Economic & Financial Highlights tracks data from a number of series.

2015

Jul 03, 2015

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

In June, the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index rose slightly to 53.5 from May's reading of 52.8. The modest rise was led by increases in the new orders, employment, and inventories subindexes. The employment subindex registered the largest gain, rising to a six month high of 55.5. The supplier delivery times subindex fell 1.9 points to 48.8, indicating that deliveries for inputs were faster than the previous month. Although the production component of the index fell slightly, it remained in expansionary territory for the 34th consecutive month. Overall, the survey results suggest that the manufacturing sector's conditions are starting to improve somewhat.

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

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Jul 03, 2015

Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates

The U-3 civilian unemployment rate ticked down to 5.3 percent in June—the lowest since April 2008—reflecting a 432,000 decline in the size of the labor force that outpaced a 56,000 decrease in civilian employment. The broader U-6 measure, which includes persons marginally attached to the labor force and persons part-time for economic reasons, fell to 10.5 percent in June from 10.8 percent in May. The labor force participation rate declined by 0.3 percentage point to 62.6 percent in June—the lowest rate since 1977.

Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates (monthly, percent, seasonally adjusted)

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Jul 03, 2015

Payroll Employment Changes

In June, total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223,000—the 15th time in the past 16 months the figure has been over 200,000—the best run of that length and magnitude since the mid-1990s. Monthly job gains averaged 245,000 over the past 12 months.

Payroll Employment Changes (seasonally adjusted, thousands of jobs)

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Jul 03, 2015

Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Job gains were led by growth in professional and business services (+64,000; largely in temporary help services (+20,000)); health care (+40,000); retail (+33,000); and food services and drinking places (+30,000). With revisions to the previous two months' estimates, employment gains in April and May combined were 60,000 lower than previously reported; April was revised from +221,000 to +187,000, and the change for May was revised from +280,000 to +254,000.

Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment

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Jul 03, 2015

Average Hourly Earnings

Average hourly earnings were flat in June at $24.95, and the annual growth rate fell back to 2.0% from 2.3% in May.

Average

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Jul 02, 2015

Contributions to Real GDP Growth

According to the third estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first quarter of 2015, real GDP decreased at an annualized rate of 0.2 percent following a 2.2 percent increase in the fourth quarter of 2014. Much of the decrease was attributed to negative contributions from net exports, nonresidential fixed investment in structures, and state and local government spending which contributed to declines of 1.9, 0.6, and 0.1 percentage points, respectively.

Contributions to Real GDP Growth, quarterly, percent, seasonally adjusted annualized rate

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Jul 02, 2015

Federal Reserve Assets (Uses of Funds)

As of June 24, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet showed total assets of $4.5 trillion, reflecting an increase of $31.5 billion since the last week of May. Agency debt and MBS increased by $23.4 billion, and other assets increased by $7.6 billion.

Federal Reserve Assets (Uses of Funds), $ billions

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Jul 02, 2015

Federal Reserve Liabilities (Sources of Funds)

As of June 24, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet showed total liabilities of $4.5 trillion, reflecting an increase of $31.5 billion since the last week of May. Other Liabilities increased by $68.5 billion, and Reverse Repurchase Agreements increased by $10.8 billion. Banks' reserve balances decreased by $43.4 billion.

Federal Reserve Liabilities (Sources of Funds), $ billions

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Jul 02, 2015

U.S. House Prices

U.S. house prices increased between 4 percent and 6 percent in April on a year-over-year basis.

U.S. House Prices, monthly index, year-over-year percent change

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Jun 30, 2015

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims

In the week ending June 20, initial claims for unemployment insurance ticked up to 271,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week. The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, fell to 274,000, a decline of 3,000 from the previous week. Claims remain near historically low levels and have stayed below 300,000 for 16 straight weeks, the longest such streak since 2000.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims, four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted, thousands

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Jun 25, 2015

U.S. Single-Family Home Sales

New single-family home sales increased 19.5 percent from the year-ago level, and existing single-family home sales increased 9.7 percent during the same period.

U.S. Single-Family Home Sales, year-over-year percent change, monthly

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Jun 25, 2015

Sales and Months' Supply of Existing Single-Family Homes

Existing single-family home sales increased 5.6 percent month over month, from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.480 million in April to 4.730 million in May. The months' supply of available existing homes for sale fell to 5.2 months in May from 5.3 months in April.

Sales and Months' Supply of Existing Single-Family Homes

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Jun 25, 2015

Sales and Months' Supply of New Single-Family Homes

New single-family home sales increased 2.2 percent on a month-over-month basis, from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 534,000 in April to 546,000 in May. The months' supply of available new single-family homes declined from 4.6 months in April to 4.5 months in May.

Sales and Months' Supply of New Single-Family Homes

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Jun 25, 2015

Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index

The headline personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose 0.2 percent year over year in May, up slightly from April's reading. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 1.2 percent year over year in May, down from 1.3 percent in April. At a one-month annualized rate, the headline PCE price index rose 3.8 percent in May, up from 0.5 percent in April, and the core figure (one-month annualized rate) rose 1.6 percent, up from 1.5 percent in April.

Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, year-over-year percent change, monthly

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Jun 25, 2015

PCE Price Index Components

Among the PCE price index components, year over year, the nondurable goods subindex was down 3.0 percent in May, after April's fall of 3.5 percent. The 12-month average of the nondurable goods subindex was down 1.0 percent. The durable goods subindex was down 1.9 percent year over year in May, following the 2.1 percent decline in April and consistent with the long-term deflationary trend in the durable goods market. The services subindex rose 1.7 percent year over year. Services, which account for nearly two-thirds of personal expenditures, have experienced relatively stable inflation of around 2 percent since 2010, down from a little over 3 percent before the recession.

PCE Price Index Components, year-over-year percent change, monthly

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Jun 22, 2015

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

In the week ending June 13, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 267,000, a decline of 12,000 from the previous week's unrevised level. The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, also fell to 277,000, a decline of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised level. Claims have stayed below 300,000 for 15 straight weeks, the longest streak below that level since the year 2000, a continued sign of a strengthening labor market.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted, thousands

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Jun 22, 2015

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Headline consumer prices were unchanged year over year in May, up from the 0.2 percent decrease in April. The energy commodities subindex (gasoline and fuel oil) rose 199.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted one-month annualized basis in May following a decrease of 20.9 percent in April. This was the largest one-month annualized increase in energy commodities since June 2009. The core measure, which excludes food and energy, was up 1.7 percent year over year, a decrease from the March and April readings of 1.8 percent.

Consumer Price Index (CPI), year-over-year percent change

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Jun 18, 2015

U.S. Housing Starts

Total starts fell 11.1 percent from April to May. Single-family starts also dropped 5.4 percent during the same period. On a year-over-year basis, total housing starts increased 5.1 percent, and single-family starts rose 6.8 percent.

U.S. Housing Starts, monthly, SAAR, thousand units

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Jun 17, 2015

Industrial Production

In May, total industrial production (IP) declined 0.2 percent from the previous month, continuing to indicate sluggish conditions in industrial activity. Following two consecutive monthly increases, manufacturing output fell 0.2 percent from April to May, with varying results across major sectors. Durable goods manufacturing was mixed, with motor vehicles and parts production remaining strong, but almost all nondurable manufacturing industries saw monthly declines. The strong dollar likely continues to hamper manufacturing output. On the heels of continued weakness in oil and gas well drilling, mining production fell 0.3 percent from April to May, the fifth consecutive monthly decrease. Utility production edged up 0.2 percent month over month following a 3.7 percent decline in April. On a year-over-year basis, both total IP and manufacturing production continued to decelerate.

Industrial Production, year-over-year percent change

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Jun 16, 2015

Retail Sales

Total retail sales rose 1.2 percent in May following significant upward revisions to the two prior months.

Retail Sales, year-over-year percent change, seasonally adjusted

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Jun 16, 2015

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

In the week ending June 6, initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 279,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's upwardly revised level. The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, also rose to 279,000, an increase of almost 4,000 from the previous week's upwardly revised level. Claims remain at historically low levels, continuing to signal a strengthening labor market.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted, thousands

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Jun 10, 2015

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

The economic policy uncertainty index decreased 9 points to 100 in May, down from 109 points in April.

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

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Jun 09, 2015

Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Job gains were led by growth in education and health services (up 74,000, with 47,000 from health care), professional and business services (up 63,000, with 20,000 from temporary help services, 10,000 from computer systems design and related services, and 7,000 from management and technical consulting services), and leisure and hospitality (up 57,000, concentrated in arts, entertainment, and recreation with an increase of 29,000). Employment in mining fell for the fifth month in a row, with a decline of 17,000 in May. The loss was in support activities for mining.

Revisions to the previous two months' estimates added 32,000 jobs on net. March was revised up from 85,000 to 119,000, and the change for April was revised down from 223,000 to 221,000.

Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment, thousands, seasonally adjusted

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Jun 09, 2015

Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates

The U3 civilian unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 5.5 percent in April, reflecting a 272,000 increase in civilian employment that was outpaced by a 397,000 increase in the labor force. The broader U6 measure, which includes persons marginally attached to the labor force and persons part-time for economic reasons, held steady at 10.8 percent in April. The labor force participation rate rose to 62.9 percent. Since April 2014, the participation rate has remained within a narrow range of 62.7 percent to 62.9 percent.

Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates, monthly, percent, seasonally adjusted

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Jun 09, 2015

Change in Consumer Credit Outstanding

Consumer credit outstanding continued to be strong as it rose by $20.5 billion in April following an upward revision in March to $21.3 billion. Nonrevolving credit rose by $11.9 billion in April after March’s gain of $16.5 billion. The rise continues to be related to steady demand for auto and student loans. Revolving credit increased significantly in April, rising by $8.6 billion from March's increase of $4.9 billion, which was its largest gain since April 2014.

Change in Consumer Credit Outstanding, billion dollars, seasonally adjusted, monthly changes

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Jun 09, 2015

Payroll Employment Changes

In May, nonfarm payrolls rose by a net 280,000. The 12-month trend in payroll growth rose to 255,000 in May, following two months of declines.

Payroll Employment Changes, seasonally adjusted, thousands of jobs

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Jun 05, 2015

Disposable Personal Income and Personal Saving Rate

The personal saving rate rose to 5.6 percent in April from 5.2 percent in March. Real disposable income rose 3.5 percent in April from 3.2 percent in March, year over year.

Disposable Personal Income and Personal Saving Rate

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Jun 05, 2015

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Current Situation

The Conference Board's survey on current conditions rose to 108.1 in May from 105.1 in April. The University of Michigan's index fell to 100.8 in May from 107.0 in April, its lowest level since October 2014.

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Current Situation

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Jun 05, 2015

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Expectations

The Conference Board's measure of expectations fell to 86.9 in May from 87.1 in April. The University of Michigan's index fell to 84.2 in May from 88.8 in April, its lowest level since November 2014.

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Expectations

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Jun 05, 2015

International Trade

The nominal trade deficit narrowed in April to $40.9 billion from $50.6 billion in March (revised down from $51.4 billion) as exports grew for the second consecutive month and imports fell, reversing about half of their outsized spike in March. Exports' increase of 1.1 percent in April was driven by higher exports of capital goods, mainly civilian aircraft, telecommunications equipment, and other industrial machines. Imports decreased 3.3 percent. Consumer goods, primarily cell phones and other household goods, led the decline. About two-thirds of March's record increase in consumer goods imports was reversed in April.

On a year-over-year basis, exports fell for a fourth consecutive month, and import growth turned negative in April. Both exports and imports were approximately 3 percent lower in April compared with a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, goods exports were up 2 percent, and goods imports were 4 percent higher in April from year-ago levels. On a year-over-year basis, prices of U.S. exports (export price index) were down 6 percent in April, and prices of imported goods (import price index) were almost 11 percent lower.

International Trade

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Jun 02, 2015

Commodity Price Index - All Commodities

The Commodity Research Bureau's all commodities price index rose 2.5 percent month over month in May 2015. The index for livestock (such as cattle and hogs) rose 5.3 percent during this period, and indices for metals (such as copper, lead, and steel) rose 2.1 percent, and foodstuffs (such as sugar, corn, and butter) rose 5.1 percent. Since May 2014, the all commodities price index is down 15.0 percent, with the indices for livestock decreasing 24.9 percent, foodstuffs decreasing 17.5 percent, and metals falling 18.4 percent. The all commodities index continues to be well below its April 2011 peak level of 575.7.

Commodity Price Index – All Commodities, monthly average, indexed 1967=100

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Jun 02, 2015

Federal Reserve Assets (Uses of Funds)

As of May 27, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet showed total assets of $4.5 trillion, reflecting a decrease of $7.7 billion since the last week of April. Other assets decreased by $10.8 billion, and Agency debt and MBS increased by $2.5 billion, the increase largely attributable to an increase of $3.6 billion in Agency MBS.

Federal Reserve Assets (Uses of Funds)

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Jun 02, 2015

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index rose in May to 52.8, a 1.3 point improvement over April. The ISM index has now indicated expansion in the manufacturing sector for 29 consecutive months. The new orders subindex reached a five-month high of 55.8, a 2.3 point increase over the previous month. The employment subindex rebounded to 51.7 from April's 48.3, indicating that manufacturing payrolls were increasing in May. The new export orders subindex continued on a declining trend during the month, suggesting that the strong dollar is affecting international demand for U.S. goods. According to the ISM report, 14 of 18 industries reported expansion during the month of May, and two industries (textile mills and computer and electronic products) reported contraction.

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), seasonally adjusted, index, 50 or greater indicates expansion, less than 50 indicates contraction

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Jun 02, 2015

Federal Reserve Liabilities (Sources of Funds)

As of May 27, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet showed total liabilities of $4.5 trillion, reflecting a decrease of $7.7 billion since the last week of April. Banks' reserve balances decreased by $44.1 billion, and reverse repurchase agreements increased by $28.8 billion. Currency in circulation increased by $9.0 billion.

Federal Reserve Assets (Sources of Funds)

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Jun 01, 2015

Contributions to Real GDP Growth

According to the second estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first quarter of 2015, real GDP decreased at an annualized rate of 0.7 percent following a 2.2 percent increase in the fourth quarter of 2014. Much of the decrease was attributed to negative contributions from net exports, nonresidential fixed investment in structures, and state and local government spending. These factors contributed -1.9, -0.7, and -0.2 percentage points, respectively.

Contributions to Real GDP Growth

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Jun 01, 2015

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

In the week ending May 23, initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 282,000, up 7,000 from the previous week's upwardly revised level. The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, also rose to 272,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's upwardly revised level. Although both measures rose, they remain near historically low levels and are consistent with an economy that is adding jobs.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted, thousands

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May 27, 2015

U.S. House Prices

U.S. house prices increased between 5 percent and 6 percent in March on a year-over-year basis.

U.S. House Prices, monthly index, year-over-year percent change

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May 27, 2015

U.S. Single-Family Home Sales

New single-family home sales increased 26.1 percent from the year-ago level, while existing single-family home sales increased 6.5 percent during the same period.

U.S. Single-Family Home Sales, year-over-year percent change, monthly

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May 27, 2015

Sales and Months' Supply of Existing Single-Family Homes

Existing single-family home sales declined 3.7 percent month over month, from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4,600,000 in March to 4,430,000 in April. The months’ supply of available existing homes for sale increased from 4.6 months in March to 5.3 months in April.

Sales and Months' Supply of Existing Single-Family Homes

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May 27, 2015

Sales and Months' Supply of New Single-Family Homes

New single-family home sales increased 6.8 percent on a month-over-month basis, from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 484,000 in March to 517,000 in April. The months’ supply of available new single-family homes declined from 5.1 months in March to 4.8 months in April.

Sales and Months' Supply of New Single-Family Homes

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May 22, 2015

Unemployment Insurance Weekly

In the week ending May 16, initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 274,000, up 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level. However, the four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, fell to 266,000—its lowest level in 15 years—and a decline of 6,000 from the previous week's unrevised level. Claims remain at historically low levels, consistent with an improving labor market.

Housing Starts, monthly, SAAR, thousand units

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May 19, 2015

Retail Sales

Total retail sales were flat in April following March's growth of 1.1 percent. Core retail sales, excluding auto, gas, and building materials, rose 0.1 percent in April after increasing 0.6 percent in March, month over month. Year over year, total retail sales rose 0.9 percent in April, its weakest growth since October 2009.

Retail Sales, year-over-year percent change, seasonally adjusted

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May 19, 2015

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

The economic policy uncertainty index increased 4 points to 109 in April, up from 105 points in March.

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

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May 19, 2015

Housing Starts

Total starts increased 20.2 percent from March to April. Single-family starts increased 16.7 percent during the same period. On a year-over-year basis, total housing starts increased 9.2 percent, and single-family starts jumped 14.7 percent.

Housing Starts, monthly, SAAR, thousand units

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May 15, 2015

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

In the week ending May 9, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 264,000, a decline of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised level. The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, was 272,000—its lowest level in 15 years—and a decline of 8,000 from the previous week's unrevised level. The continued downward trend of jobless claims signal a steadily strengthening labor market.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted, thousands

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May 14, 2015

Payroll Employment Changes

In April, nonfarm payrolls rose by a net 223,000. The 12-month trend in payroll growth was 249,000. During the past three months, job gains have averaged 191,000.

Payroll Employment Changes,  seasonally adjusted, thousands of jobs

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May 14, 2015

Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Nonfarm payrolls rose by a net 223,000 in April. Job gains were led by growth in professional and business services (up 62,000, with 9,000 coming from computer systems design and related services, 7,000 from business support services, and 6,000 from management and technical consulting services); health care (up 45,000, with 25,000 coming from ambulatory health care services, 12,000 from hospitals, and 8,000 from nursing and residential care facilities); and construction (up 45,000, the increase concentrated in specialty trade contractors, which was up 41,000). Employment in mining continued to decline, falling by 15,000 in April (with most of the job loss in support activities for mining (down 10,000) and in oil and gas extraction (down 3,000).

