Regional Update (October-December 1996)

Index Southeastern economic indicators

Cover Story - Southeast to Keep Pace with the Nation in 1997

Alabama is Poised for Improvement

Florida's Pace to Slow but Remain Strong

A Slower but Positive Pace in Store for Georiga

Resource Base Likely to Work in Louisiana's Favor

Mississippi Set to Emerge from Its Post-Boom Hangover

A Good but Unspectacular Year Ahead for Tennessee

S outheastern Economic Indicators
Alabama
Quarterly Annual Averages
1995Q3 1995Q4 1996Q1 1996Q2 1996Q3 1992 1993 1994 1995
Total Payroll Employmenta 1,808.5 1,814.9 1,814.7 1,815.1 1,819.5 1,674.4 1,716.7 1,758.4 1,804.8
Year-over-Year Percent Change 2.5 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.6 2.0 2.5 2.4 2.6
Quarterly Percent Change 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.2
Manufacturing Payroll Employmenta 389.5 387.9 383.8 378.4 377.2 380.7 384.3 386.4 391.0
Year-over-Year Percent Change 0.5 -0.8 -2.6 -3.6 -3.1 0.3 0.9 0.6 1.2
Quarterly Percent Change -0.8 -0.4 -1.1 -1.4 -0.3
Civilian Unemployment Rate 6.5 6.4 5.0 5.3 4.7 7.4 7.6 6.0 6.3
Initial Unemployment Claimsb 379.0 449.3 409.8 364.3 320.5 355.8 362.9 300.1 361.7
Year-over-Year Percent Change 25.3 70.3 39.3 12.4 -15.4 -13.8 2.0 -17.3 20.5
Quarterly Percent Change 16.9 18.5 -8.8 -11.1 -12.0
Single-Family Building Permitsc 13,855 14,785 17,476 17,273 16,966 11,546 12,815 14,443 13,412
Year-over-Year Percent Change 2.1 7.3 44.7 33.6 22.5 30.6 11.0 12.7 -7.1
Quarterly Percent Change 7.2 6.7 18.2 -1.2 -1.8
Multifamily Building Permitsc 6,154 8,484 3,331 4,866 4,489 2,359 3,290 4,693 6,702
Year-over-Year Percent Change 25.6 103.3 -36.6 -29.7 -27.0 -3.2 39.5 42.6 42.8
Quarterly Percent Change -11.1 37.9 -60.7 46.1 -7.7
Personal Incomed 82.1 82.8 84.0 85.1 -- 69.8 73.0 77.0 81.6
Year-over-Year Percent Change 5.7 4.9 4.4 5.1 -- 7.2 4.5 5.6 5.9
Quarterly Percent Change 1.3 0.9 1.4 1.4 --
Birmingham
Total Payroll Employmenta 442.2 442.2 447.2 446.9 445.4 409.0 418.5 429.9 442.0
Year-over-Year Percent Change 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.2 0.7 1.5 2.3 2.7 2.8
Quarterly Percent Change 0.2 0.5 0.7 -0.1 -0.3
Civilian Unemployment Rate 4.2 4.2 3.2 3.3 2.8 5.8 5.6 4.1 4.3
Florida
Quarterly Annual Averages
1995Q3 1995Q4 1996Q1 1996Q2 1996Q3 1992 1993 1994 1995
Total Payroll Employmenta 6,026.0 6,080.8 6,114.0 6,146.7 6,193.6 5,358.6 5,571.5 5,799.4 6,001.8
Year-over-Year Percent Change 3.4 3.3 3.0 3.0 2.8 1.2 4.0 4.1 3.5
Quarterly Percent Change 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.8
Manufacturing Payroll Employmenta 482.4 481.6 480.1 479.7 480.0 482.9 485.2 484.0 482.7
Year-over-Year Percent Change -0.5 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.5 -2.0 0.5 -0.2 -0.3
