revenue from Creation of Government and Private Money" (with Thomas R. Saving). Journal of Monetary Economics 17 (March 1986), pp. 239–49.

"Federal Deficits, Interest Rates, and Monetary Policy." Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 17 (November 1985, Part 2), pp. 655–81.

"Money, Income, and Prices in the United Kingdom: 1870–1913." Economic Inquiry 23 (July 1985), pp. 415–35.

"Bliss Points vs. Minimum Needs: Tests of Competing Motivational Models" (with Raymond C. Battalio and John H. Kagel). Behavioural Processes 11 (1985), pp. 61–77.

"The Gibson Paradox: A Cross-country Analysis." Economica 51 (May 1984), pp. 109–27 (lead article). Reprinted in The Intellectual Legacy of Milton Friedman, edited by Daniel Hammond, Volume II, pp. 539–57.

"Robert Giffen and the Irish Potato" (with Cotton M. Lindsay). American Economic Review 74 (March 1984), pp. 188–92.

"Inflation and Government Deficits." Economic Inquiry 20 (July 1982), pp. 315–29 (lead article). Comment by Roger W. Garrison, 22 (October 1984), pp. 593–96. "Inflation and Government Deficits: A Reply," same issue, pp. 597–601.

"Are Expectations of Inflation Rational? Or, Is Variation of the Expected Real Interest Rate Unpredictable?" Journal of Monetary Economics 8 (July 1981), pp. 59–84.

"The Effects of the Banking Acts of 1933 and 1935 on Capital Investment in Commercial Banking." Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 13 (May 1981), pp. 192–204.

"Saving and the Rate of Interest: A Clarifying Note" (with Bruce Bender). Journal of Political Economy 88 (April 1980), pp. 400–05.

"Social Security Private Accounts: A Risky Proposition?" Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, Third Quarter 2005.

"The News in Financial Asset Returns" (with Cesare Robotti). Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, First Quarter 2004.

"Modern Economic Growth and Recent Stagnation" (with Scott L. Baier and Robert Tamura). Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, Third Quarter 2003.

"Are Money Growth and Inflation Still Related?" (with R. W. Hafer). Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, Second Quarter 1999, pp. 32–43.

"The Federal Government's Budget Surplus: Cause for Celebration?" (with R. W. Hafer). Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, Third Quarter 1998, pp. 42–51.

"Wildcat Banking, Banking Panics, and Free Banking in the United States." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, December 1996, 1–20.

"Rules and Discretion in Monetary Policy." Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 75 (May/June 1993), pp. 3–13.

"Bank Runs and Private Remedies." (with R. Alton Gilbert). Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 71 (May/June 1989), 43–61. Reprinted in Bank Management and Regulation: A Book of Readings, edited by Anthony Saunders, Gregory F. Udell and Lawrence J. White, 1992.

"Interest Rates and Economic Announcements" (with R. W. Hafer). Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 71 (March/April 1989), pp. 34–46.

"Are National Stock Markets Linked?" (with R. W. Hafer). Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 70 (November/December 1988), pp. 3–14.

"Is Money Irrelevant?" (with R. W. Hafer). Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 70 (May/June 1988), pp. 1–17.

"Is the Dollar Overvalued in Foreign-Exchange Markets?" Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review 69 (March 1984), pp. 51–58.

"Is Inflation a Consequence of Government Deficits?" Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review 67 (August 1982), pp. 25–32.

"Branching, Holding Companies, and Banking Concentration in the Eighth District" (with William C. Niblack). Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 56 (July 1974), pp. 11–23.

"Economic Slowdown: Demand or Supply Induced?" Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 56 (May 1974), pp. 8–14.

"Is Money Growth a Leading Indicator of Inflation?" Forthcoming, conference volume from an international conference on the Conduct of Monetary Policy, held June 1998 at Academia Sinica.

"How was Milton Friedman Distinctive as a Teacher?" In The Intellectual Legacy of Milton Friedman, edited by Daniel Hammond, Volume 1, pp. 3–8, Cheltenham, United Kingdom: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, 1999.

"Is E-commerce a Revolution?" E*Journal 1 (Fall 1999).

"Is There a Future for Electronic Currency on the World Wide Web?" E*Journal 1 (Winter 1999).

"Is There a Future for Electronic Cash in the United States?" Journal of Internet Banking and Commerce 3 (November 1998), http://www.arraydev.com/commerce/JIBC/articles.htm.

"Suspensions of Payments and Bank Failures" (with Iftekhar Hasan). Rethinking Bank Regulation: What Should Regulators Do? Proceedings of a Conference on Bank Structure and Competition, pp. 401–20, Chicago: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 1996.

"Testing Random Number Generators: Part 2" (with K. B. Williams). C/C++ Users Journal 14 (August 1996), pp. 55–66.

"Testing Random Number Generators" (with K. B. Williams). C/C++ Users Journal 14 (June 1996), pp. 39–48.

"Quick and Portable Random Number Generators." C/C++ Users Journal 13 (June 1995), pp. 33–44.

