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The commentaries for the 75 most recent GDPNow updates are below, starting with the latest estimate.

April 25, 2019

The final GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 2.7 percent on April 25, down from 2.8 percent on April 19. After the National Association of Realtors' existing-home sales release on Monday, April 22, and the U.S. Census Bureau's housing market releases on Tuesday, April 23, the nowcast of first-quarter real residential investment growth declined from 3.5 percent to 1.3 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, April 29. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

April 19, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 2.8 percent on April 19, unchanged from April 18 after rounding. After this morning’s new residential construction report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real residential investment growth inched down from 4.0 percent to 3.5 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, April 25. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

April 18, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 2.8 percent on April 18, up from 2.4 percent on April 17. After this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 0.8 percent to 1.1 percent. After this morning’s retail inventories release from the Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.24 percentage points to 0.39 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, April 19. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

April 17, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 2.4 percent on April 17, up from 2.3 percent on April 8. After this morning's international trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.20 percentage points to 0.50 percentage points, and the nowcast of first-quarter real nonresidential equipment investment growth decreased from 4.8 percent to 2.1 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, April 18. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

April 8, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 2.3 percent on April 8, up from 2.1 percent on April 2. After this morning's manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.15 percentage points to 0.24 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, April 17. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

April 2, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 2.1 percent on April 2, unchanged from April 1. After this morning's advance durable manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real nonresidential equipment investment growth inched up from 3.7 percent to 4.0 percent, and the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter real GDP growth inched down from 0.27 percentage points to 0.21 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, April 8. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

April 1, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 2.1 percent on April 1, up from 1.7 percent on March 29. After this morning's data releases from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth inched up from 0.5 percent to 0.6 percent, the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 4.3 percent to 5.4 percent, and the nowcast of first-quarter real government expenditures growth increased from 2.6 percent to 3.5 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, April 2. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

March 29, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 1.7 percent on March 29, up from 1.5 percent on March 27. A decrease in the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 0.9 percent to 0.5 percent after this morning’s personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis was more than offset by increases in the nowcasts of real nonresidential equipment investment growth, real residential investment growth, and the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter real GDP growth.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, April 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

March 27, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 1.5 percent on March 27, up from 1.3 percent on March 26. After this morning’s international trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.29 percentage points to 0.12 percentage points, and the nowcast of first-quarter real nonresidential equipment investment growth declined from 2.2 percent to 0.2 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, March 29. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

March 26, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 1.3 percent on March 26, up from 1.2 percent on March 22. After this morning's new residential construction release from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real residential investment growth increased from 0.6 percent to 1.3 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, March 27. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

March 22, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 1.2 percent on March 22, up from 0.4 percent on March 13. The nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.40 percentage points to -0.02 percentage points after this morning's wholesale trade release from the U.S. Census Bureau. After this morning's existing-home sales release from the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of first-quarter real residential investment growth increased from -4.8 percent to 0.6 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, March 26. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

March 13, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 0.4 percent on March 13, up from 0.2 percent on March 11. After reports on durable manufacturing and construction spending were released by the U.S. Census Bureau this morning, the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -2.9 percent to -2.4 percent, and the nowcast of first-quarter real government expenditures growth increased from 1.7 percent to 2.5 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, March 22. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

March 11, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 0.2 percent on March 11, down from 0.5 percent on March 8. After this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth declined from 1.5 percent to 1.0 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, March 13. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

March 8, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 0.5 percent on March 8, unchanged from March 6. An increase in the nowcast of first-quarter real residential investment growth from -10.0 percent to -7.7 percent after this morning’s new residential construction release from the U.S. Census Bureau was offset by slight decreases in the nowcasts of the first-growth growth rates of real personal consumption expenditures, real private nonresidential fixed investment, and real government expenditures, after this morning’s employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, March 11. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

March 6, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 0.5 percent on March 6, up from 0.3 percent on March 4. After the Monthly Treasury Statement from the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service was released on Tuesday, March 5, the nowcast of first-quarter real government expenditures growth increased from 1.3 percent to 1.9 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, March 8. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

March 4, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 0.3 percent on March 4, unchanged from March 1. After this morning’s construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real nonresidential structures investment decreased from -0.8 percent to -2.7 percent and the nowcast of first-quarter real residential investment increased from -13.2 percent to -11.0 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, March 6. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

March 1, 2019

The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 0.3 percent on March 1. The initial estimate of fourth-quarter real GDP growth released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on February 28 was 2.6 percent, 0.8 percentage points above the final GDPNow model nowcast released the previous day.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, March 4. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

