May 31, 2016
GDPNow Forecast for Second Quarter Unchanged
On May 31, the GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.9 percent. View GDPNow for more details.
May 11, 2016
GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index
The U.S. economy is still in an expansion phase, according to the latest reading of the GDP-based recession index.
Apr 19, 2016
Affine Term Structure Pricing with Bond Supply as Factors
CQER Working Paper 16-01 (April)
The author investigates how the maturity structure of government debt affects the yield curve. He uses an affine term structure model in which the factors for the yield curve include the short rate and the government bond supply for each maturity.
Apr 15, 2016
Labor Force Participation: Aging Is Only Half of the Story
The labor force participation rate has fluctuated considerably in recent years, and demographics only partially explain the changes. A new macroblog post examines other factors at work behind changes in this important measurement of economic productivity.
Apr 13, 2016
Putting the MetLife Decision into an Economic Context
MetLife's recent successful petition to rescind its status as too big to fail raises a host of questions about what qualifies a firm as systemically important to the financial system. A new macroblog post examines these questions and the issues that surround them.
Apr 11, 2016
The Rise of Shadow Banking in China
Commercial banks in China have been increasing their risk-taking activities in the form of shadow lending. A new macroblog post ponders the risks to the balance sheets of these financial institutions.
Jan 06, 2016
Wu-Xia Shadow Federal Funds Rate
In December, the Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds rate for the first time in seven years. Because the Wu-Xia shadow fed funds rate was very highly correlated with the fed funds rate prior to December 2008, we will discontinue regular updates.