Deflation Probabilities

Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) markets, described in a technical appendix, this weekly report provides two measures of the probability of consumer price index (CPI) deflation through 2024.


Latest update: Deflation Probabilities Unchanged — September 19, 2019

The 2019–24 deflation probability was 5 percent on September 18, unchanged from September 11. The 2018–23 deflation probability was 0 percent on September 18, where it has remained since July 8. These deflation probabilities, measuring the likelihoods of net declines in the Consumer Price Index over the five-year periods starting in early 2018 and early 2019, are estimated from prices of the five-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) issued in April 2018 and April 2019 and the 10-year TIPS issued in July 2013 and July 2014.