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Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) markets, described in a technical appendix, this weekly report provides two measures of the probability of consumer price index (CPI) deflation through 2016.
Longer-term deflation probabilities remain unchangedPrices of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) with similar maturity dates can be used to measure probabilities of a net decline in the consumer price index over the five-year period starting in early 2011. One measure of this deflation probability was 11 percent on February 15, the same as a week earlier. An alternative lower bound on the probability of deflation has remained at 0 percent since November 15.
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Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
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