Regional Update (October-December 1998)

Index

Cover Story - Financial Crises Abroad Pose Many Uncertainties for Southeast in 1999

Economic Outlook for Alabama Varies by Region

Florida Growth to Slow but Remain Strong

Georgia's Strong Performance Continues to Move the State Forward

Louisiana Expands, but Lower Gas Prices Temper Growth

Although Gambling Boom Ends, Mississippi's Economy Is Stable

National Slowing Will Affect Tennessee's Growth Prospects

Southeastern Economic Indicators

S outheastern Economic Indicators
Alabama
Quarterly Annual Averages
1997Q3 1997Q4 1998Q1 1998Q2 1998Q3 1994 1995 1996 1997
Total Payroll Employmenta 1,869.6 1,871.2 1,877.5 1,881.6 1,883.6 1,758.4 1,803.5 1,828.6 1,864.5
Year-over-Year Percent Change 2.0 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.7 2.4 2.6 1.4 2.0
Quarterly Percent Change 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1
Manufacturing Payroll Employmenta 381.1 378.7 379.1 376.2 373.3 386.4 391.8 382.6 380.5
Year-over-Year Percent Change 0.1 -0.7 -0.7 -1.1 -2.1 0.6 1.4 -2.4 -0.5
Quarterly Percent Change 0.2 -0.6 0.1 -0.8 -0.8
Civilian Unemployment Rate 5.2 4.7 4.0 3.8 3.9 6.0 6.3 5.1 5.1
Initial Unemployment Claimsb 324.4 309.3 315.9 337.6 314.6 301.9 366.1 357.5 319.4
Year-over-Year Percent Change -1.7 -4.8 4.1 -0.8 -3.0 -17.1 21.3 -2.4 -10.7
Quarterly Percent Change -4.7 -4.6 2.1 6.9 -6.8
Single-Family Building Permitsc 13,609 13,020 13,876 15,134 14,778 14,443 13,412 14,566 13,634
Year-over-Year Percent Change -4.0 -5.7 1.0 6.8 8.6 12.7 -7.1 8.6 -6.4
Quarterly Percent Change -4.0 -4.3 6.6 9.1 -2.4
Multifamily Building Permitsc 3,307 4,024 5,078 4,652 6,811 4,693 6,702 5,302 4,098
Year-over-Year Percent Change -22.3 -48.8 -13.7 46.4 106.0 42.6 42.8 -20.9 -22.7
Quarterly Percent Change 4.1 21.7 26.2 -8.4 46.4
Personal Incomed 89.6 90.7 91.5 92.4 --- 77.0 81.3 85.2 89.4
Year-over-Year Percent Change 4.2 4.7 3.6 3.8 --- 5.6 5.6 4.7 5.0
Quarterly Percent Change 0.7 1.2 0.9 1.0 ---
Birmingham
Total Payroll Employmenta 464.1 465.5 469.6 471.5 473.0 429.9 442.8 451.1 462.8
Year-over-Year Percent Change 2.7 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.9 2.7 3.0 1.9 2.6
Quarterly Percent Change 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.3
Civilian Unemployment Rate 3.4 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.6 4.1 4.2 3.2 3.3
Florida
Quarterly Annual Averages
1997Q3 1997Q4 1998Q1 1998Q2 1998Q3 1994 1995 1996 1997
Total Payroll Employmenta 6,461.9 6,531.5 6,582.7 6,640.9 6,709.1 5,799.4 5,996.1 6,183.2 6,427.9
Year-over-Year Percent Change 4.2 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.8 4.1 3.4 3.1 4.0
Quarterly Percent Change 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.0
Manufacturing Payroll Employmenta 492.2 491.7 491.6 491.5 491.4 484.0 486.5 489.7 491.2
Year-over-Year Percent Change 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3
Quarterly Percent Change 0.3 -0.1 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0
Civilian Unemployment Rate 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.3 6.6 5.5 5.1 4.8
Initial Unemployment Claimsb 450.9 415.9 410.1 425.1 422.9 511.9 482.6 473.3 444.8
Year-over-Year Percent Change -3.3 -8.3 -9.6 -7.4 -6.2 -0.7 -5.7 -1.9 -6.0
Quarterly Percent Change -1.8 -7.8 -1.4 3.7 -0.5
Single-Family Building Permitsc 85,757 94,932 93,691 96,320 98,977 96,276 84,071 91,040 90,309
Year-over-Year Percent Change -5.2 3.1 3.4 7.1 15.4 5.5 -12.7 8.3 -0.8
Quarterly Percent Change -4.6 10.7 -1.3 2.8 2.8
Multifamily Building Permitsc 46,852 42,159 46,286 43,138 51,770 32,326 38,832 33,980 43,681
Year-over-Year Percent Change 21.2 31.8 7.2 1.4 10.5 35.6 20.1 -12.5 28.5