February 27, 2019

The final GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 1.8 percent on February 27, unchanged from February 26. After this morning’s Advance Economic Indicators and manufacturing reports from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -0.1 percent to 1.9 percent, and the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.22 percentage points to -0.52 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, March 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

February 26, 2019

Note: Updates of GDPNow nowcasts of GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2018 will continue until the day before the first official estimate is released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on February 28. The initial GDPNow nowcast of first-quarter GDP growth is now scheduled for March 1 after the personal income and outlays release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 1.8 percent on February 26, down from 1.9 percent on February 25. After this morning's new residential construction report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real residential investment growth declined from -4.4 percent to -5.8 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, February 27. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

February 25, 2019

Note: Updates of GDPNow nowcasts of GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2018 will continue until the day before the first official estimate is released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on February 28. The initial GDPNow nowcast of first-quarter GDP growth is now scheduled for March 1 after the personal income and outlays release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 1.9 percent on February 25, up from 1.4 percent on February 21. After this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to fourth-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.58 percentage points to -0.15 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, February 26. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

February 21, 2019

Note: Updates of GDPNow nowcasts of GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2018 will continue until the day before the first official estimate is released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on February 28. The initial GDPNow nowcast of first-quarter GDP growth is now scheduled for March 1 after the personal income and outlays release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 1.4 percent on February 21, down from 1.5 percent on February 14. After this morning's advance durable manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real nonresidential equipment investment growth declined from 4.5 percent to 3.9 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, February 25. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

February 14, 2019

Note: Updates of GDPNow nowcasts of GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2018 will continue until the day before the first official estimate is released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on February 28. The initial GDPNow nowcast of first-quarter GDP growth is now scheduled for March 1 after the personal income and outlays release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 1.5 percent on February 14, down from 2.7 percent on February 6. After this morning's retail sales and retail inventories releases from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth fell from 3.7 percent to 2.6 percent, and the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to fourth-quarter real GDP growth fell from -0.27 percentage points to -0.55 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, February 21. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

February 6, 2019

Note: Updates of GDPNow nowcasts of GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2018 will continue until the day before the first official estimate is released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on February 28. The initial GDPNow nowcast of first-quarter GDP growth is now scheduled for March 1 after the personal income and outlays release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.7 percent on February 6, up from 2.5 percent on February 1. The nowcast of the contribution of net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.52 percentage points to -0.23 percentage points after this morning’s international trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, February 14, barring any further updates by the U.S. Census Bureau or the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis to their economic release schedules.

February 1, 2019

Note: Updates of GDPNow nowcasts of GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2018 will continue until the first official estimate is released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The initial GDPNow nowcast of first-quarter GDP growth will not occur at least until the first official estimate of GDP growth in the previous quarter is released.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.5 percent on February 1, down from 2.7 percent on January 31. The nowcast of fourth-quarter real nonresidential structures investment growth decreased from -1.2 percent to -5.4 percent after this morning's construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, February 6. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

January 31, 2019

Note: Updates of GDPNow nowcasts of GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2018 will continue until the first official estimate is released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The initial GDPNow nowcast of first-quarter GDP growth will not occur at least until the first official estimate of GDP growth in the previous quarter is released.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.7 percent, on January 31, unchanged from January 22. The nowcast of fourth-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from -4.3 percent to -5.0 percent after this morning's housing market releases from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, February 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

January 29, 2019

Note: The GDPNow forecast of fourth-quarter real GDP growth was not updated on January 29, because the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Economic Indicators report was not released.

The current GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.7 percent, down from 2.8 percent on January 18. The nowcast of fourth-quarter real residential investment growth declined from -2.6 percent to -4.3 after the existing-home sales release on Tuesday, January 22, from the National Association of Realtors.

January 25, 2019

The current GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.7 percent, down from 2.8 percent on January 18. The nowcast of fourth-quarter real residential investment growth declined from -2.6 percent to -4.3 after the existing-home sales release on Tuesday, January 22, from the National Association of Realtors.

January 16, 2019

Note: The GDPNow forecast of fourth-quarter real GDP growth was not updated on January 17, because the U.S. Census Bureau’s new residential construction report was not released due to the partial government shutdown.

The current GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.8 percent on January 16, unchanged from January 10. The nowcast of the contribution of net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth inched down from -0.50 percentage points to -0.52 percentage points after this morning’s U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

January 16, 2019

The current GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.8 percent on January 16, unchanged from January 10. The nowcast of the contribution of net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth inched down from -0.50 percentage points to -0.52 percentage points after this morning’s U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

January 10, 2019

The current GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 remains 2.8 percent on January 10. The nowcast was unchanged after rounding following this morning's revisions to previously published data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey and the U.S. Department of Labor's weekly report on initial unemployment insurance claims.