Revisions to the previous two months' estimates subtracted 39,000 jobs on net. February was revised up from 264,000 to 266,000, and the change for March was revised down from 126,000 to 85,000.

Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment, thousands, seasonally adjusted

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May 14, 2015

Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates

The U3 civilian unemployment rate ticked down to 5.4 percent in April from 5.5 percent in March. The broader U6 measure, which includes persons marginally attached to the labor force and persons part-time for economic reasons, also ticked down to 10.8 percent from 10.9 percent in March. The labor force participation rate rose to 62.8 percent. Since April 2014, the participation rate has remained within a narrow range of 62.7 percent to 62.9 percent.

Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates, monthly, percent, seasonally adjusted

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May 14, 2015

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

In the week ending May 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 265,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 262,000. The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, was 280,000—its lowest level in 15 years—and a decline of 4,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 284,000. Claims data point to continued improvement in the labor market.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted, thousands

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May 11, 2015

International Trade

The nominal trade deficit surged in March to $51.4 billion from $35.9 billion in February as imports jumped but exports barely grew. March's 7.7 percent ($17 billion) monthly increase in imports was the largest on record (data go back to 1992). The broad-based increase was driven by higher imports of consumer goods, mainly cell phones and apparel. The only major product category that saw a decline in imports in March was industrial supplies and materials. The surge in imports in March occurred as West Coast ports were working through their accumulated backlogs following the late February resolution of the West Coast port crisis.

Tepid 0.9 percent export growth in March was fairly widespread across product categories, with a notable exception of consumer goods. Civilian aircraft and engines led the increases.

On a year-over-year basis, exports fell for a third consecutive month, and import growth rose a still very subdued 0.9 percent. Growth of both exports and imports has been relatively low over the past few years compared with recent history (excluding declines in international trade during past recessions).

International Trade, monthly, seasonally adjusted

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May 11, 2015

Change in Consumer Credit Outstanding

Consumer credit outstanding rose by a strong $20.5 billion in March, following a gain of $14.8 billion in February, its largest increase since July 2014. Nonrevolving credit rose by $16.2 billion in March after February's gain of $17.2 billion. The rise continues to be related to steady demand for auto and student loans. Revolving credit rebounded in March, rising $4.4 billion following two consecutive months of declines. This increase was the largest since July 2014.

Change in Consumer Credit Outstanding, billion dollars, seasonally adjusted, monthly changes

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May 06, 2015

Disposable Personal Income and Personal Saving Rate

The personal saving rate fell to 5.3 percent in March from 5.7 percent in February. Real disposable income rose 3.3 percent in March from 4.0 percent in February, year over year.

Disposable Personal Income and Personal Saving Rate

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May 06, 2015

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Current Situation

The Conference Board's survey on current conditions fell to 106.8 in April from 109.5 in March. The University of Michigan's index rose to 107.0 in April from 105.0 in March.

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Current Situation

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May 06, 2015

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Expectations

The Conference Board's measure of expectations fell to 87.5 from 96.0 in March, the lowest it's been since September 2014. The University of Michigan's index rose to 88.8 in April from 85.3 in March.

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Expectations

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May 06, 2015

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 0.3 percent (month over month) in March after remaining flat in February, its best gain since November 2014. Real spending on durable goods rose 2.0 percent in March after falling 1.1 percent in February, and nondurable goods spending rose 0.2 percent after falling 0.1 percent (month-over-month) in February. Real PCE grew 3.0 percent year over year.

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, seasonally adjusted, year-over-year percent change

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May 05, 2015

Commodity Price Index – All Commodities

The Commodity Research Bureau's all commodities price index fell 0.4 percent month over month in April 2015. The index for livestock (such as cattle and hogs) fell 2.5 percent during this period, while indexes for metals (such as copper, lead, and steel) rose 0.1 percent and foodstuffs (such as sugar, corn, and butter) fell 0.2 percent. Since April 2014, the all commodities price index is down 16.5 percent, with the indexes for livestock decreasing 28.3 percent, foodstuffs decreasing 20.5 percent, and metals falling 19.8 percent. The all commodities index continues to be well below its April 2011 peak level of 575.7.

Commodity Price Index – All Commodities, monthly average, indexed 1967=100

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May 05, 2015

Federal Reserve Assets (Uses of Funds)

As of April 29, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet showed total assets of $4.5 trillion, reflecting a decrease of $8.8 billion since the last week of March. Agency debt and MBS decreased by $15.9 billion, and other assets increased by $6.7 billion.

Federal Reserve Assets (Uses of Funds), $ billions

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May 05, 2015

Federal Reserve Liabilities (Sources of Funds)

As of April 29, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet showed total liabilities of $4.5 trillion, reflecting a decrease of $8.8 billion since the last week of March. Banks' reserve balances decreased by $156.7 billion, and other liabilities increased by $173.8 billion. Reverse repurchase agreements decreased by $29.0 billion.

Federal Reserve Liabilities (Sources of Funds), $ billions

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May 01, 2015

U.S. House Prices

U.S. house prices increased 5 percent in February on a year-over-year basis.

U.S. House Prices, monthly index, year-over-year percent change

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May 01, 2015

Contributions to Real GDP Growth

According to the advance estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first quarter of 2015, real GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 0.2 percent following a 2.2 percent increase in the fourth quarter of 2014. Much of the growth was attributed to increases in personal consumption expenditures and private inventory investment, which contributed 1.31 and 0.74 percentage points, respectively. The growth was partly offset by negative contributions from exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local spending.

Contributions to Real GDP Growth, quarterly, percent, seasonally adjusted annualized rate

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May 01, 2015

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

In the week ending April 25, initial claims for unemployment insurance plunged to 262,000, the lowest level in 15 years, and down 34,000 from the previous week's upwardly revised level of 296,000 (from 295,000). The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, was 284,000, down 1,000 from the previous week's upwardly revised level of 285,000 (from 284,000). Claims remain at historically low levels, signaling continued improvement in the labor market.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted, thousands

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Apr 29, 2015

Core Capital Goods

New orders for core capital goods (nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft) fell 0.5 percent in March compared with February. The March decrease marked the seventh consecutive month that new orders have fallen. Similarly, shipments decreased 0.4 percent in March compared with the previous month. Shipments and new orders have both trended down since last summer. Several factors are possibly playing a part in the sluggish data, including the strong dollar, depressed oil prices, weak international demand and severe winter weather. Year-over-year growth rates for both orders and shipments decreased in March for the second consecutive month.

Core Capital Goods, year-over-year percent change, seasonally adjusted

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Apr 27, 2015

U.S. Single-Family Home Sales

New single-family home sales increased 19.4 percent from the year-ago level, and existing single-family home sales increased 10.9 percent during the same period.

U.S. Single-Family Home Sales

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Apr 27, 2015

Sales and Months' Supply of Existing Single-Family Homes

Existing single-family home sales increased 5.5 percent month over month, from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.350 million in February to 4.590 million in March. The months' supply of available existing homes for sale fell from 4.6 months in February to 4.5 months in March.

Sales and Months' Supply of Existing Single-Family Homes

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Apr 27, 2015

Sales and Months' Supply of New Single-Family Homes

New single-family home sales fell 11.4 percent on a month-over-month basis, from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 543,000 in February to 481,000 in March. The months' supply of available new single-family homes increased from 4.6 months in February to 5.3 months in March.

Sales and Months' Supply of New Single-Family Homes

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Apr 27, 2015

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

Initial claims for unemployment insurance held fairly steady in the April 18 week, up 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 294,000. The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, rose by two thousand to 285,000—just above the postrecession low of 283,000 reached the previous two weeks (last week's figure was unrevised). Claims remain at historically low levels, signaling continued strengthening in the labor market.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

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Apr 21, 2015

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

In the week ending April 11, initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 294,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's upwardly revised level of 282,000 (from 281,000). The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, held steady from the previous week at 283,000. The previous week was revised up from 282,000. Claims remain at historically low levels, signaling continued strength in the labor market.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted, thousands

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Apr 21, 2015

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Headline consumer prices fell 0.1 percent year over year in March, after no change from January to February (year over year). This is the second negative year-over-year change since October 2009, the first occurring in January of 2015. The energy commodities subindex (gasoline and fuel oil) rose 56.9 percent on a one-month annualized basis in March following an increase of 28.9 percent in February. The core measure, which excludes food and energy, was up 1.8 percent year over year, an increase from February's 1.7 percent reading.

Consumer Price Index (CPI), year-over-year percent change

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Apr 17, 2015

Retail Sales

Total retail sales rebounded in March, rising 0.9 percent following February's decline of 0.5 percent. Core retail sales, excluding auto, gas, and building materials, rose 0.4 percent in March after a 0.2 percent decline in February, month over month. Year over year, total retail sales rose 1.3 percent, and along with February's growth of 1.9 percent, these two months represent the slowest pace of growth since January 2014.

