Economic & Financial Highlights tracks data from a number of series.

2015

Mar 05, 2015

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Expectations

The Conference Board's measure of expectations fell to 87.2 in February from 97.0 in January. The University of Michigan's index fell to 88.0 in February from 91.0 in January.

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Expectations

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Mar 05, 2015

Contributions to Real GDP Growth

According to the second estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the fourth quarter of 2014, real GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 2.2 percent, a slower rate then the initial GDP reading of 2.6 percent. Downward revisions were made to private inventory investment, consumer spending, residential investment, and net exports. Nonresidential structures, nonresidential equipment and software, government, and intellectual property products were revised upward. Much of the growth was attributed to contributions from consumer spending, which contributed 2.83 points.

Contributions to Real GDP Growth, quarterly, percent, seasonally adjusted annualized rate

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Mar 05, 2015

Personal Saving Rate and Real Disposable Personal Income

The personal saving rate rose to 5.5 percent in January from an upwardly revised 5.0 percent in December, marking the highest savings rate since December 2012. Real disposable income rose 4.2 percent in January from an upwardly revised 3.8 percent in December, year over year.

Personal Saving Rate (percent) and Real Disposable Personal Income (year-over-year percent change)

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Mar 05, 2015

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Current Situation

The Conference Board's survey on current conditions fell to 110.2 in February from 113.9 in January. The University of Michigan's index fell to 106.9 in February from 109.3 in January.

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Current Situation

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Mar 05, 2015

PCE Price Index

The headline personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose 0.2 percent year over year in January, down markedly from its December pace of 0.8 percent year over year. Core PCE price inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 1.3 percent year over year in January, the same number as December. At a one-month annualized rate, PCE headline inflation fell 5.3 percent in January, a further decrease from December's fall of 2.7, and the core figure (one-month annualized rate) rose 0.7 percent, up from 0.1 percent in December.

PCE Price Index, year-over-year percent change, monthly

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Mar 05, 2015

PCE Price Index Components

Among the PCE price index components, year over year, the nondurable goods subindex was down 3.7 percent in January, a further decline from December's fall of 1.4 percent and below the 12-month average of 0.3 percent. The durable goods subindex was down 2.8 percent year over year in January, from the 2.7 percent decline in December, and consistent with the long-term deflationary trend in the durable goods market. The services subindex rose 2.0 percent year over year. Services, which account for nearly two thirds of personal expenditures, have experienced relatively stable inflation of around 2 percent since 2010, down from the prerecession rate of a little more than 3 percent.

PCE Price Index Components, year-over-year percent change, monthly

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Mar 05, 2015

Contributions from Federal and State & Local Government to GDP Growth

Government spending subtracted 0.32 percentage points from fourth quarter real GDP growth. State and local consumption and investment contributed 0.22 percentage points to the annualized growth rate, and federal consumption and investment subtracted 0.54 percentage points.

Contributions from Federal and State & Local Government to GDP Growth, percent, quarterly

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Mar 05, 2015

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index declined slightly in February compared to the previous month, falling 0.6 points to 52.9. However, the index remained above the 50.0 threshold for expansion for the 26th consecutive month. The new orders, production, and employment subindexes all registered declines, and the supplier delivery times and inventories subindexes rose slightly. Survey respondents continued to cite the West Coast port slowdown as having a negative impact on their business activity. The prices paid subindex was unchanged at 35.0, which continues to indicate decreasing price pressures.

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), seasonally adjusted, index, 50 or greater indicates expansion, less than 50 indicates contraction

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Mar 05, 2015

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) grew 0.3 percent in January after falling 0.1 percent in December, month over month. Durable goods rose 0.2 percent in January after falling 1.0 percent in December, and nondurable goods also rose 0.2 percent in January following a fall of 0.2 percent in December, month over month. Real PCE, year over year, grew 3.4 percent, its highest pace since October 2006.