Quarterly Percent Change 10.1 -10.0 9.8 -6.8 20.0
Personal Incomed 365.9 369.1 372.6 377.8 --- 303.6 321.4 343.7 363.3
Year-over-Year Percent Change 5.6 5.2 4.3 4.6 --- 5.0 5.9 6.9 5.7
Quarterly Percent Change 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.4 ---
Fort Lauderdale
Total Payroll Employmenta 631.5 636.3 639.9 645.9 651.9 564.8 584.7 607.4 627.2
Year-over-Year Percent Change 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.2 4.6 3.5 3.9 3.3
Quarterly Percent Change 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.9
Civilian Unemployment Rate 4.7 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.3 6.5 5.7 5.1 4.9
Jacksonville
Total Payroll Employmenta 520.6 528.2 533.5 538.9 542.4 459.4 482.2 494.5 518.1
Year-over-Year Percent Change 5.2 5.5 5.1 4.4 4.2 4.7 5.0 2.5 4.8
Quarterly Percent Change 0.9 1.4 1.0 1.0 0.6
Civilian Unemployment Rate 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.0 4.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6
Miami
Total Payroll Employmenta 965.3 966.5 970.9 977.2 984.2 909.9 926.6 937.8 960.8
Year-over-Year Percent Change 2.9 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.2 2.5
Quarterly Percent Change 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.7
Civilian Unemployment Rate 6.9 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.2 8.4 7.4 7.3 7.1
Orlando
Total Payroll Employmenta 800.4 812.3 820.9 828.2 839.5 682.7 713.9 749.4 794.9
Year-over-Year Percent Change 6.1 5.9 5.5 5.0 4.9 5.0 4.6 5.0 6.1
Quarterly Percent Change 1.5 1.5 1.1 0.9 1.4
Civilian Unemployment Rate 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.0 5.6 4.5 3.8 3.4
Tampa
Total Payroll Employmenta 1,074.0 1,084.2 1,096.3 1,108.0 1,120.8 957.4 993.8 1,022.0 1,065.8
Year-over-Year Percent Change 4.8 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.4 5.9 3.8 2.8 4.3
Quarterly Percent Change 1.5 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2
Civilian Unemployment Rate 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.0 5.3 4.3 3.9 3.5
West Palm Beach
Total Payroll Employmenta 441.4 444.8 449.4 455.1 460.8 386.1 399.0 417.3 437.1
Year-over-Year Percent Change 5.1 4.7 5.0 4.8 4.4 4.5 3.4 4.6 4.8
Quarterly Percent Change 1.6 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.3
Civilian Unemployment Rate 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.1 5.5 8.8 7.2 6.6 6.3
Georgia
Quarterly Annual Averages
1997Q3 1997Q4 1998Q1 1998Q2 1998Q3 1994 1995 1996 1997
Total Payroll Employmenta 3,629.9 3,676.3 3,704.3 3,725.0 3,738.8 3,265.8 3,402.3 3,527.3 3,618.4
Year-over-Year Percent Change 2.1 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.0 5.0 4.2 3.7 2.6
Quarterly Percent Change 1.1 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.4
Manufacturing Payroll Employmenta 588.1 589.1 588.7 591.0 590.9 577.3 586.9 585.4 588.7
Year-over-Year Percent Change 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.5 3.4 1.7 -0.3 0.6
Quarterly Percent Change -0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.4 -0.0
Civilian Unemployment Rate 4.5 4.2 4.0 4.1 4.0 5.2 4.9 4.6 4.5
Initial Unemployment Claimsb 301.9 291.8 315.7 341.6 375.1 388.4 409.5 371.3 312.7
Year-over-Year Percent Change -16.2 -19.8 -6.6 7.0 24.3 -4.8 5.4 -9.3 -15.8
Quarterly Percent Change -5.4 -3.3 8.2 8.2 9.8
Single-Family Building Permitsc 60,334 61,471 63,279 64,011 70,071 52,530 55,027 59,397 59,596
Year-over-Year Percent Change 6.0 7.6 9.6 8.8 16.1 10.4 4.8 7.9 0.3
Quarterly Percent Change 2.6 1.9 2.9 1.2 9.5
Multifamily Building Permitsc 12,994 18,780 24,739 16,763 14,581 12,330 17,198 15,477 15,527
