GDPNow Forecast for First Quarter Rises

GDPNow Forecast for First Quarter Rises

On February 12, the GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2016 is 2.7 percent. View GDPNow for more details.
Read more
The Role of Commodity Prices in Forecasting U.S. Core Inflation

The Role of Commodity Prices in Forecasting U.S. Core Inflation

Nikolay Gospodinov
Working Paper 2016-5 (February)
The author examines the ability of an aggregator of three commodity futures prices to forecast U.S. core inflation. He finds the predictive power of these convenience yields for future inflation to be significant.

Read more
Uninsured Risk, Stagnation, and Fiscal Policy

Uninsured Risk, Stagnation, and Fiscal Policy

R. Anton Braun and Tomoyuki Nakajima
Working Paper 2016-4 (February)
Wealth inequality is rising in Japan. How should fiscal policy respond? The authors find that lowering the tax rate on capital reduces wealth inequality. This same policy increases economic activity and improves welfare.

Read more
UPDATES & OTHER NEWS