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, seasonally adjusted, year-over-year percent change

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Mar 04, 2015

Federal Reserve Liabilities (Sources of Funds)

As of February 25, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet showed total liabilities of $4.5 trillion, reflecting a decrease of $13.5 billion since the last week of January. Banks' reserve balances decreased by $315.6 billion. Other Liabilities increased by $256.3 billion. Reverse repurchase agreements and currency in circulation increased by $24.7 billion and $21.1 billion, respectively.

Federal Reserve Liabilities (Sources of Funds), $ billions

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Mar 04, 2015

Federal Reserve Assets (Uses of Funds)

As of February 25, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet showed total assets of $4.5 trillion, reflecting a decrease of $13.5 billion since the last week of January. Other assets decreased by $12.7 billion. Treasuries decreased by $637 million and Agency debt and MBS decreased by $159 million.

Federal Reserve Assets (Uses of Funds), $ billions

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Mar 02, 2015

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

In the week ending February 21, initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 313,000—the biggest jump since December 2013—and an increase of 31,000 from the previous week's downwardly revised level of 282,000 (from 283,000). The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, also rose to 295,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 283,000. Despite increases in these figures, the overall trend in claims data continues to point to a strengthening labor market.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted, thousands

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Mar 02, 2015

Core Capital Goods

New orders for core capital goods (nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft) rose 0.6 percent in January over December, following a 0.7 percent decline in the previous month. Shipments fell 0.3 percent compared with the previous month, after rising 0.3 percent in December. In January, the three-month-over-three-month annualized growth rate was -9.0 percent for new orders. Although year-over-year growth for orders strengthened in January, the negative three-month-over-three-month annualized growth rate suggests that business investment in equipment got off to a sluggish start in 2015.

Core Capital Goods, year-over-year percent change, seasonally adjusted

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Mar 02, 2015

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Headline consumer prices fell 0.1 percent year over year in January, down from the 0.8 percent increase in December, the first negative year-over-year change since October 2009. Declines in the energy commodities subindex (made up of gasoline and fuel oil) were responsible for much of the deceleration in the headline number. On a one-month basis, the headline consumer price index declined at a 7.9 percent annualized rate, the third consecutive one-month decline. The energy commodities subindex fell 90.73 percent on a one-month annualized basis in December, marking the seventh consecutive monthly decline. The core measure, which excludes food and energy, was up 1.6 percent year over year, matching December's measure.

Consumer Price Index (CPI), year-over-year percent change

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Feb 26, 2015

U.S. House Prices

U.S. house prices increased 4 to 5 percent in December on a year-over-year basis.

U.S. House Prices monthly index, year-over-year percent change

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Feb 26, 2015

U.S. Single-Family Home Sales

New single-family home sales increased 5.3 percent from the year-ago level, and existing single-family home sales increased 3.9 percent during the same period.

U.S. Single-Family Home Sales year-over-year percent change, monthly

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Feb 26, 2015

Sales and Months' Supply of Existing Single-Family Homes

Existing single-family home sales fell 5.1 percent month over month, from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.5 million in December to 4.27 million in January. The months' supply of available existing homes for sale rose from 4.7 months in January from 4.4 months in December.

Sales and Months' Supply of Existing Single-Family Homes

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Feb 26, 2015

Sales and Months' Supply of New Single-Family Homes

New single-family home sales slowed on a month-over-month basis, falling 0.2 percent from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 482,000 in December to 481,000 in January. The months' supply of available new single-family homes remained unchanged at 5.4 months January.

Sales and Months' Supply of New Single-Family Homes

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Feb 20, 2015

Industrial Production

In January, total industrial production (IP) rose a modest 0.2 percent compared with December. Manufacturing output increased 0.2 percent over the previous month. December's growth was revised down from a 0.3 percent gain to no change. Following a return to more normal temperature levels in January, utilities output increased 2.3 percent over December, which had experienced unusually warm weather. Mining output fell 1.0 percent compared with the previous month, reflecting a sharp dropoff in the drilling of oil and gas wells, which declined 10 percent in January. Total IP increased 4.8 percent year over year.

