Real GDP Growth Performance and Outlook, Q2 2007

Second Quarter 2007
 
Updated Forecast: Real GDP Growth Performance and Outlook
 

Estimates for regional real GDP growth for 2006 were revised up from the first quarter 0.3 percentage points to 5.4 percent. For 2007, the real GDP forecast was revised up 0.3 percentage points to 4.6 percent. Upward revisions for most major economies were only partially offset by a 0.4 percentage point downward revisions for Mexico. Forecasts for 2008 suggest some moderation of growth ahead, most notably for Venezuela, but the 4.2 percent forecast is still quite positive.

Real GDP Growth Performance and Outlook
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Argentina –4.4 –10.9 8.8 9.0 9.2 8.5 7.6 5.5
Bolivia 1.7 2.4 2.9 3.9 4.1 4.6 4.4 4.5
Brazil 1.3 1.9 0.5 4.9 2.3 3.7 4.0 4.0
Chile 3.4 2.2 3.9 6.2 6.3 4.0 5.6 5.1
Colombia 1.5 1.9 3.9 4.8

5.1

6.8 5.5 4.7
Costa Rica 1.1 2.9 6.4 4.1 5.9 7.9 5.6 4.6
Cuba 3.0 1.5 2.9 4.3 9.5 9.5 7.5 5.7
Dom. Republic 4.0 4.5 –1.9 2.0 9.3 10.7 6.7 4.8
Ecuador 5.3 4.2 3.6 7.9 4.7 4.1 3.1 2.8
El Salvador 1.7 2.3 2.3 1.8 2.8 4.2 3.7 3.7
Guatemala 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.7 3.2 4.6 4.2 4.1
Honduras 2.6 2.7 3.5 4.6 4.2 6.0 4.8 4.4
Jamaica 1.5 1.1 2.3 0.9 1.4 2.5 2.8 2.8
Mexico 0.0 0.8 1.4 4.2 3.0 4.8 3.1 3.8
Nicaragua 3.0 0.8 2.3 5.1 4.0 3.7 3.6 4.2
Panama 0.6 2.2 4.2 7.6 6.9 8.1 6.8 6.3
Paraguay 2.1 0.0 3.8 4.1 2.9 3.9 3.8 3.9
Peru 0.2 5.2 3.9 5.2 6.4 8.0 6.8 5.7
Uruguay –3.4 –11.0 2.2 11.8 6.6 7.0 5.0 3.8
Venezuela 3.4 –8.9 –7.8 18.3 10.3 10.3 6.5 3.5
Totals 0.3 0.2 1.7 5.8 4.3 5.4 4.6 4.2

Sources: International Monetary Fund, Consensus Economics, Latin Focus, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and the Economist Intelligence Unit

Annual percent change

The data presented here represent the average of available forecasts. Individual country forecasts are weighted by GDP to produce the average for the region.