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Inflation Project


Deflation Probabilities

Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) markets, described in a technical appendix, this weekly report provides two measures of the probability of consumer price index (CPI) deflation through 2018.

 Deflation probabilities remain at 0 percent
September 18, 2014

The 2013–18 deflation probability—based on the 5-year TIPS issued in April 2013 and the 10-year TIPS issued in July 2008—was 0 percent on September 17, where it has been since early September 2013. The 2014–19 deflation probability is also 0 percent as of September 17.

Prices of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) with similar maturity dates can be used to measure probabilities of a net decline in the consumer price index over the five-year period starting in early 2013 or the five-year period starting in early 2014.

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