Regional Update (October-December 1997)

Index

Cover Story - Southeast to Mirror Nation's Overall Balance in 1998

Alabama to Reap Benefits of New Industry

Florida Continues to Drive Southeast Economy

Moderate Growth Pushes Georgia Past Post-Olympic Slowdown

Louisiana Economy Sends Mixed Signals

Some Bright Signs to Emerge for Mississippi

A Good but Not Great Year Ahead for Tennessee

Southeastern Economic Indicators

S outheastern Economic Indicators
Alabama
Quarterly Annual Averages
1996Q3 1996Q4 1997Q1 1997Q2 1997Q3 1993 1994 1995 1996
Total Payroll Employmenta 1,828.0 1,834.1 1,841.4 1,844.4 1,845.4 1,716.7 1,758.4 1,803.5 1,825.7
Year-over-Year Percent Change 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.0 2.5 2.4 2.6 1.2
Quarterly Percent Change 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1
Manufacturing Payroll Employmenta 381.5 381.2 382.6 379.8 377.6 384.2 386.4 391.8 383.0
Year-over-Year Percent Change -2.5 -2.1 -1.0 -0.7 -1.0 0.9 0.6 1.4 -2.3
Quarterly Percent Change -0.3 -0.1 0.4 -0.7 -0.6
Civilian Unemployment Rate 4.9 4.6 4.4 4.5 4.8 7.6 6.0 6.3 5.1
Initial Unemployment Claimsb 326.7 328.0 298.4 344.6 322.3 364.2 301.6 365.4 356.9
Year-over-Year Percent Change -15.3 -28.2 -26.5 -6.1 -1.3 2.2 -17.2 21.2 -2.3
Quarterly Percent Change -11.0 0.4 -9.0 15.5 -6.5
Single-Family Building Permitsc 14,450 13,953 13,385 14,759 14,168 12,815 14,443 13,412 14,566
Year-over-Year Percent Change 4.2 -4.8 -10.4 -1.1 -1.9 11.0 12.7 -7.1 8.6
Quarterly Percent Change -3.2 -3.4 -4.1 10.3 -4.0
Multifamily Building Permitsc 4,201 9,662 7,611 2,795 3,492 3,290 4,693 6,702 5,302
Year-over-Year Percent Change -38.8 28.9 146.7 -34.4 -16.9 39.5 42.6 42.8 -20.9
Quarterly Percent Change -1.4 130.0 -21.2 -63.3 25.0
Personal Incomed 86.7 87.6 89.0 89.9 --- 73.3 77.3 82.1 86.0
Year-over-Year Percent Change 5.1 5.2 5.8 4.9 --- 5.0 5.5 6.1 4.8
Quarterly Percent Change 1.3 1.0 1.7 1.0 ---
Birmingham
Total Payroll Employmenta 450.1 450.4 453.9 456.0 457.0 418.5 429.9 442.8 449.6
Year-over-Year Percent Change 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 2.3 2.7 3.0 1.5
Quarterly Percent Change 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.2
Civilian Unemployment Rate 3.0 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.3 5.6 4.1 4.3 3.2
Florida
Quarterly Annual Averages
1996Q3 1996Q4 1997Q1 1997Q2 1997Q3 1993 1994 1995 1996
Total Payroll Employmenta 6,206.5 6,263.0 6,314.9 6,380.5 6,425.8 5,571.5 5,799.4 5,996.2 6,182.8
Year-over-Year Percent Change 3.3 3.1 3.3 3.8 3.5 4.0 4.1 3.4 3.1
Quarterly Percent Change 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.7
Manufacturing Payroll Employmenta 492.1 492.4 492.4 492.9 493.4 485.2 484.0 486.5 490.6
Year-over-Year Percent Change 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.5 -0.2 0.5 0.8
Quarterly Percent Change 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1
Civilian Unemployment Rate 5.0 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.7 7.0 6.6 5.5 5.1
Initial Unemployment Claimsb 469.3 450.5 448.8 461.9 454.3 515.3 511.7 482.3 473.1
Year-over-Year Percent Change -3.0 -3.7 -8.3 -4.3 -3.2 -17.8 -0.7 -5.8 -1.9
Quarterly Percent Change -2.8 -4.0 -0.4 2.9 -1.7
Single-Family Building Permitsc 90,824 90,612 90,009 89,594 84,720 91,261 96,276 84,071 91,040
Year-over-Year Percent Change 7.0 9.8 0.1 -3.5 -6.7 9.0 5.5 -12.7 8.3
Quarterly Percent Change -2.1 -0.2 -0.7 -0.5 -5.4
Multifamily Building Permitsc 38,709 29,432 43,593 43,318 46,400 23,842 32,326 38,832 33,980
Year-over-Year Percent Change 8.4 -30.5 28.3 28.1 19.9 30.2 35.6 20.1 -12.5