Retail Sales, year-over-year percent change, seasonally adjusted

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Apr 17, 2015

Industrial Production

Total industrial production (IP) decreased 0.6 percent in March compared with February. The March decrease was partially driven by a cutback in utilities production, which had been elevated during the previous two months as a result of unusually cold weather. Utilities production fell 5.9 percent in March, completely reversing the 5.7 percent gain in February. Likely as a result of low oil prices and a slowdown in oil and gas extraction, mining production decreased for the third consecutive month, falling 0.7 percent compared with February. Manufacturing production inched up 0.1 percent during March after two consecutive monthly declines. The strength of the dollar and weak global demand are believed to be playing a part in the tepid growth in manufacturing output. Total IP fell 1.0 percent at an annual rate in the first quarter, which was the first quarterly decline since the second quarter of 2009. On a year-over-year basis, it increased 2.0 percent.

Industrial Production, year-over-year percent change

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Apr 17, 2015

Housing Starts

Total starts increased 2.0 percent from February to March. Single-family starts increased 4.4 percent during the same period. On a year-over-year basis, total housing starts dropped 2.5 percent, and single-family starts fell 2.7 percent.

Housing Starts, monthly, SAAR, thousand units

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Apr 13, 2015

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

The economic policy uncertainty index increased 7 points to 107 in March, up from 100 points in February.

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

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Apr 13, 2015

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

In the week ending April 4, initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 281,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's downwardly revised level of 267,000 (from 268,000). The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, fell to 282,000—its lowest level since June 2000—and a decline of 3,000 from the previous week's downwardly revised level of 285,000 (from 286,000). Claims remains at historically low levels, signaling continued strength in the labor market.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted, thousands

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Apr 09, 2015

Change in Consumer Credit Outstanding

Consumer credit outstanding rose $15.5 billion in February following a gain of $10.8 billion in January. Nonrevolving credit rose $19.2 billion in February, up from January's gain of $11.8 billion due to the increase in auto and student loans, its strongest gain since July 2011. Revolving credit declined $3.7 billion in February from January's decline of $1.0 billion, its largest decline since April 2011.

Change in Consumer Credit Outstanding, billion dollars, seasonally adjusted, monthly changes

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Apr 08, 2015

Commodity Price Index—All Commodities

The Commodity Research Bureau's all commodities price index fell 0.7 percent month over month in March 2015. The index for livestock (such as cattle and hogs) rose 0.6 percent during this period while indices for metals (such as copper, lead, and steel) and foodstuffs (such as sugar, corn, and butter) fell. Since March 2014, the all commodities price index is down 14.4 percent, with the indices for livestock decreasing 21.9 percent, foodstuffs down 17.5 percent, and metals falling 19.5 percent. The all commodities index continues to be well below its April 2011 peak level of 575.7.

Commodity Price Index--All Commodities, monthly average, indexed 1967=100

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Apr 07, 2015

Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Nonfarm payrolls rose by a net 126,000 in March—the smallest gain since December 2013. Job gains were led by growth in professional and business services (up 40,000), education and health care (up 38,000), and retail trade (up 25,900). The goods-producing sector shed jobs (minus 13,000: 11,000 from mining, 1,000 from construction, and 1,000 from manufacturing) as did the government sector (minus 3,000). Revisions to the previous two months’ estimates subtracted 69,000 jobs on net—January was revised down from 239,000 to 201,000 and February revised down from 295,000 to 264,000.

Monthly job gains averaged 261,000 over the prior 12 months, and 197,000 over the past three months.

Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment, thousands, seasonally adjusted

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Apr 07, 2015

Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5 percent in March, as civilian employment rose by 34,000 but the labor force fell by 96,000. The labor force participation rate fell 0.1 percentage point to 62.7 percent in March, a level it has hovered at for nearly a year.

Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates, monthly, percent, seasonally adjusted

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Apr 07, 2015

International Trade

The nominal trade deficit in February narrowed to $35.4 billion from $42.7 billion in January as imports fell more than exports. Exports fell by 1.6 percent, driven by a decrease in capital goods, primarily civilian aircraft and semiconductors, and industrial supplies and materials. Total imports declined 4.4 percent from January. Industrial supplies and materials led the decline, as imports of petroleum products continued to drop significantly. The West Coast port disruptions likely contributed to the substantial decline in trade.

On a year-over-year basis, growth rates of exports and imports were negative in February. Growth of both exports and imports has been relatively low over the past few years compared to recent history (excluding plunges in international trade during past recessions).

International Trade, monthly, seasonally adjusted

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Apr 06, 2015

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) fell 0.1 percent in February after growing by 0.2 percent in January, month over month. This marks the first decline since April 2014. Durable goods fell 1.1 percent in February after rising 0.7 percent in January and nondurable goods remained flat, month over month. Real PCE grew 3.0 percent, year over year.

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, seasonally adjusted, year-over-year percent change

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Apr 06, 2015

Personal Saving Rate and Real Disposable Personal Income

The personal saving rate rose to 5.8 percent in February from 5.5 percent in January. This savings rate is the highest since December 2012. Real disposable income rose 4.0 percent in February from 4.2 percent in January year over year.

Personal Saving Rate (percent) and  Real Disposable Personal Income (year-over-year percent change)

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Apr 06, 2015

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Current Situation

The Conference Board's survey on current conditions fell to 109.1 in March from February's downward revision to 112.1. The University of Michigan's index fell to 105.0 in March from 106.9 in February.

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Current Situation

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Apr 06, 2015

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Expectations

The Conference Board's measure of expectations rose to 96.0 in March from February's upward revision to 90.0. The University of Michigan's index fell to 85.3 in March from 88.0 in February.

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Expectations

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Apr 06, 2015

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

In the week ending March 28, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to a nine-week low of 268,000, a decline of 20,000 from the previous week's upwardly revised level of 288,000 (from 282,000). The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, fell to 286,000, a decline of 14,000 from the previous week's upwardly revised level of 300,000 (297,000). This week's report signals further strength in the labor market.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted, thousands

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Apr 03, 2015

Contributions to Real GDP Growth

According to the third estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the fourth quarter of 2014, real GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 2.2 percent, unchanged from the second GDP reading. Much of the growth was attributed to conditions from consumer spending, which contributed 2.98 percentage points. Upward revisions were made to consumer spending and net exports, and private inventory investments was revised downward.

Contributions to Real GDP Growth, quarterly, percent, seasonally adjusted annualized rate

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Apr 03, 2015

Contributions from Federal and State & Local Government to GDP Growth

Government spending subtracted 0.35 percentage points from fourth quarter real gross domestic product growth. State and local consumption and investment contributed 0.18 percentage points to the annualized growth rate, and federal consumption and investment subtracted 0.53 percentage points.

Contributions from Federal and State & Local Government to GDP Growth, percent, quarterly

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Apr 03, 2015

Federal Reserve Assets (Uses of Funds)

As of March 25, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet showed total assets of $4.5 trillion, reflecting a decrease of $6.0 billion since the last week of February. Agency debt and MBS decreased by $9.8 billion, and other assets increased by $4.4 billion.

Federal Reserve Assets (Uses of Funds), $ billions

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Apr 03, 2015

Federal Reserve Liabilities (Sources of Funds)

As of March 25, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet showed total liabilities of $4.5 trillion, reflecting a decrease of $6.0 billion since the last week of February. Banks' reserve balances increased by $390.8 billion, and other liabilities decreased by $375.7 billion. Reverse repurchase agreements decreased by $27.3 billion.

Federal Reserve Liabilities (Sources of Funds), $ billions

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Apr 03, 2015

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

In March, the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index fell to 51.5, a 1.4 point drop compared with February and its lowest reading since May 2013. The new orders subindex fell to 51.8, a 0.7 point decrease from the previous month, and the production subindex increased slightly to 53.8. The new export orders subindex fell for the third consecutive month, possibly indicating that the stronger dollar is contributing to the slowdown in new export orders. The overall index remained above the 50 threshold for the 27th consecutive month, suggesting continued growth in the manufacturing sector.

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), seasonally adjusted, index, 50 or greater indicates expansion, less than 50 indicates contraction

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Apr 01, 2015

PCE Price Index

The headline personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose 0.3 percent year over year in February, up slightly from its January pace of 0.2 percent year over year. Core PCE price inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 1.4 percent year over year in February, up from 1.3 percent in January. At a one-month annualized rate, PCE headline inflation rose 2.1 percent in February, a significant increase from January's fall of 5.1 percent, and the core figure (one-month annualized rate) rose 1.6 percent, up from 1.0 percent in January.

PCE Price Index, year-over-year percent change, monthly

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Apr 01, 2015

PCE Price Index Components

Among the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index components, year over year, the nondurable goods subindex was down 3.4 percent in February, after January's fall of 3.7 percent. The 12-month average of the nondurable goods subindex was 0.1 percent. The durable goods subindex was down 2.6 percent year over year in February, from the 2.8 percent decline in January, and consistent with the long-term deflationary trend in the durable goods market. The services subindex rose 2.1 percent year over year. Services, which account for nearly two-thirds of personal expenditures, have experienced relatively stable inflation of around 2 percent since 2010, down from a little more than 3 percent prior to the recession.

