Regional Update (January-March 1998)

Index The State of the States Views from the Region Southeastern Manufacturing Survey Southeastern Economic Indicators

Cover Story - How Will the Asian Financial Crisis Affect the Southeast?

Defense Contractors in the Region Respond to Military Spending Cuts

S outheastern Economic Indicators
Alabama
Quarterly Annual Averages
1996Q4 1997Q1 1997Q2 1997Q3 1997Q4 1994 1995 1996 1997
Total Payroll Employmenta 1,834.1 1,841.4 1,844.4 1,846.4 1,854.8 1,758.4 1,803.5 1,825.7 1,846.7
Year-over-Year Percent Change 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.1 2.4 2.6 1.2 1.2
Quarterly Percent Change 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.5
Manufacturing Payroll Employmenta 381.2 382.6 379.8 377.7 376.3 386.4 391.8 383.0 379.1
Year-over-Year Percent Change -2.1 -1.0 -0.7 -1.0 -1.3 0.6 1.4 -2.3 -1.0
Quarterly Percent Change -0.1 0.4 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4
Civilian Unemployment Rate 4.6 4.4 4.5 4.8 4.7 6.0 6.3 5.1 4.6
Initial Unemployment Claimsb 328.0 298.4 344.6 322.3 313.9 301.6 365.4 356.9 319.8
Year-over-Year Percent Change -28.2 -26.5 -6.1 -1.3 -4.3 -17.2 21.2 -2.3 -10.4
Quarterly Percent Change 0.4 -9.0 15.5 -6.5 -2.6
Single-Family Building Permitsc 13,953 13,455 14,837 14,243 13,534 14,443 13,412 14,566 14,017
Year-over-Year Percent Change -4.8 -9.9 -0.6 -1.4 -3.0 12.7 -7.1 8.6 -3.8
Quarterly Percent Change -3.4 -3.6 10.3 -4.0 -5.0
Multifamily Building Permitsc 9,662 7,282 2,682 3,353 4,376 4,693 6,702 5,302 4,423
Year-over-Year Percent Change 28.9 136.0 -37.0 -20.2 -54.7 42.6 42.8 -20.9 -16.6
Quarterly Percent Change 130.0 -24.6 -63.2 25.1 30.5
Personal Incomed 87.6 89.0 89.8 90.6 -- 77.3 82.1 86.0 --
Year-over-Year Percent Change 5.2 5.8 4.8 4.4 -- 5.5 6.1 4.8 --
Quarterly Percent Change 1.0 1.6 0.9 0.9 --
Birmingham
Total Payroll Employmenta 450.4 453.9 456.0 457.2 458.3 429.9 442.8 449.6 456.3
Year-over-Year Percent Change 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 2.7 3.0 1.5 1.5
Quarterly Percent Change 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2
Civilian Unemployment Rate 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.1 4.1 4.3 3.2 3.1
Florida
Quarterly Annual Averages
1996Q4 1997Q1 1997Q2 1997Q3 1997Q4 1994 1995 1996 1997
Total Payroll Employmenta 6,263.0 6,314.9 6,380.5 6,423.1 6,486.3 5,799.4 5,996.2 6,182.8 6,401.2
Year-over-Year Percent Change 3.1 3.3 3.8 3.5 3.6 4.1 3.4 3.1 3.5
Quarterly Percent Change 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.7 1.0
Manufacturing Payroll Employmenta 492.4 492.4 492.9 493.4 493.8 484.0 486.5 490.6 493.1
Year-over-Year Percent Change 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.3 -0.2 0.5 0.8 0.5
Quarterly Percent Change 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Civilian Unemployment Rate 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.7 4.7 6.6 5.5 5.1 4.8
Initial Unemployment Claimsb 450.5 448.8 461.9 454.3 413.3 511.7 482.3 473.1 444.6
Year-over-Year Percent Change -3.7 -8.3 -4.3 -3.2 -8.3 -0.7 -5.8 -1.9 -6.0
Quarterly Percent Change -4.0 -0.4 2.9 -1.7 -9.0
Single-Family Building Permitsc 90,612 90,146 89,715 84,842 92,484 96,276 84,071 91,040 89,297
Year-over-Year Percent Change 9.8 0.2 -3.3 -6.6 2.1 5.5 -12.7 8.3 -1.9
Quarterly Percent Change -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -5.4 9.0
Multifamily Building Permitsc 29,432 44,195 43,922 46,937 38,151 32,326 38,832 33,980 43,301
Year-over-Year Percent Change -30.5 30.1 29.9 21.3 29.6 35.6 20.1 -12.5 27.4
Quarterly Percent Change -24.0 50.2 -0.6 6.9 -18.7
