D6 Factor - April 2008

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D6 Factor
D6 Factor
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Data and Analysis

D6 Factor

April 2008

In January 2008 the D6 Factor was –3.66 percent on a year-over-year basis. (The historical trend growth rate is normalized to zero in the chart.) This reading is similar to last month's, which was revised down from –3.11 percent to –3.62 percent.

The current reading is a little more than halfway between the readings of the D6 Factor at the start of the last recession in March 2001 and the series low at the end of that recession in November 2001. Extraordinarily high readings of Louisiana housing starts and permits in December 2006 made the year-over-year comparisons in December 2007 look quite bleak. If Louisiana housing data are removed, the latest reading of the estimated factor is noticeably further from its low. With or without that housing data, it is clear that the D6 Factor has fallen sharply since early 2006.