January 8, 2019

The current GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.8 percent, up from 2.6 percent on January 3. The nowcasts of fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth and fourth-quarter real private fixed investment growth increased from 3.6 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively, to 3.8 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively, after the employment situation release by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, January 4.

January 3, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.6 percent on January 3, down from 2.7 percent on December 21. The nowcasts of fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth and fourth-quarter real private fixed investment growth decreased from 3.7 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively, to 3.6 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively, after this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, January 8. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

December 21, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.7 percent on December 21, down from 2.9 percent on December 18. The nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth decreased from 4.1 percent to 3.7 percent after this morning's personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, January 3. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

December 18, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.9 percent on December 18, down from 3.0 percent on December 14. The nowcast of fourth-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from -2.4 percent to -4.2 percent after this morning’s new residential construction release from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, December 21. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

December 14, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 3.0 percent on December 14, up from 2.4 percent on December 7. The nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 3.3 percent to 4.1 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, December 18. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

December 7, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.4 percent on December 7, down from 2.7 percent on December 6. The nowcast of fourth-quarter real final sales of domestic product growth decreased from 2.9 percent to 2.7 percent after this morning’s employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.23 percentage points to -0.33 percentage points after the employment report and this morning’s wholesale trade release from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, December 14. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

December 6, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.7 percent on December 6, down from 2.8 percent on December 3. The nowcast of the contribution of net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.42 percent to -0.50 percent after this morning's international trade release from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, December 7. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

December 3, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.8 percent on December 3, up from 2.6 percent on November 29. The nowcasts of fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth and fourth-quarter real private fixed investment growth increased from 3.2 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively, to 3.5 percent and 4.3 percent, respectively, after this morning’s construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management. The model’s estimate of the dynamic factor for November—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—increased from 0.24 to 0.70 after the ISM report this morning.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, December 6. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

November 29, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.6 percent on November 29, up from 2.5 percent on November 21. The nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 2.6 percent to 3.2 percent after this morning's personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. This increase was partly offset by a decrease in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 3.7 percent to 2.5 percent and a decrease in the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth from -0.32 percentage points to -0.39 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, December 3. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

November 21, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.5 percent on November 21, unchanged from November 20. The nowcast of fourth-quarter real nonresidential equipment investment growth declined from 11.5 percent to 10.5 percent after this morning’s advance durable manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau. The nowcast of fourth-quarter real residential investment growth increased from -6.3 percent to -4.1 percent after this morning’s existing-home sales release from the National Association of Realtors.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, November 29. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

November 20, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.5 percent on November 20, down from 2.8 percent on November 15. The nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.06 percentage points to -0.16 percentage points after yesterday morning's industrial production report from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. The nowcast of fourth-quarter real residential investment growth fell from -2.6 percent to -6.3 percent after this morning's new residential construction release from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, November 21. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

November 15, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.8 percent on November 15, down from 2.9 percent on November 9. The nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth declined from 2.9 percent to 2.7 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, November 20. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

November 9, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.9 percent on November 9, unchanged from November 2. The nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to fourth-quarter real GDP growth inched down from -0.05 percentage points to -0.08 percentage points after this morning's Producer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, November 15. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

November 2, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.9 percent on November 2, down from 3.0 percent on November 1. An increase in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real nonresidential equipment investment growth from 10.9 percent to 11.8 percent after this morning’s data releases was more than offset by a decrease in the nowcast of real government spending growth from 2.4 percent to 2.2 percent and a decrease in the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to fourth-quarter real GDP growth from -0.01 percentage points to -0.05 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, November 9. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

November 1, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 3.0 percent on November 1, up from 2.6 percent on October 29. The nowcasts of fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth and fourth-quarter real private fixed investment growth increased from 2.8 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively, to 2.9 percent and 5.2 percent, respectively, after this morning's construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, November 2. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

October 29, 2018

The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.6 percent on October 29. The advance estimate of third-quarter real GDP growth released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on October 26 was 3.5 percent, 0.1 percentage point below the final GDPNow model nowcast released the previous day.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, November 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