Personal Incomed 355.1 362.6 366.8 371.5 -- 306.7 328.1 348.8 --
Year-over-Year Percent Change 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.8 -- 4.8 7.0 6.3 --
Quarterly Percent Change 1.1 2.1 1.2 1.3 --
Fort Lauderdale
Total Payroll Employmenta 613.9 619.4 628.6 633.8 638.9 564.8 584.7 606.5 630.2
Year-over-Year Percent Change 3.5 3.6 4.1 3.9 4.1 4.6 3.5 3.7 3.9
Quarterly Percent Change 0.6 0.9 1.5 0.8 0.8
Civilian Unemployment Rate 4.9 5.1 5.0 4.7 4.8 6.5 5.7 5.1 4.9
Jacksonville
Total Payroll Employmenta 503.2 509.5 513.7 516.1 522.6 459.4 482.2 495.5 515.5
Year-over-Year Percent Change 2.7 3.7 4.4 4.2 3.9 4.7 5.0 2.8 4.0
Quarterly Percent Change 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.5 1.3
Civilian Unemployment Rate 3.6 3.5 3.8 3.6 3.5 4.8 3.7 3.6 3.6
Miami
Total Payroll Employmenta 949.3 953.2 962.4 965.7 968.5 909.9 926.6 941.4 962.4
Year-over-Year Percent Change 1.9 2.1 2.6 2.2 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.6 2.2
Quarterly Percent Change 0.4 0.4 1.0 0.3 0.3
Civilian Unemployment Rate 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.0 6.9 8.4 7.3 7.3 7.2
Orlando
Total Payroll Employmenta 765.7 777.0 784.9 796.2 809.3 682.8 714.0 748.4 791.9
Year-over-Year Percent Change 5.1 6.1 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.0 4.6 4.8 5.8
Quarterly Percent Change 1.7 1.5 1.0 1.4 1.6
Civilian Unemployment Rate 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.4 5.6 4.5 3.8 3.5
Tampa
Total Payroll Employmenta 1,032.5 1,044.2 1,054.7 1,065.4 1,073.7 957.4 993.8 1,021.4 1,059.5
Year-over-Year Percent Change 2.7 3.1 3.9 3.9 4.0 5.9 3.8 2.8 3.7
Quarterly Percent Change 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8
Civilian Unemployment Rate 3.8 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.6 5.3 4.4 3.9 3.6
West Palm Beach
Total Payroll Employmenta 422.6 426.0 430.9 436.9 440.4 386.1 399.1 416.4 433.5
Year-over-Year Percent Change 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.5 3.4 4.4 4.1
Quarterly Percent Change 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.4 0.8
Civilian Unemployment Rate 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.1 8.8 7.2 6.7 6.4
Georgia
Quarterly Annual Averages
1996Q4 1997Q1 1997Q2 1997Q3 1997Q4 1994 1995 1996 1997
Total Payroll Employmenta 3,558.7 3,560.3 3,582.4 3,625.6 3,683.8 3,265.8 3,402.2 3,528.8 3,613.0
Year-over-Year Percent Change 3.3 2.3 1.7 2.0 3.5 5.0 4.2 3.7 2.4
Quarterly Percent Change 0.1 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.6
Manufacturing Payroll Employmenta 588.2 588.3 588.1 586.6 588.2 577.3 586.9 584.8 587.8
Year-over-Year Percent Change 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.4 1.7 -0.4 0.5
Quarterly Percent Change 0.5 0.0 -0.0 -0.2 0.3
Civilian Unemployment Rate 4.7 4.7 4.4 4.4 3.9 5.2 4.9 4.6 4.4
Initial Unemployment Claimsb 363.0 341.6 317.3 297.8 290.4 387.8 408.4 370.2 311.8
Year-over-Year Percent Change -11.0 -14.9 -12.1 -16.3 -20.0 -5.0 5.3 -9.3 -15.8
Quarterly Percent Change 2.0 -5.9 -7.1 -6.2 -2.5
Single-Family Building Permitsc 56,865 54,729 55,212 57,514 58,039 52,530 55,027 59,397 56,373
Year-over-Year Percent Change -2.7 -9.7 -11.7 -0.2 2.1 10.4 4.8 7.9 -5.1
Quarterly Percent Change -1.3 -3.8 0.9 4.2 0.9
Multifamily Building Permitsc 11,964 14,808 22,558 14,282 16,281 12,330 17,198 15,477 16,982
Year-over-Year Percent Change -17.2 -2.1 28.2 -17.1 36.1 96.5 39.5 -10.0 9.7
Quarterly Percent Change -30.5 23.8 52.3 -36.7 14.0
Personal Incomed 172.9 176.8 178.6 181.4 -- 146.1 157.9 169.0 --
Year-over-Year Percent Change 6.6 7.8 6.3 6.2 -- 7.1 8.1 7.0 --