Industrial Production, year-over-year percent change

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Feb 20, 2015

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

In the week ending February 14, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 283,000, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 304,000. The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, also fell to 283,000—the lowest level since early November—from the previous week's unrevised level of 290,000. The trend in claims data continues to point to a strengthening labor market.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted, thousands

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Feb 19, 2015

Housing Starts

Total housing starts fell 2.2 percent from December 2014 to January 2015. Single-family starts fell 6.7 percent during the same period. On a year-over-year basis, total housing starts jumped 18.7 percent, and single-family starts increased 16.3 percent.

Housing Starts, monthly, SAAR, thousand units

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Feb 17, 2015

Retail Sales

Total retail sales fell 0.8 percent in January following December's decline of 0.9 percent. Core retail sales, excluding auto, gas, and building materials, rose 0.2 percent in January after a 0.1 percent decline in December, month over month. Year over year, total retail sales rose 3.3 percent, the same pace as December.

Retail Sales; year-over-year percent change, seasonally adjusted

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Feb 11, 2015

Change in Consumer Credit Outstanding

Consumer credit outstanding rose $14.8 billion in December following November's downward revision to $13.5 billion. Nonrevolving credit rose $9.0 billion as a result of auto and student loans. However, revolving credit rose a significant $5.8 billion in December from November's decline of $0.9 billion, its strongest growth since April 2014.

Change in Consumer Credit Outstanding billion dollars, seasonally
 adjusted, monthly changes 

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Feb 06, 2015

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

In the week ending January 31, initial claims for unemployment insurance was 278,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's upwardly revised level of 267,000 (from 265,000). The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, declined to 293,000 from the previous week's revised level of 299,000. Claims remain near historic lows and continue to point to a strengthening labor market.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted, thousands

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Feb 06, 2015

Commodity Price Index - All Commodities

The Commodity Research Bureau's all commodities price index fell 3.7 percent month over month in January 2015. Contributing to the reduction were decreases in the indexes for livestock (such as cattle and hogs), metals (such as copper, lead, and steel) and foodstuffs (such as sugar, corn, and butter). Since January 2014, the all commodities price index is down 6.2 percent, with the indices for livestock decreasing 3.5 percent, foodstuffs decreasing 3.2 percent, and metals falling 12.7 percent. The all commodities index continues to be well below its April 2011 peak level of 575.7.

Commodity Price Index - All Commodities, monthly average, indexed 1967=100

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Feb 06, 2015

Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates

The unemployment rate ticked up slightly by 0.1 percentage point to 5.7 percent in January, remaining at a relatively low level. The labor force participation rate edged up by 0.2 percentage point to 62.9 percent in January, essentially unchanged since July 2014.

Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates monthly, percent, seasonally adjusted

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Feb 06, 2015

Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 257,000 in January, including annual benchmark revisions. Monthly job gains, which include November and December revisions, averaged 336,000 over the past three months. Job gains were widespread, led by growth in goods-producing sectors (up 58,000, with construction adding 39,000, manufacturing adding 22,000, and mining subtracting 3,000), retail trade (up 46,000), education and health care (up 38,000), professional and business services (up 39,000), and leisure and hospitality (up 37,000).

Revisions to the previous two months’ estimates added 147,000 payrolls, on net. November was revised up from 353,000 to 423,000, and December was revised up from 252,000 to 329,000.

Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment
thousands, SA

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Feb 03, 2015

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index fell 1.6 points in January compared with December but remained above the 50.0 threshold for expansion at 53.5. Most of the subindexes decreased from the previous months' readings. Although still indicating expansion, the new orders subindex fell 4.9 points, and the production subindex decreased 1.2 points. Despite falling 1.9 points from December, the employment subindex remained in expansionary territory, indicating growth in manufacturing payrolls for the 19th consecutive month. According to the ISM report, 14 of 18 manufacturing industries surveyed reported growth in January. Several anonymous comments by ISM survey participants suggested that the West Coast port slowdown was hampering their business activity.

