Real GDP Growth Performance and Outlook, Q3 2007

Third Quarter 2007
Updated Forecast: Real GDP Growth Performance and Outlook

Expectations for regional real GDP growth for 2006 were revised up from the second quarter 0.2 percentage points to 4.8 percent. For 2008, the real GDP forecast was revised up 0.1 percentage points to 4.3 percent. Upward revisions to current your forecasts for most major economies were partially offset by a 0.5 percentage point downward revision for Ecuador and a 0.1 percentage point cut in Argentina's expected real GDP rate of growth. Colombia and Venezuela saw 0.6 percentage point boosts in their forecasted rate of growth for 2007, while Brazil's was increased 0.4 percentage points. Mexico's 2007 outlook was unchanged, but its 2008 forecast was revised down 0.2 percentage points.

Real GDP Growth Performance and Outlook
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Argentina –4.4 –10.9 8.8 9.0 9.2 8.5 7.5 5.3
Bolivia 1.7 2.4 2.9 3.9 4.1 4.6 4.5 4.8
Brazil 1.3 1.9 0.5 4.9 2.3 3.7 4.5 4.3
Chile 3.4 2.2 3.9 6.2 6.3 4.0 5.8 5.1
Colombia 1.5 1.9 3.9 4.8

5.1

6.8 6.1 5.0
Costa Rica 1.1 2.9 6.4 4.1 5.9 8.2 5.8 5.0
Cuba 3.0 1.5 2.9 4.3 9.5 11.1 7.0 5.4
Dom. Republic 4.0 4.5 –1.9 2.0 9.3 10.7 7.1 5.0
Ecuador 5.3 4.2 3.6 7.9 4.7 4.1 2.6 2.7
El Salvador 1.7 2.3 2.3 1.8 2.8 4.2 3.7 3.7
Guatemala 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.7 3.2 4.6 4.8 4.5
Honduras 2.6 2.7 3.5 4.6 4.2 6.0 5.2 4.4
Jamaica 1.5 1.1 2.3 0.9 1.4 2.5 2.4 2.8
Mexico 0.0 0.8 1.4 4.2 3.0 4.8 3.1 3.6
Nicaragua 3.0 0.8 2.3 5.1 4.0 3.7 3.6 4.1
Panama 0.6 2.2 4.2 7.6 6.9 8.1 7.4 7.2
Paraguay 2.1 0.0 3.8 4.1 2.9 4.3 3.8 3.9
Peru 0.2 5.2 3.9 5.2 6.4 8.0 7.0 5.9
Uruguay –3.4 –11.0 2.2 11.8 6.6 7.0 5.3 3.9
Venezuela 3.4 –8.9 –7.8 18.3 10.3 10.3 7.1 3.9
Totals 0.3 0.2 1.7 5.8 4.3 5.4 4.8 4.3

Sources: International Monetary Fund, Consensus Economics, Latin Focus, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and the Economist Intelligence Unit

Annual percent change

The data presented here represent the average of available forecasts. Individual country forecasts are weighted by GDP to produce the average for the region.