Quarterly Percent Change 1.2 2.3 1.0 1.6 --
Atlanta
Total Payroll Employmenta 1,924.6 1,938.9 1,943.7 1,961.9 2,000.3 1,732.9 1,817.0 1,905.4 1,961.2
Year-over-Year Percent Change 4.1 3.6 2.2 2.0 3.9 6.0 4.9 4.9 2.9
Quarterly Percent Change 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.9 2.0
Civilian Unemployment Rate 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.2 4.7 4.3 3.8 3.5
Louisiana
Quarterly Annual Averages
1996Q4 1997Q1 1997Q2 1997Q3 1997Q4 1994 1995 1996 1997
Total Payroll Employmenta 1,827.1 1,830.8 1,837.6 1,839.5 1,849.0 1,722.1 1,772.3 1,810.9 1,839.2
Year-over-Year Percent Change 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.2 3.8 2.9 2.2 1.6
Quarterly Percent Change 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.5
Manufacturing Payroll Employmenta 188.2 188.1 189.0 189.5 188.2 186.5 188.0 188.2 188.7
Year-over-Year Percent Change 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.1 0.3
Quarterly Percent Change -0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.2 -0.7
Civilian Unemployment Rate 6.6 5.6 6.1 6.0 5.9 8.1 6.9 6.8 5.9
Initial Unemployment Claimsb 168.7 175.0 174.0 173.2 147.3 187.8 199.2 175.5 167.4
Year-over-Year Percent Change -20.0 -6.1 1.3 -1.1 -12.7 -6.3 6.0 -11.9 -4.6
Quarterly Percent Change -3.7 3.7 -0.6 -0.4 -14.9
Single-Family Building Permitsc 14,161 12,917 15,218 13,873 15,053 12,758 12,461 14,422 14,265
Year-over-Year Percent Change 7.2 -12.0 1.8 -0.2 6.3 23.1 -2.3 15.7 -1.1
Quarterly Percent Change 1.9 -8.8 17.8 -8.8 8.5
Multifamily Building Permitsc 4,055 3,583 4,833 1,844 1,661 2,024 2,262 3,576 2,980
Year-over-Year Percent Change 63.3 12.1 3.1 -22.0 -59.0 134.5 11.8 58.1 -16.7
Quarterly Percent Change 71.4 -11.7 34.9 -61.8 -10.0
Personal Incomed 86.9 88.4 89.7 90.9 -- 78.2 82.3 85.5 --
Year-over-Year Percent Change 4.6 5.3 5.2 5.5 -- 6.0 5.2 4.0 --
Quarterly Percent Change 0.9 1.7 1.6 1.3 --
New Orleans
Total Payroll Employmenta 605.6 607.7 608.9 610.2 611.4 584.9 598.8 603.6 609.6
Year-over-Year Percent Change 1.0 1.4 0.8 0.8 1.0 2.7 2.4 0.8 1.0
Quarterly Percent Change 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
Civilian Unemployment Rate 6.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.3 7.4 6.4 6.5 5.3
Mississippi
Quarterly Annual Averages
1996Q4 1997Q1 1997Q2 1997Q3 1997Q4 1994 1995 1996 1997
Total Payroll Employmenta 1,095.8 1,094.7 1,099.5 1,103.1 1,107.4 1,055.5 1,074.6 1,090.6 1,101.2
Year-over-Year Percent Change 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.7 1.1 5.3 1.8 1.5 1.0
Quarterly Percent Change 0.0 -0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4
Manufacturing Payroll Employmenta 242.1 242.3 242.6 240.9 240.7 261.0 257.8 245.7 241.7
Year-over-Year Percent Change -3.9 -2.2 -2.0 -1.9 -0.6 2.1 -1.2 -4.7 -1.7
Quarterly Percent Change -1.4 0.1 0.1 -0.7 -0.1
Civilian Unemployment Rate 5.9 5.6 5.0 5.5 5.6 6.6 6.1 6.1 5.4
Initial Unemployment Claimsb 201.2 172.7 185.9 165.2 156.2 161.6 199.2 194.9 170.0
Year-over-Year Percent Change -8.1 -18.9 -2.6 -5.4 -22.4 0.8 23.2 -2.1 -12.8
Quarterly Percent Change 15.2 -14.1 7.7 -11.2 -5.4
Single-Family Building Permitsc 8,061 7,203 8,226 8,230 7,859 7,976 7,267 8,061 7,879
Year-over-Year Percent Change 4.9 -13.3 0.9 6.6 -2.5 16.1 -8.9 10.9 -2.3
Quarterly Percent Change 4.4 -10.6 14.2 0.0 -4.5
Multifamily Building Permitsc 2,064 2,040 3,557 1,726 2,633 2,957 3,486 2,306 2,489
Year-over-Year Percent Change -53.0 -18.4 10.8 19.2 27.6 137.3 17.9 -33.9 7.9
Quarterly Percent Change 42.5 -1.2 74.4 -51.5 52.5
Personal Incomed 48.4 49.3 50.1 50.6 -- 42.5 45.1 47.7 --