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI): seasonally adjusted, index, 50 or greater indicates expansion, less than 50 indicates contraction

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Feb 03, 2015

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

The economic policy uncertainty index increased 33 points to 115 in January, up from 82 points in December.

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

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Feb 03, 2015

PCE Price Index Components

Among the PCE price index components, year over year, the nondurable goods subindex was down 1.6 percent in December, from November's decline of 0.02 percent and below the 12-month average of 0.6 percent. The durable goods subindex was down 2.8 percent year over year in December, one-tenth of a percentage point down from November's pace, and consistent with the long-term deflationary trend in the durable goods market. The services subindex rose 2.1 percent year over year. Services, which account for nearly two thirds of personal expenditures, have experienced relatively stable inflation of around 2 percent since 2010, down from a little over 3 percent prerecession.

PCE Price Index Components, year-over-year percent change, monthly

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Feb 03, 2015

PCE Price Index

The headline personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose 0.7 percent year over year in December, down from its November pace of 1.2 percent year over year. Core PCE price inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 1.3 percent year over year in December, a one-tenth of a percentage point decrease from November. At a one-month annualized rate, PCE headline inflation fell 2.8 percent in December, a further decrease from November's decline of 2.0, and the core figure rose 0.1 percent, down from 0.2 percent in November. Recent PCE price index data suggest inflationary pressures remain at bay.

PCE Price Index, year-over-year percent change, monthly

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Feb 03, 2015

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Current Situation

The Conference Board's survey on current conditions rose significantly, to a seven-year high of 112.6 in January from a revised reading of 99.9 in December. The University of Michigan's index rose to 109.3 in January from 104.8 in December.

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Current Situation

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Feb 03, 2015

Federal Reserve Liabilities (Sources of Funds)

As of January 28, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet showed total liabilities of $4.5 trillion, reflecting a decrease of $2.5 billion since the last week of December. Banks' reserve balances decreased by $284.6 billion, while reverse repurchase agreements increased by $228.3 billion. Other liabilities increased by $40.8 billion.

Federal Reserve Liabilities (Sources of Funds), $ billions

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Feb 03, 2015

Federal Reserve Assets (Uses of Funds)

As of January 28, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet showed total assets of $4.5 trillion, reflecting a decrease of $2.5 billion since the last week of December. Other assets decreased by $4.9 billion, and Treasuries increased by $560 million. Agency debt and MBS increased by $206 million.

Federal Reserve Assets (Uses of Funds), $ billions

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Feb 03, 2015

Contributions from Federal and State & Local Government to GDP Growth

Government spending subtracted 0.40 percentage points from fourth quarter real GDP growth. State and local consumption and investment contributed 0.14 percentage points to the annualized growth rate, and federal consumption and investment subtracted 0.54 percentage points.

Contributions from Federal and State & Local Government to GDP Growth, percent, quarterly

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Feb 03, 2015

Contributions to Real GDP Growth

According to the advance estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the fourth quarter of 2014, real GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 2.6 percent. Much of the growth was attributed to contributions from consumer spending and private inventory investment, which contributed 2.9 and 0.8 percentage points to the quarter's growth, respectively. The deceleration in GDP growth, from 5.0 percent in the third quarter, primarily reflected an upturn in imports and downturn in government spending.

Contributions to Real GDP Growth, quarterly, percent, seasonally adjusted annualized rate

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Feb 03, 2015

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Expectations

The Conference Board's measure of expectations rose moderately to 96.4 in January from 88.5 in December. The University of Michigan's index rose to 91.0 in January from 86.4 in December.

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Expectations

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Jan 29, 2015

Core Capital Goods

In December, new orders for core capital goods (nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft) fell 0.6 percent compared with the previous month. November new orders were also revised down to a 0.6 percent decrease from a 0.1 percent decrease. Shipments for core capital goods also fell, decreasing 0.2 percent from November to December. Like new orders, shipments were revised downward for November to a 0.6 percent decrease from a 0.2 percent rise. The weak incoming data indicate that growth in business investment in equipment softened in the fourth quarter and suggest only modest growth over the near term. The December year-over-year growth rate for shipments fell to its lowest level since February 2014, and the annual growth rate for orders ticked up slightly from November.