PCE Price Index Components, year-over-year percent change, monthly

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Mar 31, 2015

U.S. House Prices

U.S. house prices increased 4 percent to 5 percent in January on a year-over-year basis.

U.S. House Prices, monthly index, year-over-year percent change

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Mar 27, 2015

Core Capital Goods

In February, new orders for core capital goods (nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft) fell 1.4 percent compared with January. The February decrease marked the sixth consecutive month that new orders have fallen. Shipments rose 0.2 percent compared with the previous month. The weak new orders data continue to suggest sluggish business investment in equipment in the near term. The ongoing cutbacks in the oil and gas industry and severe winter weather may have partially played a part in the recent weak data. Year-over-year growth rates for both orders and shipments decreased in February compared with the previous month.

Core Capital Goods, year-over-year percent change, seasonally adjusted

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Mar 27, 2015

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

In the week ending March 21, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 282,000, a decline of 9,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 291,000. The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, also fell to 297,000, a decline of 8,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 305,000. Claims trended downward following the end of the recession and have remained near the prerecession trough for about a year, continuing to signal a strengthening labor market.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted, thousands

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Mar 26, 2015

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Headline consumer prices remained unchanged year over year in February, up from the 0.1 percent decrease in January. On a one-month seasonally adjusted basis, February's index increases were broad-based and included increases in food, energy commodities, shelter, and used cars and trucks, among others. The energy commodities subindex (gasoline and fuel oil) rose 28.9 percent on a one-month annualized basis in February following seven consecutive months of declines. The core measure, which excludes food and energy, was up 1.7 percent year over year, an increase from January's 1.6 percent reading.

Consumer Price Index (CPI), year-over-year percent change

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Mar 26, 2015

U.S. Single-Family Home Sales

New single-family home sales increased 24.8 percent from the year-ago level, and existing single-family home sales increased 5.9 percent during the same period.

U.S. Single-Family Home Sales, year-over-year percent change, monthly

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Mar 26, 2015

Sales and Months' Supply of Existing Single-Family Homes

Existing single-family home sales increased 1.4 percent month over month, from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.280 million in January to 4.340 million in February. The months' supply of available existing homes for sale fell from 4.7 months in January to 4.6 months in February.

Sales and Months' Supply of Existing Single-Family Homes

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Mar 26, 2015

Sales and Months' Supply of New Single-Family Homes

New single-family home sales increased 7.8 percent on a month-over-month basis, from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 500,000 in January to 539,000 in February. The months' supply of available new single-family homes dropped to 4.7 months in February from 5.1 months in January.

Sales and Months' Supply of New Single-Family Homes

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Mar 23, 2015

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

In the week ending March 14, initial claims for unemployment insurance edged up to 291,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's upwardly revised level of 290,000 (from 289,000). The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, also rose to 305,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's upwardly revised level of 303,000 (from 302,000). This week's figures continue to signal an economy with a strengthening labor market.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted, thousands

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Mar 23, 2015

The View from the Fed: Summary of Economic Projections (Unemployment Rate)

The March Summary of Economic Projections for 2015 the unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points at the lower bound and 0.1 percentage points at the upper bound of the central tendency from the December projections. The upper and lower bounds of the 2016 and 2017 central tendency projection decreased slightly. The long-run projection also decreased by 0.2 percentage points at the lower bound and 0.3 percentage points at the upper bound of the central tendency.

The View from the Fed: Summary of Economic Projections  (Unemployment Rate)

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Mar 23, 2015

The View from the Fed: Summary of Economic Projections (Change in real GDP)

The March Summary of Economic Projections for 2015 gross domestic product growth showed a decrease of 0.3 percentage points at the lower bound and upper bound of the central tendency from the December projection. The central tendency of the long-term projection remained the same as the December projection: 2.0 to 2.3 percent.

The View from the Fed: Summary of Economic Projections (Change in real GDP)

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Mar 23, 2015

The View from the Fed: The Summary of Economic Projections (PCE Inflation)

The March Summary of Economic Projections for 2015 personal consumption expenditure inflation decreased at the lower and upper bounds of the central tendency from the December projection, by 0.4 and 0.8 percentage points respectively. The 2016 projection remained unchanged at the lower bound and decreased at the upper bound of the central tendency, and the 2017 projections increased slightly at the lower bound of the central tendency. The long-term central tendency projection remained unchanged from the December projection of 2.0 percent.

The View from the Fed: The Summary of Economic Projections (PCE Inflation)

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Mar 19, 2015

Industrial Production

Total industrial production (IP) inched up 0.1 percent in February compared with the previous month. The modest increase in IP was led by a 7.3 percent increase in utilities production, which continued to benefit from frigid temperatures in some parts of the country. Manufacturing output fell for the third consecutive month, declining 0.2 percent. The decrease in manufacturing output may have been partially driven by severe winter weather conditions that slowed production at manufacturing plants. Most manufacturing industry groups showed some decline in production, with motor vehicles and parts falling 3.0 percent during the month of February. Mining output decreased 2.5 percent compared with the previous month. Oil and gas well drilling declined 17.3 percent in February, as the energy sector adjusted to sharply lower oil and natural gas prices. Total IP increased 3.5 percent year over year.

Industrial Production, year-over-year percent change

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Mar 19, 2015

Housing Starts

Total starts fell 17.0 percent from January to February. Single-family starts fell 14.9 percent during the same period. On a year-over-year basis, total housing starts dropped 3.3 percent while single-family starts increased slightly, by 0.7 percent.

Housing Starts, monthly, SAAR, thousand units

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Mar 17, 2015

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

In the week ending March 7, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 289,000, a decline of 36,000 from the previous week's upwardly revised level of 325,000 (from 320,000). The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, also fell to 302,000, a decline of 4,000 from the previous week's upwardly revised level of 306,000 (from 305,000). This week's figures point to an economy with a strengthening labor market.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted, thousands

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Mar 17, 2015

Retail Sales

Total retail sales fell 0.6 percent in February over January, marking three consecutive months of decline. Month-over-month core retail sales (excluding autos, gas, and building materials) fell 0.1 percent in February and were unchanged from the previous month. Year over year, total retail sales rose 1.7 percent, the weakest growth since 2009.

Retail Sales, year-over-year percent change, seasonally adjusted

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Mar 11, 2015

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

The economic policy uncertainty index decreased 13 points to 104 in February, down from 117 points in January.

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

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Mar 11, 2015

Change in Consumer Credit Outstanding

Consumer credit outstanding rose $11.6 billion in January from an upwardly revised $17.9 billion in December. Nonrevolving credit rose $12.7 billion in January from an upwardly revised $11.7 billion in December as a result of the increase in auto and student loans. Revolving credit declined $1.2 billion in January following December’s significant growth of $6.2 billion.

Change in Consumer Credit Outstanding, billion dollars, seasonally adjusted, monthly changes

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Mar 10, 2015

Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Nonfarm payrolls rose by a net 295,000 in February. Job gains were widespread, led by growth in leisure and hospitality (up 66,000), education and health care (up 54,000), and professional and business services (up 51,000) sectors. Revisions to the previous two months' estimates subtracted 18,000 jobs on net. December remained up by 329,000 and January was revised down from 257,000 to 239,000.

Monthly job gains averaged 288,000 over the past three months. The year-over-year change was 3.3 million jobs, the highest year-over-year gain since the late 1990s.

Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment, thousands, SA

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Mar 10, 2015

International Trade

The nominal trade deficit decreased to $41.8 billion in January as imports fell more than exports. The 2.9 percent decline in exports was broadly based across major categories. Industrial supplies and materials decreased the most, with nearly every product category falling in January. Total imports declined 3.9 percent. Industrial supplies and materials by far saw the largest decline as imports of petroleum products fell significantly. Disruptions in processing cargoes at West Coast ports may have contributed to the weakening of U.S. international trade in January.

On a year-over-year basis, growth rates of exports and imports turned negative in January. Growth of both exports and imports has been relatively low over the past few years compared with recent history (excluding plunges in international trade during past recessions).

International Trade, monthly, seasonally adjusted

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Mar 10, 2015

Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates

The unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage point to 5.5 percent in February as civilian employment rose by 96,000 but the labor force fell by 178,000. The labor force participation rate fell 0.1 percentage point to 62.8 percent in February, a level it has hovered around since April 2014.

Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates, monthly, percent, seasonally adjusted

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Mar 09, 2015

Commodity Price Index - All Commodities

The Commodity Research Bureau's all commodities price index fell 2.1 percent month over month in February 2015. Contributing to the reduction were decreases in the indices for livestock (such as cattle and hogs), metals (such as copper, lead, and steel), and foodstuffs (such as sugar, corn, and butter). Since February 2014, the all commodities price index is down 9.7 percent, with the indices for livestock decreasing 10.2 percent, foodstuffs decreasing 9.0 percent, and metals declining 18.2 percent. The all commodities index continues to be well below its April 2011 peak level of 575.7.

Commodity Price Index - All Commodities, monthly average, indexed 1967=100

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Mar 05, 2015

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Expectations

The Conference Board's measure of expectations fell to 87.2 in February from 97.0 in January. The University of Michigan's index fell to 88.0 in February from 91.0 in January.