"Are National Stock Markets Linked?" (with R. W. Hafer). (Amended and updated version of earlier paper with same title.) In Handbook of International Financial Market Integration, edited by Stanley R. Stansell, pp. 235–58. Oxford: Blackwells, 1993.

"The Cyclical Effects of the Unemployment Insurance (UI) Program" (with Bruce H. Dunson and S. Charles Maurice). Unemployment Insurance Occasional Paper 91–3. Employment and Training Administration, U.S. Department of Labor.

"Bubbles or Fundamentals: New Evidence from the Great Bull Markets" (with Gary J. Santoni). In Crashes and Panics: The Lessons from History, edited by Eugene N. White, pp. 188–210. Homewood, Illinois: Dow Jones-Irwin, 1990.

"Do Fundamentals, Bubbles, or Neither Determine Stock Prices? International Evidence" (with R. W. Hafer). In The Stock Market: Bubbles, Volatility, and Chaos, edited by Gerald P. Dwyer Jr. and R. W. Hafer, pp. 31–68. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1990.

"The Effect of the Double Nickel Speed Limit on Death Rates" (with Christopher Curran). In Essays in Law and Economics: Corporations, Accident Prevention and Compensation for Losses, edited by Michael Faure and Roger Van den Bergh, pp. 117–56. Selected papers from conferences sponsored by the European Association of Law and Economics. Antwerpen-Apeldoorn: MAKLU, 1989.

"Contagion Effects and Banks Closing in the Free Banking Period" (with Iftekhar Hasan). In The Financial Services Industry in the Year 2000: Risk and Efficiency, Proceedings of a Conference on Bank Structure and Competition, pp. 153–77. Chicago: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 1988.

"Tests of Some Alternative Theories of Individual Choice Behavior" (with Raymond C. Battalio and John H. Kagel). In Innovations in Quantitative Economics: Essays in Honor of Robert L. Basmann, edited by Daniel J. Slottje, pp. 3–30. Volume 5, Advances in Econometrics. Greenwich, Connecticut: JAI Press Inc., 1986.

"Discussion." In 1985 Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section, American Statistical Association, pp. 110–11.

"Money, Deficits, and Inflation: A Comment." In Understanding Monetary Regimes, edited by Karl Brunner and Allan H. Meltzer, pp. 197–205. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Volatility. 22. Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1985.

"Inflation and Government Deficits: What is the Connection?" In Supply-Side Economics in the 1980s, pp. 177–81 and 211–14. Westport, Connecticut: Quorom Books, 1982.

Book Reviews

A History of Corporate Finance, by Jonathon Barron Baskin and Paul J. Miranti, Jr. Journal of Economic History 58 (June 1998), pp. 605&ndash07.

The Economics of Financial Markets, by Hendrik H. Houthakker and Peter J. Williamson. Journal of Economic Literature 35 (December 1997), pp. 2049–51.

Advances in Behavioral Finance, edited by Richard H. Thaler. Journal of Economic History 54 (September 1994), pp. 730–31.

Paying for the German Inflation, by Michael L. Hughes. Journal of Economic History 49 (March 1989), pp. 214–15.

German Macroeconomic History, 1880–1979 by Andrea Sommariva and Giuseppe Tullio. Journal of Economic History 47 (December 1987), pp. 1017–18.

"Wonnacott and Wonnacott's Economics," pp. 62–80, and "Roger Miller's Economics Today." In American Economics Texts, edited by James B. Taylor, pp. 267–85. (Reston, Virginia: Young America's Foundation, 1982.)

Money and Banking in Contemporary Japan, by Yashio Suzuki. Southern Economic Journal 47 (April 1981), pp. 1171–72.

"Suspensions of Payments, Bank Failures and the Nonbank Public's Losses" (with Iftekhar Hasan), under revision.

"Portable Random Number Generators" (with K.B. Williams), revised and resubmitted.

"Time Aggregation and Threshold Autoregressions" (with Richard Ashley), under revision.

"Bank Failures in Banking Panics: Risky Banks or Road Kill?" (with R. W. Hafer), revised and resubmitted.

"Nonlinear Aspects of Business Fluctuations" (with Cora Barnhart), working paper.

"Trading Mechanisms and Price Discovery: The Spot and Futures Markets for Crude Oil" (with Albert Ballinger and Ann Gillette), in progress.

"How Important Are Capital and Total Factor Productivity for Economic Growth?" (with Scott Baier and Robert Tamura), working paper.

"Are Stocks in New Industries Like Lottery Tickets?" (with Cora Barnhart), preliminary draft.

