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The Inflation Project


July 28, 2011

Longer-term deflation probabilities tick down

Prices of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) with similar maturity dates can be used to measure probabilities of a net decline in the consumer price index over the five-year period starting in early 2011. One measure of this deflation probability was 11 percent on July 27, down slightly from 12 percent a week earlier. An alternative lower bound on the probability of deflation remained at 0 percent after rounding.

Categories: deflation