Deflation Probabilities

Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) markets, described in a technical appendix, this weekly report provides two measures of the probability of consumer price index (CPI) deflation through 2024.


Latest update: Deflation Probabilities Remain 0 Percent — March 12, 2020

The 2019–24 deflation probability was 0 percent on March 11, 2020, where it has remained since December 16, 2019. The 2018–23 deflation probability was also 0 percent on March 11, 2020, where it has remained since July 8, 2019. These deflation probabilities, measuring the likelihoods of net declines in the Consumer Price Index over the five-year periods starting in early 2018 and early 2019, are estimated from prices of the five-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) issued in April 2018 and April 2019 and the 10-year TIPS issued in July 2013 and July 2014. Deflation probabilities updates will be suspended until further notice.