Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) markets, described in a technical appendix, this weekly report provides two measures of the probability of consumer price index (CPI) deflation through 2020.
2015–20 Deflation Probability Unchanged—February 4, 2016
The 2015–20 deflation probability was 5 percent on February 3, unchanged from January 27. This deflation probability, measuring the likelihood of a net decline in the consumer price index over the five-year period starting in early 2015, is estimated from prices of the five-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security (TIPS) issued in April 2015 and the 10-year TIPS issued in July 2010.
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