Quarterly Percent Change -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.1
Civilian Unemployment Rate 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.2 5.2 8.3 7.0 6.6 5.5
Initial Unemployment Claimsb 483.5 460.6 490.3 491.5 468.6 627.1 514.7 511.5 481.9
Year-over-Year Percent Change -5.9 -0.1 2.6 -2.8 -3.1 -5.9 -17.9 -0.6 -5.8
Quarterly Percent Change -4.4 -4.7 6.5 0.2 -4.7
Single-Family Building Permitsc 82,214 88,704 85,060 88,191 86,130 83,710 91,261 96.276 84,071
Year-over-Year Percent Change -17.4 0.3 0.2 9.6 4.8 17.9 9.0 5.5 -12.7
Quarterly Percent Change 2.2 7.9 -4.1 3.7 -2.3
Multifamily Building Permitsc 37,072 44,891 34,116 30,498 40,792 18,312 23,842 32,326 38,832
Year-over-Year Percent Change -7.7 28.9 -9.5 -14.5 10.0 -24.7 30.2 35.6 20.1
Quarterly Percent Change 4.0 21.1 -24.0 -10.6 33.8
Personal Incomed 329.3 333.6 340.9 346.3 -- 269.7 290.1 304.1 326.7
Year-over-Year Percent Change 7.1 7.2 6.5 6.9 -- 4.1 7.6 4.8 7.4
Quarterly Percent Change 1.7 1.3 2.2 1.6 --
Fort Lauderdale
Total Payroll Employmenta 588.7 592.0 600.3 605.4 611.0 513.3 540.1 564.7 584.4
Year-over-Year Percent Change 3.4 3.4 3.9 4.5 3.8 1.8 5.2 4.6 3.5
Quarterly Percent Change 1.6 0.6 1.4 0.9 0.9
Civilian Unemployment Rate 5.5 5.8 5.7 5.2 5.1 8.2 6.9 6.5 5.7
Jacksonville
Total Payroll Employmenta 483.1 486.9 491.6 489.6 492.6 423.6 438.6 459.3 480.8
Year-over-Year Percent Change 4.4 3.8 3.7 2.1 2.0 0.9 3.5 4.7 4.7
Quarterly Percent Change 0.8 0.8 1.0 -0.4 0.6
Civilian Unemployment Rate 3.4 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.8 6.7 5.5 4.8 3.7
Miami
Total Payroll Employmenta 935.6 939.8 949.0 948.1 951.9 857.4 890.8 909.7 931.7
Year-over-Year Percent Change 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.3 1.7 0.2 3.9 2.1 2.4
Quarterly Percent Change 1.0 0.4 1.0 -0.1 0.4
Civilian Unemployment Rate 7.0 7.5 7.2 7.6 7.3 10.0 8.2 8.4 7.3
Orlando
Total Payroll Employmenta 712.1 719.2 722.9 725.9 734.5 618.5 650.0 682.7 710.3
Year-over-Year Percent Change 3.7 3.5 2.7 2.8 3.2 3.1 5.1 5.0 4.0
Quarterly Percent Change 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.4 1.2
Civilian Unemployment Rate 4.2 4.5 4.5 3.9 3.7 7.5 6.1 5.7 4.5
Tampa
Total Payroll Employmenta 999.2 1,008.9 1,016.3 1,019.4 1,027.6 867.2 903.7 957.3 995.6
Year-over-Year Percent Change 3.8 3.6 3.4 2.8 2.8 1.1 4.2 5.9 4.0
Quarterly Percent Change 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.8
Civilian Unemployment Rate 4.1 4.5 4.4 4.0 3.8 7.2 6.4 5.3 4.4
West Palm Beach
Total Payroll Employmenta 400.0 400.5 401.0 404.8 410.3 355.0 369.5 386.1 396.7
Year-over-Year Percent Change 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.6 0.3 4.1 4.5 2.7
Quarterly Percent Change 1.4 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.4