October 25, 2018

The final GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 3.6 percent on October 25, down from 3.9 percent on October 17. The nowcast of third-quarter real residential investment growth fell from -1.6 percent to -4.1 percent after housing market reports from the National Association of Realtors and the U.S. Census Bureau. An increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real nonresidential equipment investment growth from 2.7 percent to 3.8 percent was more than offset by declines in the nowcasts of the contributions of net exports and inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth from -1.11 percentage points and 2.20 percentage points, respectively, to -1.24 percentage points and 2.08 percentage points, respectively, after this morning’s advance reports on durable manufacturing, international trade, and inventories from the Census Bureau.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, October 29. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

October 17, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 3.9 percent on October 17, down from 4.0 percent on October 15. On October 16, the nowcast of third-quarter real government expenditures growth fell from 2.1 percent to 1.3 percent after the U.S. Department of the Treasury and its Bureau of the Fiscal Service released the Monthly Treasury Statement during the afternoon of the previous day.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, October 25. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

October 15, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.0 percent on October 15, down from 4.2 percent on October 10. After this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth fell from 3.6 percent to 3.3 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, October 17. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

October 10, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.2 percent on October 10, up from 4.1 percent on October 5. After this morning’s wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's Producer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from 2.09 percentage points to 2.20 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, October 15. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

October 5, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.1 percent on October 5, unchanged from October 1. Slight declines in the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real private fixed investment growth after this morning’s employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics were offset by slight increases in the nowcasts of the contributions of government spending, net exports, and inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth after the employment report and this morning’s international trade release from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, October 10. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

October 1, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.1 percent on October 1, up from 3.6 percent on September 28. The nowcast of third-quarter real government spending growth increased from 1.0 percent to 1.7 percent after this morning’s construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau. The nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 3.5 percent to 3.7 percent after this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management. The nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from 1.88 percentage points to 2.14 percentage points after the release of July manufacturing and trade inventories on Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and this morning’s ISM report.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, October 5. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

September 28, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 3.6 percent on September 28, down from 3.8 percent on September 27. The nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth decreased from 3.7 percent to 3.5 percent after this morning’s personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, October 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

September 27, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 3.8 percent on September 27, down from 4.4 percent on September 19. The nowcast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth declined from -0.72 percentage points to -1.20 percentage points after this morning’s GDP release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and this morning’s advance release on international trade in goods from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, September 28. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

September 19, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.4 percent on September 19, unchanged from September 14. After this morning’s new residential construction release from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real residential investment growth inched up from -0.7 percent to -0.2 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, September 27. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

September 14, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.4 percent on September 14, up from 3.8 percent on September 11. The nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 3.0 percent to 3.7 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, September 19. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

September 11, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 3.8 percent on September 11, down from 4.4 percent on September 5. After last Friday morning’s employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the nowcasts of third-quarter real consumer spending growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 3.3 percent and 15.9 percent, respectively, to 3.0 percent and 14.0 percent, respectively. The model's estimate of the dynamic factor for August—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—declined from 1.11 to 0.41 after Friday's employment report.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, September 14. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

September 5, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.4 percent on September 5, down from 4.7 percent on September 4. After this morning's international trade release from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth declined from -0.70 percentage points to -0.76 percentage points. After this morning's light vehicle sales release from the BEA, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth declined from 3.6 percent and 16.9 percent, respectively, to 3.3 percent and 16.4 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, September 11. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

September 4, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.7 percent on September 4, up from 4.1 percent on August 30. The nowcasts of third-quarter real consumer spending growth and third-quarter real private fixed investment growth increased from 3.0 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively, to 3.6 percent and 4.3 percent, respectively, after this morning's construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management. The model's estimate of the dynamic factor for August—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—increased from 0.18 to 1.14 after the ISM report this morning.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, September 5. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

August 30, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.1 percent on August 30, down from 4.6 percent on August 24. After the Advance Economic Indicators release from the U.S. Census Bureau on August 28, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth declined from -0.26 percentage points to -0.64 percentage points and the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth declined from 16.1 percent to 15.5 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, September 4. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

August 24, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.6 percent on August 24, up from 4.3 percent on August 16. After yesterday’s releases on new-home sales and costs from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real residential investment growth increased from -4.5 percent to -1.1 percent. After this morning’s advance durable manufacturing report from the Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real nonresidential equipment investment growth increased from 6.4 percent to 7.5 percent and the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from 1.92 percentage points to 2.03 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, August 30. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

August 16, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.3 percent on August 16, unchanged from August 15 after rounding. After this morning's new residential construction report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from -3.3 percent to -4.8 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, August 24. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

August 15, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.3 percent on August 15, unchanged from August 9. After this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 2.9 percent to 3.1 percent. This increase was offset by a decline in the nowcast of third-quarter real nonresidential structures investment growth from 3.0 percent to -1.6 percent after this morning's industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, August 16. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