Year-over-Year Percent Change -18.3 48.8 100.1 -6.7 12.2 96.5 39.5 -10.0 0.3
Quarterly Percent Change -27.7 44.5 31.7 -32.2 -13.0
Personal Incomed 179.8 181.8 185.7 188.3 --- 145.4 156.0 168.0 178.9
Year-over-Year Percent Change 5.7 5.8 5.5 5.9 --- 7.2 7.3 7.7 6.5
Quarterly Percent Change 1.1 1.1 2.1 1.4 ---
Atlanta
Total Payroll Employmenta 1,966.4 1,999.2 2,018.9 2,022.0 2,028.3 1,732.9 1,817.0 1,903.0 1,962.8
Year-over-Year Percent Change 2.3 4.2 4.3 3.7 3.1 6.0 4.9 4.7 3.1
Quarterly Percent Change 0.8 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.3
Civilian Unemployment Rate 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.3 4.7 4.3 3.8 3.7
Louisiana
Quarterly Annual Averages
1997Q3 1997Q4 1998Q1 1998Q2 1998Q3 1994 1995 1996 1997
Total Payroll Employmenta 1,855.9 1,867.1 1,875.3 1,884.6 1,884.0 1,722.0 1,772.4 1,809.7 1,849.0
Year-over-Year Percent Change 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 1.5 3.8 2.9 2.1 2.2
Quarterly Percent Change 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.5 -0.0
Manufacturing Payroll Employmenta 191.0 190.5 190.6 189.7 189.4 186.4 188.0 188.6 190.5
Year-over-Year Percent Change 1.1 0.8 0.5 -0.6 -0.9 0.6 0.8 0.3 1.0
Quarterly Percent Change 0.1 -0.3 0.0 -0.5 -0.2
Civilian Unemployment Rate 6.1 5.8 4.7 5.3 6.0 8.1 6.9 6.7 6.1
Initial Unemployment Claimsb 170.5 148.3 145.7 161.0 162.1 187.8 199.2 175.3 167.2
Year-over-Year Percent Change -1.5 -12.6 -17.0 -7.7 -4.9 -6.3 6.1 -12.0 -4.6
Quarterly Percent Change -2.3 -13.0 -1.8 -10.5 0.7
Single-Family Building Permitsc 12,805 13,515 13,229 14,368 14,114 12,758 12,461 14,422 13,189
Year-over-Year Percent Change -6.9 -3.1 5.5 3.4 10.2 23.1 -2.3 15.7 -8.5
Quarterly Percent Change -7.8 5.5 -2.1 8.6 -1.8
Multifamily Building Permitsc 1,084 1,461 1,847 2,270 2,252 2,024 2,262 3,576 1,955
Year-over-Year Percent Change -39.3 -72.0 -29.2 -14.8 107.9 134.5 11.8 58.1 -45.3
Quarterly Percent Change -59.4 34.9 26.4 22.9 -0.8
Personal Incomed 89.3 90.8 91.8 92.6 --- 77.9 81.5 85.1 89.1
Year-over-Year Percent Change 4.1 5.2 4.8 4.5 --- 6.1 4.6 4.4 4.7
Quarterly Percent Change 0.8 1.7 1.1 0.8 ---
New Orleans
Total Payroll Employmenta 616.8 617.8 621.2 618.3 620.7 584.9 598.8 603.8 615.0
Year-over-Year Percent Change 1.9 1.9 1.8 0.5 0.6 2.7 2.4 0.8 1.9
Quarterly Percent Change 0.3 0.2 0.5 -0.5 0.4
Civilian Unemployment Rate 5.3 5.1 4.4 4.6 4.9 7.4 6.4 6.5 5.5
Mississippi
Quarterly Annual Averages
1997Q3 1997Q4 1998Q1 1998Q2 1998Q3 1994 1995 1996 1997
Total Payroll Employmenta 1,110.3 1,112.8 1,118.6 1,121.7 1,123.2 1,055.5 1,074.6 1,088.9 1,105.8
Year-over-Year Percent Change 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.2 5.3 1.8 1.3 1.5
Quarterly Percent Change 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1
Manufacturing Payroll Employmenta 240.7 240.9 242.0 241.5 239.2 261.0 257.9 245.6 241.3
Year-over-Year Percent Change -1.6 -0.7 0.0 -0.1 -0.7 2.1 -1.2 -4.7 -1.7
Quarterly Percent Change -0.4 0.1 0.5 -0.2 -1.0
Civilian Unemployment Rate 5.8 5.4 5.5 5.0 5.1 6.6 6.1 6.1 5.7
Initial Unemployment Claimsb 166.0 154.2 164.4 169.8 159.3 161.6 199.4 194.8 170.0
Year-over-Year Percent Change -5.3 -22.8 -4.4 -9.7 -4.0 0.9 23.3 -2.3 -12.8
Quarterly Percent Change -11.7 -7.1 6.6 3.3 -6.2
Single-Family Building Permitsc 7,982 7,638 7,707 9,073 8,474 7,976 7,267 8,061 7,801
Year-over-Year Percent Change 5.6 -2.5 3.4 11.6 6.2 16.1 -8.9 10.9 -3.2
Quarterly Percent Change -1.8 -4.3 0.9 17.7 -6.6
Multifamily Building Permitsc 1,673 2,289 3,128 3,114 6,141 2,957 3,486 2,306 2,278
Year-over-Year Percent Change 24.2 9.3 36.8 8.8 267.1 137.3 17.9 -33.9 -1.2
Quarterly Percent Change -41.6 36.8 36.6 -0.4 97.2