Education

Ph.D., Economics, University of Chicago, 1979
Dissertation: An Explanation of the Gibson Paradox
Committee: Milton Friedman, Robert E. Lucas Jr., Sam Peltzman
M.A., Economics, University of Tennessee, 1973
B.B.A., cum laude, Business, Government, and Society, University of Washington, 1969

Federal Reserve Bank Employment

Director, Center on Financial Innovation and Financial Stability, 2009–present
Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, 1998–2008
Assistant Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, 1997–98
Finance Team Leader, 1997–2008
Visiting Scholar, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
(full time) 1995–96
(part time) 1996–97
Visiting Scholar, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 1987–89
Economist (part time), Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 1976–77
Junior Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 1972–74, Summer 1975

University Employment

Professor, Clemson University, 1989–99
Acting Head, Department of Economics, Clemson University, 1992–93
Associate Professor, University of Houston, 1984–89
Assistant Professor, Emory University, 1981–84
Assistant Professor, Texas A&M University, 1977–81

Professional Appointments

Visiting Professor, Department of Economics, Emory University, 2001
Temporary Instructor, Departments of Finance and Economics, University of Georgia, 1999 and 2000
Visiting Professor of Economics, Georgia State University, Summer 1997
Visiting Scholar, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, 1982–84, 1994
Visiting Scholar, Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, July 1995
Visiting Financial Economist, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, July 1990
Lecturer or Instructor (part time)
University of Missouri at St. Louis
American Institute of Banking (St. Louis)
Belleville (Illinois) Area College, 1972–74
Research Associate, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Summer 1972

Professional Activities

Referee for various journals and the National Science Foundation.

Member, Editorial Board, Studies in Economics and Finance, 1996–present.

Member, Editorial Board, Research in Banking and Finance, 2000–present.

Treasurer, Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 1997–present.

Organized a conference on "The Stock Market: Programmed Chaos?" at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in 1988 and edited the conference volume (with R. W. Hafer).

Member of Program Committee: Financial Management Association meeting, 1992 and 1994.

Member of Program Committee: Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics meeting, 1999, 2000, and 2001.

Research Grants

National Science Foundation, "Collaborative Research on Rational Expectations and Learning: An Experimental Analysis," 1991–93.

Earhart Foundation, Fellowship Research Grant, "Why Do Banks Promise to Pay Par on Demand?" Summer 1991.

Fellowships and Honorary Societies

Earhart Foundation Fellowship, 1975–77
Intercollegiate Studies Institute Fellowship, 1974–75
National Science Foundation Traineeship, 1970–72
Beta Gamma Sigma; Phi Kappa Phi

Dissertations Supervised

Ayes Evrensel. "The Effectiveness of IMF-Supported Stabilization Programs." May 1999. Visiting Assistant Professor of Economics, University of California, San Diego.

David Robinson. "Solving Nonlinear Stochastic Growth Models: The Projection and Finite Element Methods of Solution." August 1998. Programmer, ISS Corp.

Cora Barnhart. "Nonlinear Aspects of Business Fluctuations." December 1995. Visiting Assistant Professor of Economics, Florida Atlantic University.

Wei Yu. "The Dynamics of Cash and Futures Markets for Stock." August 1992. Assistant Professor of Health Economics, Boston University.

Shehadah Deeb Hussein. "Sectoral Shifts: Sources and Effects on Aggregate Unemployment and Output in the United States." May 1988.

Khalil Yaazdi. "The Instability of the Demand for Money: A Time-Series Analysis of Money, Income, Prices and Interest Rates." August 1987. Associate Professor of Economics and Finance, University of St. Thomas.

Iftekhar Hasan. "Bank Panics, Contagion, and Information." August 1987. Professor of Finance, New Jersey Institute of Technology. Visiting Professor of Finance, New York University, 1999–2000.

Richard C. K. Burdekin. "The Interaction of Central Bank Behavior with Fiscal Policymaking and the Political Business Cycle: A Multi-Country Study." August 1985. Associate Professor of Economics, Claremont-McKenna College.

Teaching Experience

Ph.D.: monetary economics, econometrics (time series and simultaneous equations), short course on nonlinear time series and financial applications. MBA: statistics. Undergraduate Economics: principles of economics, money and banking, and macroeconomics. Undergraduate Finance: money and banking.

Presented invited papers at a "Conference on Supply-Side Economics in the 1980s" sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, 1982; a "Critical Economic Issues Roundtable" at the Lehrman Institute, 1983; a conference on "Monetary Policy in a Changing Financial Environment" at the American Enterprise Institute, 1985; International Conference on the Conduct of Monetary Policy, 1998; the Public Choice meetings, 1983; Sandberg Speaker Series, University of Wyoming, 1997; the Southern Economic Association meetings, 1981, 1984, 1987, and 1997; the Southwestern Economic Association meetings, 1983; and the Western Economic Association meetings, 1981, 1986, 1987, 1992, and 1994.

Presented contributed papers at the Bank Market Structure Conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 1988 and 1996; the Cliometrics Society meetings, 1988 and 1994; the Econometric Society Winter meetings, 1979, 1981, and 1983, 6th World Congress, 1990, Summer meetings, 1992; the Economic Science Association meetings, 1990; the Financial Management Association meetings, 1991 and 1992; the Midwest Macroeconomics Conference, 1997; the Public Choice meetings, 1981 and 1996; the Conference on Computation in Economics and Finance, 1997; the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics meetings, 1996, 1997 and 1998; the Southern Economic Association meetings, 1983, 1988, 1990, 1996, and 1997; the Southern Finance Association meetings, 1996; the Southwester Finance Association meetings, 1998; and the Western Economic Association meetings, 1979, 1980, 1983, 1997, and 1998.