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Expectations

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Mar 05, 2015

Contributions to Real GDP Growth

According to the second estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the fourth quarter of 2014, real GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 2.2 percent, a slower rate then the initial GDP reading of 2.6 percent. Downward revisions were made to private inventory investment, consumer spending, residential investment, and net exports. Nonresidential structures, nonresidential equipment and software, government, and intellectual property products were revised upward. Much of the growth was attributed to contributions from consumer spending, which contributed 2.83 points.

Contributions to Real GDP Growth, quarterly, percent, seasonally adjusted annualized rate

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Mar 05, 2015

Personal Saving Rate and Real Disposable Personal Income

The personal saving rate rose to 5.5 percent in January from an upwardly revised 5.0 percent in December, marking the highest savings rate since December 2012. Real disposable income rose 4.2 percent in January from an upwardly revised 3.8 percent in December, year over year.

Personal Saving Rate (percent) and Real Disposable Personal Income (year-over-year percent change)

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Mar 05, 2015

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Current Situation

The Conference Board's survey on current conditions fell to 110.2 in February from 113.9 in January. The University of Michigan's index fell to 106.9 in February from 109.3 in January.

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Current Situation

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Mar 05, 2015

PCE Price Index Components

Among the PCE price index components, year over year, the nondurable goods subindex was down 3.7 percent in January, a further decline from December's fall of 1.4 percent and below the 12-month average of 0.3 percent. The durable goods subindex was down 2.8 percent year over year in January, from the 2.7 percent decline in December, and consistent with the long-term deflationary trend in the durable goods market. The services subindex rose 2.0 percent year over year. Services, which account for nearly two thirds of personal expenditures, have experienced relatively stable inflation of around 2 percent since 2010, down from the prerecession rate of a little more than 3 percent.

PCE Price Index Components, year-over-year percent change, monthly

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Mar 05, 2015

Contributions from Federal and State & Local Government to GDP Growth

Government spending subtracted 0.32 percentage points from fourth quarter real GDP growth. State and local consumption and investment contributed 0.22 percentage points to the annualized growth rate, and federal consumption and investment subtracted 0.54 percentage points.

Contributions from Federal and State & Local Government to GDP Growth, percent, quarterly

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Mar 05, 2015

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index declined slightly in February compared to the previous month, falling 0.6 points to 52.9. However, the index remained above the 50.0 threshold for expansion for the 26th consecutive month. The new orders, production, and employment subindexes all registered declines, and the supplier delivery times and inventories subindexes rose slightly. Survey respondents continued to cite the West Coast port slowdown as having a negative impact on their business activity. The prices paid subindex was unchanged at 35.0, which continues to indicate decreasing price pressures.

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), seasonally adjusted, index, 50 or greater indicates expansion, less than 50 indicates contraction

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Mar 05, 2015

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) grew 0.3 percent in January after falling 0.1 percent in December, month over month. Durable goods rose 0.2 percent in January after falling 1.0 percent in December, and nondurable goods also rose 0.2 percent in January following a fall of 0.2 percent in December, month over month. Real PCE, year over year, grew 3.4 percent, its highest pace since October 2006.

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, seasonally adjusted, year-over-year percent change

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Mar 05, 2015

PCE Price Index

The headline personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose 0.2 percent year over year in January, down markedly from its December pace of 0.8 percent year over year. Core PCE price inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 1.3 percent year over year in January, the same number as December. At a one-month annualized rate, PCE headline inflation fell 5.3 percent in January, a further decrease from December's fall of 2.7, and the core figure (one-month annualized rate) rose 0.7 percent, up from 0.1 percent in December.

PCE Price Index, year-over-year percent change, monthly

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Mar 04, 2015

Federal Reserve Liabilities (Sources of Funds)

As of February 25, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet showed total liabilities of $4.5 trillion, reflecting a decrease of $13.5 billion since the last week of January. Banks' reserve balances decreased by $315.6 billion. Other Liabilities increased by $256.3 billion. Reverse repurchase agreements and currency in circulation increased by $24.7 billion and $21.1 billion, respectively.

Federal Reserve Liabilities (Sources of Funds), $ billions

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Mar 04, 2015

Federal Reserve Assets (Uses of Funds)

As of February 25, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet showed total assets of $4.5 trillion, reflecting a decrease of $13.5 billion since the last week of January. Other assets decreased by $12.7 billion. Treasuries decreased by $637 million and Agency debt and MBS decreased by $159 million.

Federal Reserve Assets (Uses of Funds), $ billions

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Mar 02, 2015

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

In the week ending February 21, initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 313,000—the biggest jump since December 2013—and an increase of 31,000 from the previous week's downwardly revised level of 282,000 (from 283,000). The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, also rose to 295,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 283,000. Despite increases in these figures, the overall trend in claims data continues to point to a strengthening labor market.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted, thousands

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Mar 02, 2015

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Headline consumer prices fell 0.1 percent year over year in January, down from the 0.8 percent increase in December, the first negative year-over-year change since October 2009. Declines in the energy commodities subindex (made up of gasoline and fuel oil) were responsible for much of the deceleration in the headline number. On a one-month basis, the headline consumer price index declined at a 7.9 percent annualized rate, the third consecutive one-month decline. The energy commodities subindex fell 90.73 percent on a one-month annualized basis in December, marking the seventh consecutive monthly decline. The core measure, which excludes food and energy, was up 1.6 percent year over year, matching December's measure.

Consumer Price Index (CPI), year-over-year percent change

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Mar 02, 2015

Core Capital Goods

New orders for core capital goods (nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft) rose 0.6 percent in January over December, following a 0.7 percent decline in the previous month. Shipments fell 0.3 percent compared with the previous month, after rising 0.3 percent in December. In January, the three-month-over-three-month annualized growth rate was -9.0 percent for new orders. Although year-over-year growth for orders strengthened in January, the negative three-month-over-three-month annualized growth rate suggests that business investment in equipment got off to a sluggish start in 2015.

Core Capital Goods, year-over-year percent change, seasonally adjusted

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Feb 26, 2015

U.S. House Prices

U.S. house prices increased 4 to 5 percent in December on a year-over-year basis.

U.S. House Prices monthly index, year-over-year percent change

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Feb 26, 2015

U.S. Single-Family Home Sales

New single-family home sales increased 5.3 percent from the year-ago level, and existing single-family home sales increased 3.9 percent during the same period.

U.S. Single-Family Home Sales year-over-year percent change, monthly

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Feb 26, 2015

Sales and Months' Supply of Existing Single-Family Homes

Existing single-family home sales fell 5.1 percent month over month, from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.5 million in December to 4.27 million in January. The months' supply of available existing homes for sale rose from 4.7 months in January from 4.4 months in December.

Sales and Months' Supply of Existing Single-Family Homes

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Feb 26, 2015

Sales and Months' Supply of New Single-Family Homes

New single-family home sales slowed on a month-over-month basis, falling 0.2 percent from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 482,000 in December to 481,000 in January. The months' supply of available new single-family homes remained unchanged at 5.4 months January.

Sales and Months' Supply of New Single-Family Homes

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Feb 20, 2015

Industrial Production

In January, total industrial production (IP) rose a modest 0.2 percent compared with December. Manufacturing output increased 0.2 percent over the previous month. December's growth was revised down from a 0.3 percent gain to no change. Following a return to more normal temperature levels in January, utilities output increased 2.3 percent over December, which had experienced unusually warm weather. Mining output fell 1.0 percent compared with the previous month, reflecting a sharp dropoff in the drilling of oil and gas wells, which declined 10 percent in January. Total IP increased 4.8 percent year over year.

Industrial Production, year-over-year percent change

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Feb 20, 2015

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

In the week ending February 14, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 283,000, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 304,000. The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, also fell to 283,000—the lowest level since early November—from the previous week's unrevised level of 290,000. The trend in claims data continues to point to a strengthening labor market.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted, thousands

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Feb 19, 2015

Housing Starts

Total housing starts fell 2.2 percent from December 2014 to January 2015. Single-family starts fell 6.7 percent during the same period. On a year-over-year basis, total housing starts jumped 18.7 percent, and single-family starts increased 16.3 percent.

Housing Starts, monthly, SAAR, thousand units

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Feb 17, 2015

Retail Sales

Total retail sales fell 0.8 percent in January following December's decline of 0.9 percent. Core retail sales, excluding auto, gas, and building materials, rose 0.2 percent in January after a 0.1 percent decline in December, month over month. Year over year, total retail sales rose 3.3 percent, the same pace as December.

Retail Sales; year-over-year percent change, seasonally adjusted

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Feb 11, 2015

Change in Consumer Credit Outstanding

Consumer credit outstanding rose $14.8 billion in December following November's downward revision to $13.5 billion. Nonrevolving credit rose $9.0 billion as a result of auto and student loans. However, revolving credit rose a significant $5.8 billion in December from November's decline of $0.9 billion, its strongest growth since April 2014.