Core Capital Goods, year-over-year percent change, seasonally adjusted

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Jan 28, 2015

U.S. House Prices

U.S. house prices increased 4 to 6 percent in November on a year-over-year basis.

U.S. House Prices, monthly index, year-over-year percent change

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Jan 28, 2015

Sales and Months' Supply of New Single-Family Homes

New single-family home sales rose on a month-over-month basis, increasing 11.6 percent from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 431,000 in November to 481,000 in December. The months' supply of available new single-family homes fell from 6.0 months in November to 5.5 months in December.

Sales and Months' Supply of New Single-Family Homes

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Jan 28, 2015

U.S. Single-Family Home Sales

New single-family home sales increased 8.8 percent from the year-ago level, and existing single-family home sales increased 4.0 percent during the same period.

U.S. Single-Family Home Sales, year-over-year percent change, monthly

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Jan 28, 2015

Federal Reserve Liabilities (Sources of Funds)

As of December 31, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet showed total liabilities of $4.5 trillion, reflecting a decrease of $11.9 billion since the last week of November. Reverse repurchase agreements decreased by $258.4 billion and currency in circulation decreased by $25.6 billion. Other liabilities increased by $171.0 billion, while banks' reserve balances increased by $101.3 billion.

Federal Reserve Liabilities (Sources of Funds), $ billions

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Jan 28, 2015

Federal Reserve Assets (Uses of Funds)

As of December 31, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet showed total assets of $4.5 trillion, reflecting a decrease of $11.9 billion since the last week of November. Agency debt and MBS decreased by $5.9 billion, and other assets decreased by $4.7 billion. Agency MBS was the leading contributor in this category, decreasing by $7.0 billion.

Federal Reserve Assets (Uses of Funds), $ billions

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Jan 28, 2015

Sales and Months' Supply of Existing Single-Family Homes

Existing single-family home sales increased 3.5 percent month over month, from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.320 million in November to 4.470 million in December. The months' supply of available existing homes for sale fell to 4.4 months in December from 5.1 months in November.

Sales and Months' Supply of Existing Single-Family Homes

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Jan 26, 2015

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

In the week ending January 17, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 307,000 from the previous week's upwardly revised level of 317,000 (from 316,000). The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, rose to 307,000—the highest since mid-July—from the previous week's upwardly revised level of 300,000 (from 298,000). Despite churn in the data during the December-to-January survey periods, including the four-week moving average rising by 7,000, the trend in claims data continues to point to a strengthening labor market.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted, thousands

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Jan 22, 2015

Housing Starts

Total starts increased 4.4 percent from November to December. Single-family starts increased by 7.2 percent during the same period. On a year-over-year basis, total starts rose by 5.3 percent, and single-family starts increased 7.9 percent.

Housing Starts, monthly, SAAR, thousand units

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Jan 20, 2015

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Headline consumer prices were up 0.8 percent year over year in December, down from 1.3 percent in November. Declines in the energy commodities subindex (made up of gasoline and fuel oil) were responsible for much of the deceleration in the headline number since midyear. The energy commodities subindex fell 68.3 percent on a one-month annualized basis in December, marking the sixth consecutive monthly decline. The core measure, which excludes food and energy, was up 1.6 percent year over year, down from November's measure of 1.7 percent.

Consumer Price Index (CPI), year-over-year percent change

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Jan 16, 2015

Retail Sales

Total retail sales fell 0.9 percent in December following November's downward revision to 0.4 percent. Core retail sales—excluding auto, gas, and building materials—fell 0.2 percent in December with November's data revised down to 0.5 percent, month over month. Year over year, total retail sales rose 3.2 percent, its slowest pace since February 2014.

Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates, monthly, percent, seasonally adjusted

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Jan 16, 2015

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

In the week ending January 10, initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped to 316,000 from the previous week's upwardly revised level of 297,000 (from 294,000). This is the highest level of initial unemployment claims in four months. However, the four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, was 298,000 and has remained below 300,000 for 18 straight weeks, a sign of a strengthening labor market.

Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates, monthly, percent, seasonally adjusted

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Jan 15, 2015

Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates

The unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage point to 5.6 percent in December, remaining at its lowest level since mid-2008. During the last 12 months, the unemployment rate declined 1.1 percentage points. The labor force participation rate edged down by 0.2 percentage point to 62.7 percent in December, essentially unchanged since April.

Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates, monthly, percent, seasonally adjusted

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Jan 15, 2015

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

In the week ending January 3, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 294,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 298,000. The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, held at 291,000 from the previous week. The four-week moving average has remained below 300,000 for 17 straight weeks, a continued sign of a strengthening labor market. The last time they were consistently below the 300,000 level was in 2006.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted, thousands

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Jan 15, 2015

Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Nonfarm payrolls rose by a net 252,000 in December, averaging 246,000 per month in 2014—the strongest year of job growth in 15 years. Job gains were widespread, led by growth in goods-producing (up 67,000, with 48,000 from construction and 17,000 from manufacturing), professional and business services (up 52,000), and education and health services (up 48,000, with 34,000 from health care) sectors. The leisure and hospitality sector was up 36,000 jobs, with food services and drinking places adding 44,000 payrolls and arts, entertainment, and recreation subtracting 7,400 payrolls.

Revisions to the previous two months' estimates added 50,000 jobs on net. October was revised up from a gain of 243,000 payrolls to a gain of 261,000, and November was revised up from a gain of 321,000 to 353,000.

Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment, thousands, SA

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Jan 14, 2015

Change in Consumer Credit Outstanding

Consumer credit outstanding rose $14.1 billion in November with October's data being revised upward from $13.2 billion to $16.0 billion. Nonrevolving credit led the growth with a strong gain of $15.0 billion as a result of auto and student loans, and revolving credit declined $0.9 billion for the second time in the last four months.

Change in Consumer Credit Outstanding, billion dollars, seasonally adjusted, monthly changes

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Jan 08, 2015

Contributions from Federal and State & Local Government to GDP Growth

Government spending contributed 0.8 percentage points to third quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Of the government figure, federal consumption and investment was responsible for contributing 0.68 percentage points, representing the largest percentage point contribution from that sector since the second quarter of 2010. State and local spending contributed 0.13 percentage points.

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Jan 08, 2015

Contributions to Real GDP Growth

According to the third estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the third quarter of 2014, real GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 5.0 percent, a faster rate than the second GDP reading of 3.9 percent and the advance GDP reading of 3.5 percent. Upward revisions were made to consumer spending and nonresidential equipment and software, and net exports were revised downward. Much of the growth was attributed to contributions from consumer spending.

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Jan 07, 2015

Commodity Price Index--All Commodities

The Commodity Research Bureau's all commodities price index fell 2.2 percent month over month in December 2014. Contributing to the reduction were decreases in the indices for livestock (such as cattle and hogs), metals (such as copper, lead, and steel) and foodstuffs (such as sugar, corn, and butter). Since January 2014, the all commodities price index is down 2.5 percent, with the indices for livestock increasing 5.6 percent, foodstuffs rising 2.4 percent, and metals falling 9.6 percent. The all commodities index continues to be well below its April 2011 peak level of 575.7.

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Jan 07, 2015

The View from the Fed: Summary of Economic Projections (Change in real GDP)

The December Summary of Economic Projections for 2014 gross domestic product (GDP) growth showed an increase by 0.3 percentage point at the lower bound and 0.2 percentage points at the upper bound of the central tendency from the September projection. The central tendency of the long-term projection remained the same as the September projection, at 2.0 to 2.3 percent.