August 9, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.3 percent on August 9, down from 4.4 percent on August 3. After this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's Producer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth declined from 1.95 percentage points to 1.91 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, August 15. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

August 3, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.4 percent on August 3, down from 5.0 percent on August 1. After this morning's data releases, the nowcasts of third-quarter real consumer spending growth and third-quarter real private fixed investment growth declined from 3.4 percent and 5.9 percent, respectively, to 2.9 percent and 4.2 percent, respectively. These declines more than offset an increase in the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth from 1.80 percentage points to 1.95 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, August 9. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

August 1, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 5.0 percent on August 1, up from 4.7 percent on July 31. The nowcasts of third-quarter real consumer spending growth and third-quarter real private fixed investment growth increased from 3.1 percent and 5.2 percent, respectively, to 3.4 percent and 5.8 percent, respectively, after this morning's construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management. The model's estimate of the dynamic factor for July—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—increased from 0.21 to 0.52 after the ISM report this morning.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, August 3. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

July 31, 2018

The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.7 percent. The advance estimate of second-quarter real GDP growth released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on July 27 was 4.1 percent, 0.3 percentage points above the final GDPNow model nowcast released on the previous day.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, August 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

July 26, 2018

The final GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 3.8 percent on July 26, down from 4.5 percent on July 18. After this morning's advance releases on durable manufacturing, private inventories, and foreign trade in goods from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of the contributions of inventory investment and net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth declined from 0.72 percentage points and 0.32 percentage points, respectively, to 0.58 percentage points and -0.10 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update will take place shortly after the U.S. Bureau Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the revised underlying detail tables of the National Income and Product Accounts to reflect the BEA's comprehensive revision of GDP released on July 27. The revised underlying detail tables will likely be released in early August. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

July 18, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 4.5 percent on July 18, unchanged from July 16. After the Federal Reserve Board of Governors' industrial production release on Wednesday, July 17, modest increases in the nowcasts of second-quarter real consumer spending growth and second-quarter real private fixed investment growth were offset by a decrease in the nowcast of second-quarter real private inventory investment. The nowcast of second-quarter real residential investment growth inched down from 0.4 percent to 0.0 percent after this morning's new residential construction release from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, July 26. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

July 16, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 4.5 percent on July 16, up from 3.9 percent on July 11. The nowcast of second-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 2.7 percent to 3.1 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau. The nowcast of second-quarter real federal government spending growth increased from 1.4 percent to 5.6 percent after the Monthly Treasury Statement release on Thursday, July 12, from the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, July 18. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

July 11, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 3.9 percent on July 11, up from 3.8 percent on July 6. The nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.29 percentage points to 0.36 percentage points after this morning's Producer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and this morning's wholesale trade release from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, July 16. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

July 6, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 3.8 percent on July 6, down from 4.1 percent on July 2. Since the last GDPNow update on Monday, July 2, the nowcasts of second-quarter real consumer spending growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth have declined from 2.9 percent and 7.1 percent, respectively, to 2.7 percent and 6.0 percent, respectively. These declines more than offset an increase in the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth from 0.62 percentage points to 0.70 percentage points after this morning's international trade release from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, July 11. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

July 2, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 4.1 percent on July 2, up from 3.8 percent on June 29. After this morning's construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real government spending growth increased from 0.8 percent to 1.6 percent, while the nowcast of second-quarter real nonresidential structures investment growth decreased from 7.6 percent to 5.3 percent. The nowcasts of second-quarter real consumer spending growth and second-quarter real nonresidential equipment investment growth increased from 2.7 percent and 4.0 percent, respectively, to 2.9 percent and 4.8 percent, respectively, after this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management. The model's estimate of the dynamic factor for June—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—increased from 0.15 to 0.77 after the ISM report this morning.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, July 6. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

June 29, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 3.8 percent on June 29, down from 4.5 percent on June 27. The nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth declined from 3.7 percent to 2.7 percent after this morning's personal income and outlays report from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, July 2. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

June 27, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 4.5 percent on June 27, down from 4.7 percent on June 19. The nowcast of real residential investment growth declined from 2.9 percent to 0.6 percent after the existing-home sales release from the National Association of Realtors on Wednesday, June 20, and the U.S. Census Bureau's releases on new-home sales and costs on Monday, June 25. After this morning's advance releases on durable manufacturing, inventories, and international trade in goods from the Census Bureau, the nowcasts of the contributions of inventory investment and net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth changed from 0.87 percentage points and 0.39 percentage points, respectively, to 0.46 percentage points and 0.66 percentage points, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, June 29. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.