Civilian Unemployment Rate 6.8 7.4 7.4 6.8 6.9 9.9 9.0 8.8 7.2
Georgia
Quarterly Annual Averages
1995Q3 1995Q4 1996Q1 1996Q2 1996Q3 1992 1993 1994 1995
Total Payroll Employmenta 3,440.0 3,473.7 3,497.8 3,537.2 3,568.9 2,987.0 3,108.8 3,265.6 3,418.4
Year-over-Year Percent Change 4.9 4.4 3.9 4.2 3.7 1.7 4.1 5.0 4.7
Quarterly Percent Change 1.4 1.0 0.7 1.1 0.9
Manufacturing Payroll Employmenta 588.0 585.8 587.8 586.9 589.4 545.2 558.3 577.3 588.8
Year-over-Year Percent Change 1.5 -0.1 -0.7 -0.4 0.2 0.8 2.4 3.4 2.0
Quarterly Percent Change -0.3 -0.4 0.3 -0.1 0.4
Civilian Unemployment Rate 5.0 4.9 4.6 4.5 4.4 7.0 5.8 5.2 4.9
Initial Unemployment Claimsb 420.8 400.1 403.2 362.5 357.0 449.9 407.3 387.3 407.5
Year-over-Year Percent Change -2.7 13.4 8.5 -17.1 -15.2 -14.3 -9.5 -4.9 5.2
Quarterly Percent Change -3.8 -4.9 0.8 -10.1 -1.5
Single-Family Building Permitsc 58,810 58,491 64,942 69,419 60,716 42,087 47,599 52,530 55,027
Year-over-Year Percent Change 17.2 10.9 32.0 29.5 3.2 25.3 13.1 10.4 4.8
Quarterly Percent Change 9.7 -0.5 11.0 6.9 -12.5
Multifamily Building Permitsc 15,163 13,319 17,084 20,232 21,072 2,479 6,275 12,330 17,198
Year-over-Year Percent Change 16.9 -14.3 -9.1 -6.0 39.0 -37.8 153.1 96.5 39.5
Quarterly Percent Change -29.5 -12.2 28.3 18.4 4.2
Personal Incomed 157.6 160.9 163.2 166.5 -- 127.9 135.7 145.4 156.6
Year-over-Year Percent Change 7.5 7.4 6.6 7.6 -- 7.6 6.1 7.1 7.7
Quarterly Percent Change 1.9 2.1 1.4 2.0 --
Atlanta
Total Payroll Employmenta 1,831.2 1,854.1 1,879.5 1,906.7 1,924.4 1,549.7 1,635.3 1,732.6 1,820.7
Year-over-Year Percent Change 5.1 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.1 2.9 5.5 6.0 5.1
Quarterly Percent Change 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.4 0.9
Civilian Unemployment Rate 4.4 4.3 3.8 3.6 3.7 6.3 5.3 4.7 4.3
Louisiana
Quarterly Annual Averages
1995Q3 1995Q4 1996Q1 1996Q2 1996Q3 1992 1993 1994 1995
Total Payroll Employmenta 1,781.6 1,794.6 1,800.5 1,801.2 1,803.2 1,627.0 1,658.5 1,722.0 1,775.0
Year-over-Year Percent Change 2.8 2.8 2.5 1.9 1.2 0.9 1.9 3.8 3.1
Quarterly Percent Change 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.1
Manufacturing Payroll Employmenta 188.8 188.7 188.6 190.3 189.9 185.0 185.4 186.4 188.4
Year-over-Year Percent Change 0.9 0.7 0.5 1.2 0.6 -0.7 0.2 0.6 1.0
Quarterly Percent Change 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.9 -0.2
Civilian Unemployment Rate 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.8 8.2 7.5 8.1 6.9
Initial Unemployment Claimsb 193.5 212.5 185.6 170.6 174.8 245.9 200.7 187.8 199.3
Year-over-Year Percent Change 2.8 23.0 -5.5 -12.5 -9.7 2.4 -18.4 -6.4 6.1
Quarterly Percent Change -0.7 9.8 -12.7 -8.1 2.5
Single-Family Building Permitsc 13,057 13,138 14,317 14,522 13,251 8,859 10,363 12,758 12,461