Quarterly Percent Change 14.5 -24.0 48.1 -0.6 7.1
Personal Incomed 351.3 355.1 362.7 368.3 --- 292.5 306.7 328.1 348.8
Year-over-Year Percent Change 6.4 6.2 6.0 6.2 --- 8.0 4.8 7.0 6.3
Quarterly Percent Change 1.3 1.1 2.1 1.6 ---
Fort Lauderdale
Total Payroll Employmenta 610.0 613.9 619.4 628.6 633.4 540.1 564.8 584.7 606.5
Year-over-Year Percent Change 4.0 3.5 3.6 4.1 3.8 5.2 4.6 3.5 3.7
Quarterly Percent Change 1.0 0.6 0.9 1.5 0.8
Civilian Unemployment Rate 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.0 4.7 6.9 6.5 5.7 5.1
Jacksonville
Total Payroll Employmenta 495.5 503.2 509.5 513.7 516.0 438.6 459.4 482.2 495.5
Year-over-Year Percent Change 2.3 2.7 3.7 4.4 4.1 3.5 4.7 5.0 2.8
Quarterly Percent Change 0.7 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.4
Civilian Unemployment Rate 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.8 3.6 5.5 4.8 3.7 3.6
Miami
Total Payroll Employmenta 945.3 949.3 953.2 962.4 965.3 890.8 909.9 926.6 941.4
Year-over-Year Percent Change 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.6 2.1 3.9 2.1 1.8 1.6
Quarterly Percent Change 0.8 0.4 0.4 1.0 0.3
Civilian Unemployment Rate 7.2 7.2 7.4 7.5 6.9 8.1 8.4 7.3 7.3
Orlando
Total Payroll Employmenta 753.0 765.7 777.0 784.9 796.1 650.0 682.8 714.0 748.4
Year-over-Year Percent Change 5.1 5.1 6.1 5.7 5.7 5.1 5.0 4.6 4.8
Quarterly Percent Change 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.0 1.4
Civilian Unemployment Rate 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.4 6.2 5.6 4.5 3.8
Tampa
Total Payroll Employmenta 1,025.7 1,032.5 1,044.2 1,054.7 1,066.3 903.7 957.4 993.8 1,021.4
Year-over-Year Percent Change 3.0 2.7 3.1 3.9 4.0 4.2 5.9 3.8 2.8
Quarterly Percent Change 1.0 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.1
Civilian Unemployment Rate 3.8 3.8 3.5 3.7 3.5 6.4 5.3 4.4 3.9
West Palm Beach
Total Payroll Employmenta 419.6 422.6 426.0 430.9 437.3 369.5 386.1 399.1 416.4
Year-over-Year Percent Change 4.7 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.5 3.4 4.4
Quarterly Percent Change 1.3 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.5
Civilian Unemployment Rate 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.2 9.0 8.8 7.2 6.7
Georgia
Quarterly Annual Averages
1996Q3 1996Q4 1997Q1 1997Q2 1997Q3 1993 1994 1995 1996
Total Payroll Employmenta 3,553.9 3,558.7 3,560.3 3,582.4 3,625.6 3,109.1 3,265.8 3,402.2 3,528.8
Year-over-Year Percent Change 4.2 3.3 2.3 1.7 2.0 4.1 5.0 4.2 3.7
Quarterly Percent Change 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.6 1.2
Manufacturing Payroll Employmenta 585.4 588.2 588.3 588.1 586.7 558.3 577.3 586.9 584.8
Year-over-Year Percent Change 0.3 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.2 2.4 3.4 1.7 -0.4
Quarterly Percent Change 0.6 0.5 0.0 -0.0 -0.2
Civilian Unemployment Rate 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.4 4.4 5.8 5.2 4.9 4.6
Initial Unemployment Claimsb 355.8 363.0 341.6 317.3 297.8 408.1 387.8 408.4 370.2
Year-over-Year Percent Change -15.2 -11.0 -14.9 -12.1 -16.3 -9.3 -5.0 5.3 -9.3
Quarterly Percent Change -1.4 2.0 -5.9 -7.1 -6.2
Single-Family Building Permitsc 57,607 56,865 54,805 55,280 57,589 47,599 52,530 55,027 59,397
Year-over-Year Percent Change -2.4 -2.7 -9.5 -11.6 -0.0 13.1 10.4 4.8 7.9
Quarterly Percent Change -7.9 -1.3 -3.6 0.9 4.2
Multifamily Building Permitsc 17,224 11,964 14,433 22,232 14,072 6,275 12,330 17,198 15,477
Year-over-Year Percent Change 10.8 -17.2 -4.6 26.4 -18.3 153.1 96.5 39.5 -10.0
Quarterly Percent Change -2.1 -30.5 20.6 54.0 -36.7
Personal Incomed 170.9 172.9 177.0 179.5 --- 136.4 146.1 157.9 169.0
