Real GDP Growth Performance and Outlook, Q4 2007

Fourth Quarter 2007
Updated Forecast: Real GDP Growth Performance and Outlook

Expectations for regional real GDP growth for 2007 were revised up 0.3 percentage points in the fourth quarter to 5 percent. For 2008, the real GDP forecast was revised up 0.1 percentage points to 4.4 percent. Upward revisions to current year forecasts for most major economies were partially offset by a 0.6 percentage point downward revision for Ecuador and a 0.3 percentage point cut in Chile's expected real GDP rate of growth. Argentine and Venezuela saw the largest upward revisions to their 2008 forecasts (0.7 and 1.7 percentage points, respectively), while Chile's declined 0.3 percentage points, and Mexico's real GDP forecast was revised down by 0.4 percentage points.

Real GDP Growth Performance and Outlook
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Argentina –4.4 –10.9 8.8 9.0 9.2 8.5 8.0 6.0
Bolivia 1.7 2.4 2.9 3.9 4.0 4.6 3.9 4.4
Brazil 1.3 2.7 1.1 5.7 2.9 3.7 4.8 4.5
Chile 3.5 2.2 4.0 6.0 5.7 4.0 5.4 4.8
Colombia 1.5 1.9 3.9 4.9 4.7 6.8 6.6 5.3
Costa Rica 1.1 2.9 6.4 4.3 5.9 8.2 6.1 4.9
Cuba 3.0 1.5 2.9 4.3 9.5 11.1 6.4 5.4
Dominican Rep. 3.6 4.4 –1.9 2.0 9.3 10.7 7.8 4.6
Ecuador 5.3 4.2 3.6 8.0 6.0 3.9 2.1 2.6
El Salvador 1.7 2.3 2.3 1.8 3.1 4.2 4.1 3.3
Guatemala 2.4 3.9 2.5 3.2 3.5 4.9 5.2 4.6
Honduras 2.6 2.7 3.5 5.0 4.1 6.0 5.7 4.4
Jamaica 1.5 1.1 2.3 1.0 1.4 2.5 1.4 2.3
Mexico 0.0 0.8 1.4 4.2 2.8 4.8 3.0 3.2
Nicaragua 3.0 0.8 2.3 5.3 4.4 3.7 3.5 3.9
Panama 0.6 2.2 4.2 7.5 6.9 8.1 8.8 8.4
Paraguay 2.1 0.0 3.8 4.1 2.9 4.3 4.6 3.9
Peru 0.2 5.0 4.0 5.1 6.7 7.6 7.5 6.5
Uruguay –3.4 –11.0 2.2 11.8 6.6 7.0 5.8 4.3
Venezuela 3.4 –8.9 –7.8 18.3 10.3 10.3 8.4 5.6
Total 0.3 0.4 1.8 5.9 4.3 5.2 5.0 4.4

Sources: International Monetary Fund, Consensus Economics, Latin Focus, JP Morgan, and the Economist Intelligence Unit

Annual percent change

The data presented here represent the average of available forecasts. Individual country forecasts are weighted by GDP to produce the average for the region.