Year-over-Year Percent Change 8.0 7.7 24.3 19.7 1.5 32.8 17.0 23.1 -2.3
Quarterly Percent Change 7.6 0.6 9.0 1.4 -8.8
Multifamily Building Permitsc 2,049 2,306 2,567 3,655 1,589 891 863 2,024 2,262
Year-over-Year Percent Change -56.0 39.1 -23.2 170.7 -22.5 74.0 -3.1 134.5 11.8
Quarterly Percent Change 51.8 12.5 11.3 42.4 -56.5
Personal Incomed 83.2 83.6 84.3 85.5 -- 70.0 73.7 78.1 82.4
Year-over-Year Percent Change 5.9 5.2 4.1 4.5 -- 5.9 5.3 5.9 5.6
Quarterly Percent Change 1.6 0.4 0.9 1.4 --
New Orleans
Total Payroll Employmenta 600.7 600.0 601.3 598.8 602.2 561.1 569.7 584.9 599.1
Year-over-Year Percent Change 2.4 1.4 1.1 -0.3 0.2 0.1 1.5 2.7 2.4
Quarterly Percent Change 0.0 -0.1 0.2 -0.4 0.6
Civilian Unemployment Rate 6.1 6.4 6.5 6.2 6.4 6.9 7.0 7.4 6.4
Mississippi
Quarterly Annual Averages
1995Q3 1995Q4 1996Q1 1996Q2 1996Q3 1992 1993 1994 1995
Total Payroll Employmenta 1,078.5 1,076.3 1,078.1 1,080.9 1,075.8 960.3 1,002.2 1,055.5 1,075.1
Year-over-Year Percent Change 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.7 -0.3 2.4 4.4 5.3 1.9
Quarterly Percent Change 0.5 -0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.5
Manufacturing Payroll Employmenta 256.4 252.1 247.3 244.6 242.0 252.0 255.7 261.0 258.1
Year-over-Year Percent Change -2.4 -3.8 -6.2 -6.1 -5.6 2.1 1.5 2.1 -1.1
Quarterly Percent Change -1.5 -1.7 -1.9 -1.1 -1.0
Civilian Unemployment Rate 6.4 6.2 6.2 6.1 5.8 8.2 6.4 6.6 6.1
Initial Unemployment Claimsb 219.1 225.1 211.9 186.0 173.2 207.2 160.2 161.4 199.4
Year-over-Year Percent Change 34.6 46.7 31.4 -3.1 -20.9 -13.4 -22.7 0.8 23.5
Quarterly Percent Change 14.1 2.7 -5.9 -12.2 -6.9
Single-Family Building Permitsc 7,582 7,669 9,340 9,099 8,481 5,487 6,870 7,976 7,267
Year-over-Year Percent Change -2.7 2.3 43.1 24.9 11.9 24.2 25.2 16.1 -8.9
Quarterly Percent Change 4.0 1.1 21.8 -2.6 -6.8
Multifamily Building Permitsc 1,287 3,978 3,347 4,495 1,145 834 1,246 2,957 3,486
Year-over-Year Percent Change -51.2 54.7 -49.3 116.4 -11.0 12.4 49.4 137.3 17.9
Quarterly Percent Change -38.0 209.1 -15.9 34.3 -74.5
Personal Incomed 45.3 45.9 46.2 46.8 -- 37.1 39.2 42.5 45.0
Year-over-Year Percent Change 5.6 5.6 4.6 4.9 -- 6.8 5.8 8.3 6.0
Quarterly Percent Change 1.5 1.4 0.7 1.3 --
Jackson
Total Payroll Employmenta 210.7 211.7 212.6 211.4 210.9 190.2 195.7 204.5 209.8
Year-over-Year Percent Change 2.3 2.8 2.4 1.1 0.1 2.0 2.9 4.5 2.6
Quarterly Percent Change 0.8 0.5 0.5 -0.6 -0.2
Civilian Unemployment Rate 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.6 3.3 5.8 4.7 4.5 3.9
Tennessee
Quarterly Annual Averages
1995Q3 1995Q4 1996Q1 1996Q2 1996Q3 1992 1993 1994 1995
Total Payroll Employmenta 2,507.2 2,536.4 2,554.8 2,554.1 2,564.2 2,244.8 2,328.4 2,422.9 2,503.1
