Deflation Probabilities

Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) markets, described in a technical appendix, this weekly report provides two measures of the probability of consumer price index (CPI) deflation through 2020.

2015–20 Deflation Probability Holds Steady—November 25, 2015

The 2015–20 deflation probability was 4 percent on November 24, unchanged from November 18. This deflation probability, measuring the likelihood of a net decline in the consumer price index over the five-year period starting in early 2015, is estimated from prices of the five-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security (TIPS) issued in April 2015 and the 10-year TIPS issued in July 2010.

Click and drag your cursor over a date range to zoom in. A double-click on the chart will reset the zoom.

From to