Dec 01, 2016

The Impact of Extraordinary Monetary Policy on the Financial Sector - December 1–2, 2016

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Nov 21, 2016

Prudential Regulation, Big Data, and Machine Learning

The financial services industry is being increasingly influenced by trends in big data and machine learning. This Notes from the Vault post considers the extent to which these developments may influence prudential regulation of financial firms and markets.

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Nov 07, 2016

Market Probability Tracker Updated with New Data

The FOMC just concluded its November meeting. Find out how this changed the market's assessment of 3-month average fed funds in our Market Probability Tracker.

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Sep 29, 2016

Avoiding Regulation: FinTech versus the Sharing Economy

Many fintech firms have made the unpleasant discovery that the financial services industry is one of the most highly regulated sectors. This Notes from the Vault post discusses the relationship between fintech and the financial supervisory agencies.

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Aug 31, 2016

Market Expectations of Fed Policy: A New Tool

The market's view of the path of Federal Reserve monetary policy has an important impact on the term structure of interest rates and asset prices in general. This Notes from the Vault post discusses a new Atlanta Fed tool that uses Eurodollar options prices to infer market expectations about future short-term rates.

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Aug 31, 2016

This tool estimates the market-implied probabilities of various ranges for the three-month average fed funds rate.

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Aug 11, 2016

Forecasting Loan Losses for Stress Tests

Even with all the tools at regulators' disposal, assessing banks' ability to withstand severe shocks is an imperfect science—but an essential undertaking. A new macroblog post examines some approaches that could permit more robust forecasts of severe economic shocks' effects on the financial system.

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Aug 09, 2016

Call for Papers on the Impact of Extraordinary Monetary Policy on the Financial Sector

Academics, professionals, and regulators are invited to submit papers for the December 1-2 conference. The deadline for submissions is September 5.

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Jul 29, 2016

"Smart Contracts" in a Complex World

Smart contracts that rely on computer code are being promoted as possible replacements for paper contracts. Notes from the Vault uses the recent diversion of funds at the smart contract the Distributed Autonomous Organization (DAO) to analyze the two types of contracts.

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Jun 30, 2016

TAF: The Cure-All for Stigma?

Stigma has long inhibited use of the Federal Reserve's discount window. The Fed's Term Auction Facility (TAF) overcame stigma during the recent crisis. Notes from the Vault discusses the reasons for the TAF's success and some implications for the future.

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Jun 02, 2016

An Expert Explains High-Frequency Trading

6/2/2016 - An unprecedented call for liquidity in the markets after the financial crisis was a factor that led to high-frequency trading, according to an expert from Tradeworx, a financial technology company. Learn more by listening to this episode.

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May 31, 2016

Getting a Grip on Liquidity: Conference Takeaways

The Atlanta Fed's recent Financial Markets Conference analyzed liquidity from the perspective of markets, institutions, and central banks. Notes from the Vault discusses three takeaways from the conference related to improvements in measuring liquidity and the impacts of regulation and technology on liquidity.

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Apr 29, 2016

Ending Too Big to Fail: Lessons from Continental Illinois

Some analysts have recently called for structural changes to the banking industry to end too big to fail (TBTF). Notes from the Vault looks back at the 1984 TBTF treatment of Continental Illinois to see whether these structural measures would have prevented the bailout.

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Mar 31, 2016

Getting a Grip on Liquidity

Liquidity is a slippery concept but one that has important implications for the financial system. This Notes from the Vault post highlights some of the liquidity related issues that will be discussed in our upcoming Financial Markets Conference, Getting a Grip on Liquidity: Markets, Institutions, and Central Banks.

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Feb 29, 2016

Stress Testing with the Help of Bayes' Theorem

Bank stress tests require forecasting income statements and capital ratios under extreme economic assumptions. These assumptions often go beyond historical experience, which makes sound forecasting with a quantitative model difficult. This Notes from the Vault post explains how Bayes' theorem can help deal with these extreme assumptions, resulting in better forecasts.

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Jan 29, 2016

The Role of Intermediary Competition in Government Interventions: The Case of HARP

The federal government, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac developed the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) to help distressed mortgage borrowers. Notes from the Vault shows that HARP initially gave a competitive advantage to current servicers, which resulted in limited competition.

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