Year-over-Year Percent Change 5.0 5.4 5.2 4.9 -- 7.7 6.2 5.7 --
Quarterly Percent Change 0.4 1.8 1.7 0.9 --
Jackson
Total Payroll Employmenta 217.1 217.0 217.7 218.8 219.8 204.5 209.7 215.8 218.3
Year-over-Year Percent Change 2.5 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.3 4.5 2.5 2.9 1.2
Quarterly Percent Change 0.4 -0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5
Civilian Unemployment Rate 3.4 3.5 3.0 3.1 3.6 4.5 3.9 3.6 3.3
Tennessee
Quarterly Annual Averages
1996Q4 1997Q1 1997Q2 1997Q3 1997Q4 1994 1995 1996 1997
Total Payroll Employmenta 2,549.9 2,555.6 2,552.5 2,552.4 2,570.9 2,422.9 2,498.8 2,535.3 2,557.9
Year-over-Year Percent Change 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.8 4.1 3.1 1.5 0.9
Quarterly Percent Change 0.6 0.2 -0.1 -0.0 0.7
Manufacturing Payroll Employmenta 520.9 519.3 515.9 512.7 514.7 539.0 538.9 522.4 515.7
Year-over-Year Percent Change -2.0 -1.3 -1.2 -1.5 -1.2 2.0 -0.0 -3.1 -1.3
Quarterly Percent Change 0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6 0.4
Civilian Unemployment Rate 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.0 4.8 5.2 5.2 5.1
Initial Unemployment Claimsb 515.9 402.2 455.1 397.6 476.2 389.3 441.2 500.6 432.8
Year-over-Year Percent Change 0.7 -22.1 -5.0 -19.0 -7.7 -5.4 13.3 13.5 -13.5
Quarterly Percent Change 5.0 -22.0 13.2 -12.6 19.8
Single-Family Building Permitsc 26,821 28,169 27,876 26,533 26,283 26,824 27,695 28,217 27,215
Year-over-Year Percent Change -7.7 -4.4 -7.9 0.8 -2.0 11.5 3.2 1.9 -3.6
Quarterly Percent Change 1.9 5.0 -1.0 -4.8 -0.9
Multifamily Building Permitsc 13,084 8,154 7,280 7,192 9,131 5,050 7,401 12,305 7,939
Year-over-Year Percent Change 39.4 11.2 -48.4 -51.0 -30.2 73.0 46.6 66.3 -35.5
Quarterly Percent Change -10.9 -37.7 -10.7 -1.2 27.0
Personal Incomed 118.8 121.4 122.6 124.0 -- 104.0 111.7 116.8 --
Year-over-Year Percent Change 4.4 6.1 5.6 5.4 -- 6.4 7.4 4.6 --
Quarterly Percent Change 1.0 2.2 1.0 1.1 --
Memphis
Total Payroll Employmenta 548.9 551.9 551.1 547.0 549.8 512.6 534.7 544.2 550.0
Year-over-Year Percent Change 1.6 1.7 1.5 0.9 0.2 4.2 4.3 1.8 1.1
Quarterly Percent Change 1.2 0.5 -0.1 -0.8 0.5
Civilian Unemployment Rate 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.6 4.5 4.8 4.9 4.4 4.4
Nashville
Total Payroll Employmenta 611.2 614.8 611.6 613.5 619.1 570.8 595.4 607.2 614.7
Year-over-Year Percent Change 1.3 1.7 1.1 1.0 1.3 5.4 4.3 2.0 1.2
Quarterly Percent Change 0.6 0.6 -0.5 0.3 0.9
Civilian Unemployment Rate 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.3 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.4

a Thousands, seasonally adjusted
b Thousands, seasonally adjusted annual rate
c Units, seasonally adjusted annual rate
d $ billions, seasonally adjusted annual rate
Sources: Payroll Employment and Civilian Unemployment Rate: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Initial Unemployment Claims: U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration. Single- and Multifamily Building Permits: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Construction Statistics Division. Nonresidential Contracts: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Construction Statistics Division. Personal Income: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Quarterly estimates of all construction data reflect annual benchmark revisions.

All the data were obtained and seasonally adjusted by Regional Financial Associates. Small differences from previously published data reflect revisions of seasonal factors. The U.S. Department of Commerce has discontinued the series on nonresidential contracts.