Personal Incomed 49.5 50.2 50.9 51.4 --- 42.3 44.6 47.2 49.4
Year-over-Year Percent Change 3.9 5.1 4.8 4.5 --- 7.7 5.5 5.7 4.7
Quarterly Percent Change 0.7 1.4 1.3 1.0 ---
Jackson
Total Payroll Employmenta 221.3 222.3 224.5 226.1 227.7 204.5 209.7 215.1 220.4
Year-over-Year Percent Change 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 4.5 2.5 2.6 2.5
Quarterly Percent Change 0.6 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.7
Civilian Unemployment Rate 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.2 4.5 3.9 3.6 3.5
Tennessee
Quarterly Annual Averages
1997Q3 1997Q4 1998Q1 1998Q2 1998Q3 1994 1995 1996 1997
Total Payroll Employmenta 2,589.0 2,601.4 2,621.0 2,622.8 2,615.9 2,422.9 2,498.9 2,533.3 2,583.3
Year-over-Year Percent Change 2.2 2.1 2.4 1.6 1.0 4.1 3.1 1.4 2.0
Quarterly Percent Change 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.1 -0.3
Manufacturing Payroll Employmenta 516.6 517.1 518.2 514.9 509.3 539.0 539.0 519.3 517.0
Year-over-Year Percent Change 0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.5 -1.4 2.0 0.0 -3.7 -0.4
Quarterly Percent Change -0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.6 -1.1
Civilian Unemployment Rate 5.5 5.2 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.8 5.2 5.2 5.4
Initial Unemployment Claimsb 405.0 465.5 420.7 408.8 397.5 389.6 441.3 500.0 431.0
Year-over-Year Percent Change -18.9 -8.4 4.5 -9.3 -1.8 -5.4 13.3 13.3 -13.8
Quarterly Percent Change -10.1 14.9 -9.6 -2.8 -2.8
Single-Family Building Permitsc 26,478 26,858 27,621 27,484 28,237 26,824 27,695 28,217 26,694
Year-over-Year Percent Change -0.5 -4.0 2.7 3.5 6.6 11.5 3.2 1.9 -5.4
Quarterly Percent Change -0.3 1.4 2.8 -0.5 2.7
Multifamily Building Permitsc 6,309 7,348 8,349 5,974 6,592 5,050 7,401 12,305 7,360
Year-over-Year Percent Change -53.5 -38.1 6.2 -24.6 4.5 73.0 46.6 66.3 -40.2
Quarterly Percent Change -20.4 16.5 13.6 -28.4 10.3
Personal Incomed 122.7 124.4 125.2 126.1 --- 103.6 110.6 115.7 122.1
Year-over-Year Percent Change 5.1 5.5 4.1 4.0 --- 6.5 6.7 4.7 5.5
Quarterly Percent Change 1.1 1.4 0.6 0.7 ---
Memphis
Total Payroll Employmenta 555.1 558.1 560.9 560.1 557.6 512.6 534.7 545.4 556.3
Year-over-Year Percent Change 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.4 4.2 4.3 2.0 2.0
Quarterly Percent Change -0.3 0.5 0.5 -0.2 -0.4
Civilian Unemployment Rate 4.7 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.7 4.8 4.9 4.4 4.6
Nashville
Total Payroll Employmenta 628.2 631.9 639.7 637.9 637.1 570.7 595.4 609.4 627.0
Year-over-Year Percent Change 3.0 2.3 3.0 1.8 1.4 5.3 4.3 2.4 2.9
Quarterly Percent Change 0.2 0.6 1.2 -0.3 -0.1
Civilian Unemployment Rate 3.6 3.4 2.8 3.0 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.3 3.5

a Thousands, seasonally adjusted
b Thousands, seasonally adjusted annual rate
c Units, seasonally adjusted annual rate
d $ billions, seasonally adjusted annual rate
Sources: Payroll Employment and Civilian Unemployment Rate: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Initial Unemployment Claims: U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration. Single- and Multifamily Building Permits: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Construction Statistics Division. Personal Income: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Quarterly estimates of all construction data reflect annual benchmark revisions.

All the data were obtained and seasonally adjusted by Regional Financial Associates. Small differences from previously published data reflect revisions of seasonal factors. The U.S. Department of Commerce has discontinued the series on nonresidential contracts.