Aug 31, 2016
Market Expectations of Fed Policy: A New Tool
The market's view of the path of Federal Reserve monetary policy has an important impact on the term structure of interest rates and asset prices in general. This Notes from the Vault post discusses a new Atlanta Fed tool that uses Eurodollar options prices to infer market expectations about future short-term rates.
Aug 31, 2016
This tool estimates the market-implied probabilities of various ranges for the three-month average fed funds rate.
Aug 11, 2016
Forecasting Loan Losses for Stress Tests
Even with all the tools at regulators' disposal, assessing banks' ability to withstand severe shocks is an imperfect science—but an essential undertaking. A new macroblog post examines some approaches that could permit more robust forecasts of severe economic shocks' effects on the financial system.
Aug 09, 2016
Call for Papers on the Impact of Extraordinary Monetary Policy on the Financial Sector
Academics, professionals, and regulators are invited to submit papers for the December 1-2 conference. The deadline for submissions is September 5.
Jul 29, 2016
"Smart Contracts" in a Complex World
Smart contracts that rely on computer code are being promoted as possible replacements for paper contracts. Notes from the Vault uses the recent diversion of funds at the smart contract the Distributed Autonomous Organization (DAO) to analyze the two types of contracts.
Jun 30, 2016
TAF: The Cure-All for Stigma?
Stigma has long inhibited use of the Federal Reserve's discount window. The Fed's Term Auction Facility (TAF) overcame stigma during the recent crisis. Notes from the Vault discusses the reasons for the TAF's success and some implications for the future.
Jun 02, 2016
An Expert Explains High-Frequency Trading
6/2/2016 - An unprecedented call for liquidity in the markets after the financial crisis was a factor that led to high-frequency trading, according to an expert from Tradeworx, a financial technology company. Learn more by listening to this episode.
May 31, 2016
Getting a Grip on Liquidity: Conference Takeaways
The Atlanta Fed's recent Financial Markets Conference analyzed liquidity from the perspective of markets, institutions, and central banks. Notes from the Vault discusses three takeaways from the conference related to improvements in measuring liquidity and the impacts of regulation and technology on liquidity.
Apr 29, 2016
Ending Too Big to Fail: Lessons from Continental Illinois
Some analysts have recently called for structural changes to the banking industry to end too big to fail (TBTF). Notes from the Vault looks back at the 1984 TBTF treatment of Continental Illinois to see whether these structural measures would have prevented the bailout.
Mar 31, 2016
Getting a Grip on Liquidity
Liquidity is a slippery concept but one that has important implications for the financial system. This Notes from the Vault post highlights some of the liquidity related issues that will be discussed in our upcoming Financial Markets Conference, Getting a Grip on Liquidity: Markets, Institutions, and Central Banks.
Feb 29, 2016
Stress Testing with the Help of Bayes' Theorem
Bank stress tests require forecasting income statements and capital ratios under extreme economic assumptions. These assumptions often go beyond historical experience, which makes sound forecasting with a quantitative model difficult. This Notes from the Vault post explains how Bayes' theorem can help deal with these extreme assumptions, resulting in better forecasts.
Jan 29, 2016
The Role of Intermediary Competition in Government Interventions: The Case of HARP
The federal government, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac developed the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) to help distressed mortgage borrowers. Notes from the Vault shows that HARP initially gave a competitive advantage to current servicers, which resulted in limited competition.