Second Research Workshop on China's Economy - May 18–19, 2017

Agenda

  • Organizers: Tao Zha, (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Emory University), Nan Li, (IMF-Research Department), and Hui He, (IMF-Institute for Capacity Development).
  • Format: 40-minute presentation and 10-minute discussion with 20-minute general discussion at the conclusion of each session.
Thursday, May 18
9:00 a.m. Continental breakfast
9:30 Welcome and introductory remarks
Dr. David Altig, Executive Vice President and Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Session I: Chinese Economy: Past, Present, and Future
Chair: Toni Braun, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
9:45 "The Economy of the People's Republic of China from 1953"
with Mikhail Golosov, Sergei Guriev, and Aleh Tsyvinski
Anton Cheremukhin,
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas [Presentation Adobe PDF file format]
Discussant: Yan Bai, University of Rochester [Presentation Adobe PDF file format]
10:35 Break
10:50 "RMB Reform"
with Urban Jermann and Vivian Yue
Bin Wei, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta [Presentation Adobe PDF file format]
Discussant: Mark Spiegel, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco [Presentation Adobe PDF file format]
11:40 "The Chinese Saving Rate: Analytics and Prospects"
Longmei Zhang, International Monetary Fund China Economist [Presentation Adobe PDF file format]
Discussant: Michel Soudan, European Central Bank China Economist [Presentation Adobe PDF file format]
12:30 p.m. Open floor for general discussion
1:00 Lunch
Session II: State Capacity and Local Accountability
Chair: Dan Waggoner, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
2:15 "Political Factions, Local Accountability, and Economic Performance: Evidence from Chinese Provinces"
with Linke Hou, Mingxing Liu, Colin L. Xu, and Pengfei Zhang
Hanming Fang, University of Pennsylvania [Presentation Adobe PDF file format]
Discussant: Ruixue Jia, University of California, San Diego [Presentation Adobe PDF file format]
3:05 "The Short- and Medium-Run Effects of Computerized VAT Invoices on Tax Revenues in China" (Preliminary) Adobe PDF file format
Nancy Qian, Northwestern University [Presentation Adobe PDF file format]
Discussant: Jessica Leight, Williams College [Presentation Adobe PDF file format]
3:55 Open floor for general discussion
4:30 Reception
5:30 Dinner
6:15 Dinner presentation
Maurice Obstfeld, Economic Counsellor and Director of Research, International Monetary Fund
[Presentation Adobe PDF file format]
(45-minute talk and 15-minute Q&A)
Friday, May 19
8:30 a.m. Continental breakfast
Session III: Innovation and Growth
Chair: Lei Fang, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
9:00 "From 'Made in China' to 'Innovated in China': Necessity, Prospect, and ChallengesAdobe PDF file format
with Shang-Jin Wei and Zhuan Xie
Xiaobo Zhang, Peking University [Presentation Adobe PDF file format]
Discussant: Jing Cai, University of Maryland [Presentation Adobe PDF file format]
9:50 Break
10:10 "From Imitation to Innovation: Where Is All that Chinese R&D Going?"
with Michael König, Zheng Song, and Fabrizio Zilibotti
Kjetil Storesletten, University of Oslo [Presentation Adobe PDF file format]
Discussant: Simon Alder, University of North Carolina [Presentation Adobe PDF file format]
11:00 "China's Rising IQ (Innovation Quotient) and Growth: Firm-Level Evidence"
with Hui He and Jing Fang
Nan Li, International Monetary Fund, Research Department [Presentation Adobe PDF file format]
Discussant: Daniel Xu, Duke University[Presentation Adobe PDF file format]
11:50 Open floor for general discussion
12:10

Lunch presentation
China's Footprints on the Global Economy
Shaghil Ahmed, Associate Director, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System [Presentation Adobe PDF file format]
(30-minute talk and 10-minute Q&A's)

Session IV: Local Government Debt and Financial Risk
Chair: Kris Gerardi, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
1:20 "The Speculation Channel and Crowding Out Channel: Real Estate Shocks and Corporate Investment in China" Adobe PDF file format
with Ting Chen, Laura Liu, and Li-An Zhou
Wei Xiong, Princeton University [Presentation Adobe PDF file format]
Discussant: Andrew MacKinlay, Virginia Tech [Presentation Adobe PDF file format]
2:10 "The Financing of Local Government in China: Stimulus Loan Wanes and Shadow Banking Waxes"
with Zhuo Chen and Chun Liu
Zhiguo He, University of Chicago Booth [Presentation Adobe PDF file format]
Discussant: Jennifer Carpenter, New York University [Presentation Adobe PDF file format]
3:00 Break
3:15 "The Great Wall of Debt: Real Estate, Corruption, and Chinese Local Government Credit Spreads"
with Andrew Ang and Hao Zhou
Jennie Bai, Georgetown University [Presentation Adobe PDF file format]
Discussant: Yongxiang Wang, University of Southern California [Presentation Adobe PDF file format]
4:05 Open floor for general discussion
Adjournment