Year-over-Year Percent Change 7.6 6.6 7.9 6.8 --- 6.5 7.1 8.1 7.0
Quarterly Percent Change 1.7 1.2 2.4 1.4 ---
Atlanta
Total Payroll Employmenta 1,923.2 1,924.6 1,938.9 1,943.7 1,961.5 1,635.2 1,732.9 1,817.0 1,905.4
Year-over-Year Percent Change 5.5 4.1 3.6 2.2 2.0 5.5 6.0 4.9 4.9
Quarterly Percent Change 1.1 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.9
Civilian Unemployment Rate 3.8 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.6 5.3 4.7 4.3 3.8
Louisiana
Quarterly Annual Averages
1996Q3 1996Q4 1997Q1 1997Q2 1997Q3 1993 1994 1995 1996
Total Payroll Employmenta 1,815.0 1,827.1 1,830.8 1,837.6 1,839.0 1,658.6 1,722.1 1,772.3 1,810.9
Year-over-Year Percent Change 1.9 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.3 1.9 3.8 2.9 2.2
Quarterly Percent Change 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.1
Manufacturing Payroll Employmenta 188.6 188.2 188.1 189.0 189.3 185.4 186.5 188.0 188.2
Year-over-Year Percent Change 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.1
Quarterly Percent Change 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.2
Civilian Unemployment Rate 6.8 6.6 5.6 6.1 6.0 7.5 8.1 6.9 6.8
Initial Unemployment Claimsb 175.1 168.7 175.0 174.0 173.2 200.5 187.8 199.2 175.5
Year-over-Year Percent Change -9.6 -20.0 -6.1 1.3 -1.1 -18.5 -6.3 6.0 -11.9
Quarterly Percent Change 2.0 -3.7 3.7 -0.6 -0.4
Single-Family Building Permitsc 13,903 14,161 12,956 15,264 13,914 10,363 12,758 12,461 14,422
Year-over-Year Percent Change 6.4 7.2 -11.7 2.1 0.1 17.0 23.1 -2.3 15.7
Quarterly Percent Change -7.0 1.9 -8.5 17.8 -8.8
Multifamily Building Permitsc 2,366 4,055 3,655 4,880 1,928 863 2,024 2,262 3,576
Year-over-Year Percent Change 3.5 63.3 14.4 4.1 -18.5 -3.1 134.5 11.8 58.1
Quarterly Percent Change -49.5 71.4 -9.9 33.5 -60.5
Personal Incomed 86.1 86.9 88.5 89.2 --- 73.8 78.2 82.3 85.5
Year-over-Year Percent Change 3.9 4.6 5.4 4.6 --- 5.2 6.0 5.2 4.0
Quarterly Percent Change 1.0 0.9 1.8 0.8 ---
New Orleans
Total Payroll Employmenta 605.2 605.6 607.7 608.9 609.9 569.7 584.9 598.8 603.6
Year-over-Year Percent Change 0.8 1.0 1.4 0.8 0.8 1.5 2.7 2.4 0.8
Quarterly Percent Change 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2
Civilian Unemployment Rate 6.5 6.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 7.0 7.4 6.4 6.5
Mississippi
Quarterly Annual Averages
1996Q3 1996Q4 1997Q1 1997Q2 1997Q3 1993 1994 1995 1996
Total Payroll Employmenta 1,095.8 1,095.8 1,094.7 1,099.5 1,102.5 1,002.2 1,055.5 1,074.6 1,090.6
Year-over-Year Percent Change 1.9 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.6 4.4 5.3 1.8 1.5
Quarterly Percent Change 0.6 0.0 -0.1 0.4 0.3
Manufacturing Payroll Employmenta 245.6 242.1 242.3 242.6 240.7 255.7 261.0 257.8 245.7
Year-over-Year Percent Change -3.9 -3.9 -2.2 -2.0 -2.0 1.5 2.1 -1.2 -4.7
Quarterly Percent Change -0.8 -1.4 0.1 0.1 -0.8
Civilian Unemployment Rate 6.0 5.9 5.6 5.0 5.5 6.4 6.6 6.1 6.1
Initial Unemployment Claimsb 174.6 201.2 172.7 185.9 165.2 160.3 161.6 199.2 194.9
Year-over-Year Percent Change -20.7 -8.1 -18.9 -2.6 -5.4 -22.7 0.8 23.2 -2.1
Quarterly Percent Change -8.5 15.2 -14.1 7.7 -11.2
Single-Family Building Permitsc 7,722 8,061 7,153 8,181 8,182 6,870 7,976 7,267 8,061
Year-over-Year Percent Change -1.4 4.9 -13.9 0.4 6.0 25.2 16.1 -8.9 10.9
Quarterly Percent Change -5.3 4.4 -11.3 14.4 0.0
Multifamily Building Permitsc 1,448 2,064 2,034 3,606 1,779 1,246 2,957 3,486 2,306
Year-over-Year Percent Change -42.3 -53.0 -18.7 12.3 22.8 49.4 137.3 17.9 -33.9
Quarterly Percent Change -54.9 42.5 -1.4 77.3 -50.7
