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The Inflation Project


Longer-term deflation probabilities change little

Prices of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) with similar maturity dates can be used to measure probabilities of a net decline in the consumer price index over the five-year period starting in early 2011. One measure of this deflation probability ticked up from 12 percent on December 29 to 13 percent on January 5. An alternative lower bound on the probability of deflation has remained at 0 percent since November 15.

Categories: deflation