Change in Consumer Credit Outstanding billion dollars, seasonally
 adjusted, monthly changes 

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Feb 06, 2015

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

In the week ending January 31, initial claims for unemployment insurance was 278,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's upwardly revised level of 267,000 (from 265,000). The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, declined to 293,000 from the previous week's revised level of 299,000. Claims remain near historic lows and continue to point to a strengthening labor market.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted, thousands

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Feb 06, 2015

Commodity Price Index - All Commodities

The Commodity Research Bureau's all commodities price index fell 3.7 percent month over month in January 2015. Contributing to the reduction were decreases in the indexes for livestock (such as cattle and hogs), metals (such as copper, lead, and steel) and foodstuffs (such as sugar, corn, and butter). Since January 2014, the all commodities price index is down 6.2 percent, with the indices for livestock decreasing 3.5 percent, foodstuffs decreasing 3.2 percent, and metals falling 12.7 percent. The all commodities index continues to be well below its April 2011 peak level of 575.7.

Commodity Price Index - All Commodities, monthly average, indexed 1967=100

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Feb 06, 2015

Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates

The unemployment rate ticked up slightly by 0.1 percentage point to 5.7 percent in January, remaining at a relatively low level. The labor force participation rate edged up by 0.2 percentage point to 62.9 percent in January, essentially unchanged since July 2014.

Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates monthly, percent, seasonally adjusted

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Feb 06, 2015

Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 257,000 in January, including annual benchmark revisions. Monthly job gains, which include November and December revisions, averaged 336,000 over the past three months. Job gains were widespread, led by growth in goods-producing sectors (up 58,000, with construction adding 39,000, manufacturing adding 22,000, and mining subtracting 3,000), retail trade (up 46,000), education and health care (up 38,000), professional and business services (up 39,000), and leisure and hospitality (up 37,000).

Revisions to the previous two months’ estimates added 147,000 payrolls, on net. November was revised up from 353,000 to 423,000, and December was revised up from 252,000 to 329,000.

Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment
thousands, SA

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Feb 03, 2015

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index fell 1.6 points in January compared with December but remained above the 50.0 threshold for expansion at 53.5. Most of the subindexes decreased from the previous months' readings. Although still indicating expansion, the new orders subindex fell 4.9 points, and the production subindex decreased 1.2 points. Despite falling 1.9 points from December, the employment subindex remained in expansionary territory, indicating growth in manufacturing payrolls for the 19th consecutive month. According to the ISM report, 14 of 18 manufacturing industries surveyed reported growth in January. Several anonymous comments by ISM survey participants suggested that the West Coast port slowdown was hampering their business activity.

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI): seasonally adjusted, index, 50 or greater indicates expansion, less than 50 indicates contraction

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Feb 03, 2015

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

The economic policy uncertainty index increased 33 points to 115 in January, up from 82 points in December.

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

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Feb 03, 2015

PCE Price Index Components

Among the PCE price index components, year over year, the nondurable goods subindex was down 1.6 percent in December, from November's decline of 0.02 percent and below the 12-month average of 0.6 percent. The durable goods subindex was down 2.8 percent year over year in December, one-tenth of a percentage point down from November's pace, and consistent with the long-term deflationary trend in the durable goods market. The services subindex rose 2.1 percent year over year. Services, which account for nearly two thirds of personal expenditures, have experienced relatively stable inflation of around 2 percent since 2010, down from a little over 3 percent prerecession.

PCE Price Index Components, year-over-year percent change, monthly

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Feb 03, 2015

PCE Price Index

The headline personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose 0.7 percent year over year in December, down from its November pace of 1.2 percent year over year. Core PCE price inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 1.3 percent year over year in December, a one-tenth of a percentage point decrease from November. At a one-month annualized rate, PCE headline inflation fell 2.8 percent in December, a further decrease from November's decline of 2.0, and the core figure rose 0.1 percent, down from 0.2 percent in November. Recent PCE price index data suggest inflationary pressures remain at bay.

PCE Price Index, year-over-year percent change, monthly

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Feb 03, 2015

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Current Situation

The Conference Board's survey on current conditions rose significantly, to a seven-year high of 112.6 in January from a revised reading of 99.9 in December. The University of Michigan's index rose to 109.3 in January from 104.8 in December.

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Current Situation

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Feb 03, 2015

Federal Reserve Liabilities (Sources of Funds)

As of January 28, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet showed total liabilities of $4.5 trillion, reflecting a decrease of $2.5 billion since the last week of December. Banks' reserve balances decreased by $284.6 billion, while reverse repurchase agreements increased by $228.3 billion. Other liabilities increased by $40.8 billion.

Federal Reserve Liabilities (Sources of Funds), $ billions

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Feb 03, 2015

Federal Reserve Assets (Uses of Funds)

As of January 28, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet showed total assets of $4.5 trillion, reflecting a decrease of $2.5 billion since the last week of December. Other assets decreased by $4.9 billion, and Treasuries increased by $560 million. Agency debt and MBS increased by $206 million.

Federal Reserve Assets (Uses of Funds), $ billions

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Feb 03, 2015

Contributions from Federal and State & Local Government to GDP Growth

Government spending subtracted 0.40 percentage points from fourth quarter real GDP growth. State and local consumption and investment contributed 0.14 percentage points to the annualized growth rate, and federal consumption and investment subtracted 0.54 percentage points.

Contributions from Federal and State & Local Government to GDP Growth, percent, quarterly

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Feb 03, 2015

Contributions to Real GDP Growth

According to the advance estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the fourth quarter of 2014, real GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 2.6 percent. Much of the growth was attributed to contributions from consumer spending and private inventory investment, which contributed 2.9 and 0.8 percentage points to the quarter's growth, respectively. The deceleration in GDP growth, from 5.0 percent in the third quarter, primarily reflected an upturn in imports and downturn in government spending.

Contributions to Real GDP Growth, quarterly, percent, seasonally adjusted annualized rate

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Feb 03, 2015

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Expectations

The Conference Board's measure of expectations rose moderately to 96.4 in January from 88.5 in December. The University of Michigan's index rose to 91.0 in January from 86.4 in December.

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Expectations

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Jan 29, 2015

Core Capital Goods

In December, new orders for core capital goods (nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft) fell 0.6 percent compared with the previous month. November new orders were also revised down to a 0.6 percent decrease from a 0.1 percent decrease. Shipments for core capital goods also fell, decreasing 0.2 percent from November to December. Like new orders, shipments were revised downward for November to a 0.6 percent decrease from a 0.2 percent rise. The weak incoming data indicate that growth in business investment in equipment softened in the fourth quarter and suggest only modest growth over the near term. The December year-over-year growth rate for shipments fell to its lowest level since February 2014, and the annual growth rate for orders ticked up slightly from November.

Core Capital Goods, year-over-year percent change, seasonally adjusted

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Jan 28, 2015

U.S. House Prices

U.S. house prices increased 4 to 6 percent in November on a year-over-year basis.

U.S. House Prices, monthly index, year-over-year percent change

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Jan 28, 2015

Sales and Months' Supply of New Single-Family Homes

New single-family home sales rose on a month-over-month basis, increasing 11.6 percent from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 431,000 in November to 481,000 in December. The months' supply of available new single-family homes fell from 6.0 months in November to 5.5 months in December.

Sales and Months' Supply of New Single-Family Homes

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Jan 28, 2015

U.S. Single-Family Home Sales

New single-family home sales increased 8.8 percent from the year-ago level, and existing single-family home sales increased 4.0 percent during the same period.

U.S. Single-Family Home Sales, year-over-year percent change, monthly

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Jan 28, 2015

Federal Reserve Liabilities (Sources of Funds)

As of December 31, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet showed total liabilities of $4.5 trillion, reflecting a decrease of $11.9 billion since the last week of November. Reverse repurchase agreements decreased by $258.4 billion and currency in circulation decreased by $25.6 billion. Other liabilities increased by $171.0 billion, while banks' reserve balances increased by $101.3 billion.

Federal Reserve Liabilities (Sources of Funds), $ billions

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Jan 28, 2015

Federal Reserve Assets (Uses of Funds)

As of December 31, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet showed total assets of $4.5 trillion, reflecting a decrease of $11.9 billion since the last week of November. Agency debt and MBS decreased by $5.9 billion, and other assets decreased by $4.7 billion. Agency MBS was the leading contributor in this category, decreasing by $7.0 billion.

Federal Reserve Assets (Uses of Funds), $ billions

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Jan 28, 2015

Sales and Months' Supply of Existing Single-Family Homes

Existing single-family home sales increased 3.5 percent month over month, from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.320 million in November to 4.470 million in December. The months' supply of available existing homes for sale fell to 4.4 months in December from 5.1 months in November.

Sales and Months' Supply of Existing Single-Family Homes

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Jan 26, 2015

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

In the week ending January 17, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 307,000 from the previous week's upwardly revised level of 317,000 (from 316,000). The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, rose to 307,000—the highest since mid-July—from the previous week's upwardly revised level of 300,000 (from 298,000). Despite churn in the data during the December-to-January survey periods, including the four-week moving average rising by 7,000, the trend in claims data continues to point to a strengthening labor market.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted, thousands

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Jan 22, 2015

Housing Starts

Total starts increased 4.4 percent from November to December. Single-family starts increased by 7.2 percent during the same period. On a year-over-year basis, total starts rose by 5.3 percent, and single-family starts increased 7.9 percent.