Year-over-Year Percent Change 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.8 3.7 4.1 3.3
Quarterly Percent Change 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.0 0.4
Manufacturing Payroll Employmenta 540.5 538.5 535.3 529.9 527.0 514.5 528.5 539.0 542.5
Year-over-Year Percent Change -0.1 -0.8 -2.2 -2.5 -2.5 2.3 2.7 2.0 0.6
Quarterly Percent Change -0.6 -0.4 -0.6 -1.0 -0.6
Civilian Unemployment Rate 5.5 5.5 5.3 4.8 4.6 6.4 5.8 4.8 5.2
Initial Unemployment Claimsb 461.4 502.1 523.7 471.5 490.5 469.1 410.5 387.8 437.5
Year-over-Year Percent Change 21.3 50.2 37.8 16.0 6.3 -14.0 -12.5 -5.5 12.8
Quarterly Percent Change 13.5 8.8 4.3 -10.0 4.0
Single-Family Building Permitsc 29,676 29,095 28,050 28,882 25,082 21,214 24,065 26,824 27,695
Year-over-Year Percent Change 21.5 10.3 8.3 10.6 -15.5 25.4 13.4 11.5 3.2
Quarterly Percent Change 13.6 -2.0 -3.6 3.0 -13.2
Multifamily Building Permitsc 7,277 7,934 7,333 14,823 15,818 2,105 2,919 5,050 7,401
Year-over-Year Percent Change 26.9 111.2 -23.5 208.6 117.4 -10.4 38.7 73.0 46.6
Quarterly Percent Change 51.5 9.0 -7.6 102.1 6.7
Personal Incomed 111.2 112.9 113.0 114.5 -- 91.5 96.7 103.4 110.6
Year-over-Year Percent Change 6.3 5.8 4.2 4.4 -- 9.0 5.6 7.0 6.9
Quarterly Percent Change 1.3 1.6 0.1 1.3 --
Memphis
Total Payroll Employmenta 531.6 535.9 541.6 539.0 538.1 482.9 491.9 512.6 531.6
Year-over-Year Percent Change 3.2 2.0 2.6 1.5 1.2 0.9 1.9 4.2 3.7
Quarterly Percent Change 0.1 0.8 1.1 -0.5 -0.2
Civilian Unemployment Rate 5.1 5.0 4.6 4.1 3.9 5.9 5.6 4.8 4.9
Nashville
Total Payroll Employmenta 598.1 604.0 611.6 607.4 607.0 514.4 541.8 570.7 596.9
Year-over-Year Percent Change 4.0 3.6 3.5 2.1 1.5 2.8 5.3 5.3 4.6
Quarterly Percent Change 0.6 1.0 1.3 -0.7 -0.1
Civilian Unemployment Rate 3.7 3.4 3.4 2.9 3.0 5.0 4.1 3.1 3.3

a Thousands, seasonally adjusted
b Thousands, seasonally adjusted annual rate
c Units, seasonally adjusted annual rate
d $ billions, seasonally adjusted annual rate
Sources: Payroll Employment and Civilian Unemployment Rate: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Initial Unemployment Claims: U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration. Single- and Multifamily Building Permits: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Construction Statistics Division. Nonresidential Contracts: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Construction Statistics Division. Personal Income: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Quarterly estimates of all construction data reflect annual benchmark revisions.

All data obtained and seasonally adjusted by Regional Financial Associates. Small differences from previously published data reflect revisions of seasonal factors. The U.S. Department of Commerce has discontinued the series on nonresidential contracts.