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Jan 07, 2015

The View from the Fed: The Summary of Economic Projections (PCE Inflation)

The December Summary of Economic Projections for 2014 personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation decreased at the lower and upper bound of the central tendency from the September projection by 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively. The 2015 projection decreased at the lower bound and upper bound of the central tendency, and the 2016 and 2017 projections remained the same. The long-term central tendency projection remained unchanged from the September projection of 2.0 percent.

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Jan 07, 2015

PCE Price Index

The headline personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose 1.2 percent year over year in November, down from its October pace of 1.4 percent year over year. Core PCE price inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 1.4 percent year over year in November, a one-tenth of a percentage point decrease from October. At a one-month annualized rate, PCE headline inflation fell 2.0 percent in November, down from a 0.6 percent increase, and the core figure rose 0.1 percent, down from 2.0 percent in October. Recent PCE price index data suggest inflationary pressures remain at bay.

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Jan 07, 2015

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

In December, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index fell 3.2 points compared to November to 55.5. The new orders subindex decreased 8.7 points but still remained solidly in expansionary territory at 57.3. The production subindex fell 5.6 points compared to November but, like new orders, still pointed to continued increase in activity with a reading of 58.8. The employment subindex indicated manufacturing employment growth for the 18th consecutive month and increased 1.9 points compared to the previous month. The prices paid subindex fell 6.0 points to 38.5, its lowest reading since June 2012, suggesting that input price pressures are decreasing.

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Jan 07, 2015

The View from the Fed: Summary of Economic Projections (Unemployment Rate)

The December Summary of Economic Projections for the unemployment rate was 5.8 percent for the central tendency of the 2014 projection. The central tendency of the 2015 projection decreased by 0.2 percentage point at the lower bound and 0.3 percentage points at the upper bound from the September projections. The upper and lower bounds of the 2016 central tendency projection decreased slightly, and the upper and lower bounds of the 2017 central tendency projection remained unchanged. The long-run projection remained unchanged at both the upper and lower bounds of the central tendency.

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Jan 07, 2015

Personal Saving Rate (percent) and Real Disposable Personal Income (year-over-year percent change)

In November, the personal saving rate fell to 4.4 percent from 4.6 percent in October. The saving rate has been below 5.0 percent for the past four consecutive months.

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Jan 07, 2015

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

Real personal consumption grew 0.7 percent in November, a strong month-over-month increase from October’s 0.2 percent. Durable goods led the growth, rising 2.3 percent from October’s revised 0.4 percent. Nondurable goods also rebounded in November with month-over-montgrowth of 1.0 percent from 0.1 percent in October. Real PCE growth, year over year, was 2.8 percent.

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Jan 07, 2015

PCE Price Index Components

Among the PCE price index components, year over year, the nondurable goods subindex was down 0.1 percent in November, from October’s 0.8 percent pace and below the 12-month average of 0.8 percent. The durable goods subindex was down 2.6 percent year over year in November, four-tenths of a percentage point down from October’s pace and consistent with the long-term deflationary trend in the durable goods market. The services subindex rose 2.2 percent year over year. Services, which account for nearly two thirds of personal expenditures, have experienced relatively stable inflation of around 2 percent since 2010, down from a little more than 3 percent before the last recession.

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Jan 07, 2015

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Expectations

The Conference Board's measure of expectations fell to 88.5 in December from an upwardly revised 89.3 in November. The University of Michigan's index rose modestly to 86.4 in December from 79.9 in November.

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Jan 07, 2015

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Current Situation

The Conference Board's survey on current conditions rose to 98.6 in December from a revised reading in November of 93.7, the highest it has been since February 2008. The University of Michigan's index rose to 104.8 in December from 102.7 in November.

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Jan 02, 2015

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

In the week ending December 27, initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 298,000 from the previous week's upwardly revised level of 281,000 (from 280,000). Although the number of claims increased, they remained near postrecession lows. The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, increased slightly to 291,000 from 290,000 the previous week. Initial claims fell below the 300,000 level in late July and have held there fairly steadily since then. The last time they were consistently below the 300,000 level was in 2006.

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