Housing Starts, monthly, SAAR, thousand units

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Jan 20, 2015

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Headline consumer prices were up 0.8 percent year over year in December, down from 1.3 percent in November. Declines in the energy commodities subindex (made up of gasoline and fuel oil) were responsible for much of the deceleration in the headline number since midyear. The energy commodities subindex fell 68.3 percent on a one-month annualized basis in December, marking the sixth consecutive monthly decline. The core measure, which excludes food and energy, was up 1.6 percent year over year, down from November's measure of 1.7 percent.

Consumer Price Index (CPI), year-over-year percent change

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Jan 16, 2015

Retail Sales

Total retail sales fell 0.9 percent in December following November's downward revision to 0.4 percent. Core retail sales—excluding auto, gas, and building materials—fell 0.2 percent in December with November's data revised down to 0.5 percent, month over month. Year over year, total retail sales rose 3.2 percent, its slowest pace since February 2014.

Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates, monthly, percent, seasonally adjusted

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Jan 16, 2015

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

In the week ending January 10, initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped to 316,000 from the previous week's upwardly revised level of 297,000 (from 294,000). This is the highest level of initial unemployment claims in four months. However, the four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, was 298,000 and has remained below 300,000 for 18 straight weeks, a sign of a strengthening labor market.

Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates, monthly, percent, seasonally adjusted

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Jan 15, 2015

Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates

The unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage point to 5.6 percent in December, remaining at its lowest level since mid-2008. During the last 12 months, the unemployment rate declined 1.1 percentage points. The labor force participation rate edged down by 0.2 percentage point to 62.7 percent in December, essentially unchanged since April.

Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates, monthly, percent, seasonally adjusted

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Jan 15, 2015

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

In the week ending January 3, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 294,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 298,000. The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, held at 291,000 from the previous week. The four-week moving average has remained below 300,000 for 17 straight weeks, a continued sign of a strengthening labor market. The last time they were consistently below the 300,000 level was in 2006.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted, thousands

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Jan 15, 2015

Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Nonfarm payrolls rose by a net 252,000 in December, averaging 246,000 per month in 2014—the strongest year of job growth in 15 years. Job gains were widespread, led by growth in goods-producing (up 67,000, with 48,000 from construction and 17,000 from manufacturing), professional and business services (up 52,000), and education and health services (up 48,000, with 34,000 from health care) sectors. The leisure and hospitality sector was up 36,000 jobs, with food services and drinking places adding 44,000 payrolls and arts, entertainment, and recreation subtracting 7,400 payrolls.

Revisions to the previous two months' estimates added 50,000 jobs on net. October was revised up from a gain of 243,000 payrolls to a gain of 261,000, and November was revised up from a gain of 321,000 to 353,000.

Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment, thousands, SA

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Jan 14, 2015

Change in Consumer Credit Outstanding

Consumer credit outstanding rose $14.1 billion in November with October's data being revised upward from $13.2 billion to $16.0 billion. Nonrevolving credit led the growth with a strong gain of $15.0 billion as a result of auto and student loans, and revolving credit declined $0.9 billion for the second time in the last four months.

Change in Consumer Credit Outstanding, billion dollars, seasonally adjusted, monthly changes

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Jan 08, 2015

Contributions from Federal and State & Local Government to GDP Growth

Government spending contributed 0.8 percentage points to third quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Of the government figure, federal consumption and investment was responsible for contributing 0.68 percentage points, representing the largest percentage point contribution from that sector since the second quarter of 2010. State and local spending contributed 0.13 percentage points.

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Jan 08, 2015

Contributions to Real GDP Growth

According to the third estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the third quarter of 2014, real GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 5.0 percent, a faster rate than the second GDP reading of 3.9 percent and the advance GDP reading of 3.5 percent. Upward revisions were made to consumer spending and nonresidential equipment and software, and net exports were revised downward. Much of the growth was attributed to contributions from consumer spending.

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Jan 07, 2015

Commodity Price Index--All Commodities

The Commodity Research Bureau's all commodities price index fell 2.2 percent month over month in December 2014. Contributing to the reduction were decreases in the indices for livestock (such as cattle and hogs), metals (such as copper, lead, and steel) and foodstuffs (such as sugar, corn, and butter). Since January 2014, the all commodities price index is down 2.5 percent, with the indices for livestock increasing 5.6 percent, foodstuffs rising 2.4 percent, and metals falling 9.6 percent. The all commodities index continues to be well below its April 2011 peak level of 575.7.

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Jan 07, 2015

The View from the Fed: Summary of Economic Projections (Change in real GDP)

The December Summary of Economic Projections for 2014 gross domestic product (GDP) growth showed an increase by 0.3 percentage point at the lower bound and 0.2 percentage points at the upper bound of the central tendency from the September projection. The central tendency of the long-term projection remained the same as the September projection, at 2.0 to 2.3 percent.

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Jan 07, 2015

The View from the Fed: The Summary of Economic Projections (PCE Inflation)

The December Summary of Economic Projections for 2014 personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation decreased at the lower and upper bound of the central tendency from the September projection by 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively. The 2015 projection decreased at the lower bound and upper bound of the central tendency, and the 2016 and 2017 projections remained the same. The long-term central tendency projection remained unchanged from the September projection of 2.0 percent.

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Jan 07, 2015

PCE Price Index

The headline personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose 1.2 percent year over year in November, down from its October pace of 1.4 percent year over year. Core PCE price inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 1.4 percent year over year in November, a one-tenth of a percentage point decrease from October. At a one-month annualized rate, PCE headline inflation fell 2.0 percent in November, down from a 0.6 percent increase, and the core figure rose 0.1 percent, down from 2.0 percent in October. Recent PCE price index data suggest inflationary pressures remain at bay.

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Jan 07, 2015

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

In December, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index fell 3.2 points compared to November to 55.5. The new orders subindex decreased 8.7 points but still remained solidly in expansionary territory at 57.3. The production subindex fell 5.6 points compared to November but, like new orders, still pointed to continued increase in activity with a reading of 58.8. The employment subindex indicated manufacturing employment growth for the 18th consecutive month and increased 1.9 points compared to the previous month. The prices paid subindex fell 6.0 points to 38.5, its lowest reading since June 2012, suggesting that input price pressures are decreasing.

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Jan 07, 2015

The View from the Fed: Summary of Economic Projections (Unemployment Rate)

The December Summary of Economic Projections for the unemployment rate was 5.8 percent for the central tendency of the 2014 projection. The central tendency of the 2015 projection decreased by 0.2 percentage point at the lower bound and 0.3 percentage points at the upper bound from the September projections. The upper and lower bounds of the 2016 central tendency projection decreased slightly, and the upper and lower bounds of the 2017 central tendency projection remained unchanged. The long-run projection remained unchanged at both the upper and lower bounds of the central tendency.

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Jan 07, 2015

Personal Saving Rate (percent) and Real Disposable Personal Income (year-over-year percent change)

In November, the personal saving rate fell to 4.4 percent from 4.6 percent in October. The saving rate has been below 5.0 percent for the past four consecutive months.

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Jan 07, 2015

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

Real personal consumption grew 0.7 percent in November, a strong month-over-month increase from October’s 0.2 percent. Durable goods led the growth, rising 2.3 percent from October’s revised 0.4 percent. Nondurable goods also rebounded in November with month-over-montgrowth of 1.0 percent from 0.1 percent in October. Real PCE growth, year over year, was 2.8 percent.

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Jan 07, 2015

PCE Price Index Components

Among the PCE price index components, year over year, the nondurable goods subindex was down 0.1 percent in November, from October’s 0.8 percent pace and below the 12-month average of 0.8 percent. The durable goods subindex was down 2.6 percent year over year in November, four-tenths of a percentage point down from October’s pace and consistent with the long-term deflationary trend in the durable goods market. The services subindex rose 2.2 percent year over year. Services, which account for nearly two thirds of personal expenditures, have experienced relatively stable inflation of around 2 percent since 2010, down from a little more than 3 percent before the last recession.

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Jan 07, 2015

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Expectations

The Conference Board's measure of expectations fell to 88.5 in December from an upwardly revised 89.3 in November. The University of Michigan's index rose modestly to 86.4 in December from 79.9 in November.

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Jan 07, 2015

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Current Situation

The Conference Board's survey on current conditions rose to 98.6 in December from a revised reading in November of 93.7, the highest it has been since February 2008. The University of Michigan's index rose to 104.8 in December from 102.7 in November.

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Jan 02, 2015

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

In the week ending December 27, initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 298,000 from the previous week's upwardly revised level of 281,000 (from 280,000). Although the number of claims increased, they remained near postrecession lows. The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, increased slightly to 291,000 from 290,000 the previous week. Initial claims fell below the 300,000 level in late July and have held there fairly steadily since then. The last time they were consistently below the 300,000 level was in 2006.

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