Deflation Probabilities

Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) markets, described in a technical appendix, this weekly report provides two measures of the probability of consumer price index (CPI) deflation through 2020.

2015–20 Deflation Probability Ticks Down—April 28, 2016

The 2015–20 deflation probability was 3 percent on April 27, down from 4 percent on April 20. This deflation probability, measuring the likelihood of a net decline in the consumer price index over the five-year period starting in early 2015, is estimated from prices of the five-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security (TIPS) issued in April 2015 and the 10-year TIPS issued in July 2010.

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