Personal Incomed 48.2 48.4 49.3 49.8 --- 39.5 42.5 45.1 47.7
Year-over-Year Percent Change 6.2 5.0 5.4 4.6 --- 6.5 7.7 6.2 5.7
Quarterly Percent Change 1.2 0.4 1.8 1.1 ---
Jackson
Total Payroll Employmenta 216.2 217.1 217.0 217.7 218.6 195.7 204.5 209.7 215.8
Year-over-Year Percent Change 2.6 2.5 1.2 1.0 1.1 2.9 4.5 2.5 2.9
Quarterly Percent Change 0.3 0.4 -0.0 0.3 0.4
Civilian Unemployment Rate 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.0 3.1 4.7 4.5 3.9 3.6
Tennessee
Quarterly Annual Averages
1996Q3 1996Q4 1997Q1 1997Q2 1997Q3 1993 1994 1995 1996
Total Payroll Employmenta 2,533.5 2,549.9 2,555.6 2,552.5 2,553.1 2,328.3 2,422.9 2,498.8 2,535.3
Year-over-Year Percent Change 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 3.7 4.1 3.1 1.5
Quarterly Percent Change 0.2 0.6 0.2 -0.1 0.0
Manufacturing Payroll Employmenta 520.5 520.9 519.3 515.9 512.8 528.5 539.0 538.9 522.4
Year-over-Year Percent Change -2.8 -2.0 -1.3 -1.2 -1.5 2.7 2.0 -0.0 -3.1
Quarterly Percent Change -0.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6
Civilian Unemployment Rate 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.8 4.8 5.2 5.2
Initial Unemployment Claimsb 491.2 515.9 402.2 455.1 397.6 411.5 389.3 441.2 500.6
Year-over-Year Percent Change 6.2 0.7 -22.1 -5.0 -19.0 -12.4 -5.4 13.3 13.5
Quarterly Percent Change 2.6 5.0 -22.0 13.2 -12.6
Single-Family Building Permitsc 26,320 26,821 28,238 27,945 26,598 24,065 26,824 27,695 28,217
Year-over-Year Percent Change -11.5 -7.7 -4.2 -7.7 1.1 13.4 11.5 3.2 1.9
Quarterly Percent Change -13.0 1.9 5.3 -1.0 -4.8
Multifamily Building Permitsc 14,692 13,084 8,027 7,174 7,085 2,919 5,050 7,401 12,305
Year-over-Year Percent Change 130.0 39.4 9.4 -49.2 -51.8 38.7 73.0 46.6 66.3
Quarterly Percent Change 4.1 -10.9 -38.7 -10.6 -1.2
Personal Incomed 117.6 118.8 121.4 123.0 --- 97.7 104.0 111.7 116.8
Year-over-Year Percent Change 4.8 4.4 6.1 5.8 --- 6.5 6.4 7.4 4.6
Quarterly Percent Change 1.3 1.0 2.2 1.3 ---
Memphis
Total Payroll Employmenta 542.2 548.9 551.9 551.1 546.6 491.8 512.6 534.7 544.2
Year-over-Year Percent Change 0.8 1.6 1.7 1.5 0.8 1.9 4.2 4.3 1.8
Quarterly Percent Change -0.2 1.2 0.5 -0.1 -0.8
Civilian Unemployment Rate 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.6 5.6 4.8 4.9 4.4
Nashville
Total Payroll Employmenta 607.5 611.2 614.8 611.6 613.4 541.8 570.8 595.4 607.2
Year-over-Year Percent Change 1.9 1.3 1.7 1.1 1.0 5.3 5.4 4.3 2.0
Quarterly Percent Change 0.4 0.6 0.6 -0.5 0.3
Civilian Unemployment Rate 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 4.1 3.1 3.3 3.3

a Thousands, seasonally adjusted
b Thousands, seasonally adjusted annual rate
c Units, seasonally adjusted annual rate
d $ billions, seasonally adjusted annual rate
Sources: Payroll Employment and Civilian Unemployment Rate: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Initial Unemployment Claims: U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration. Single- and Multifamily Building Permits: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Construction Statistics Division. Nonresidential Contracts: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Construction Statistics Division. Personal Income: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Quarterly estimates of all construction data reflect annual benchmark revisions.

All data were obtained and seasonally adjusted by Regional Financial Associates. Small differences from previously published data reflect revisions of seasonal factors. The U.S. Department of Commerce has discontinued the series on nonresidential contracts.