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The Inflation Project


Longer-term deflation probabilities little changed

Prices of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) with similar maturity dates can be used to measure probabilities of a net decline in the consumer price index over the five-year period starting in early 2011. One measure of this deflation probability ticked up from 12 percent on December 7 to 13 percent on December 14. An alternative lower bound on the probability of deflation has remained at 0 percent since November 15.

Categories: deflation