Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) markets, described in a technical appendix, this weekly report provides two measures of the probability of consumer price index (CPI) deflation through 2020.
Deflation probabilities remain at 0 percent—May 22, 2015
The estimates of 2015–20 deflation probabilities —based on the new 5-year TIPS issued last month and the 10-year TIPS issued in July 2010—have all been 0 percent for April 30 through May 21. The 2014–19 deflation probability is also 0 percent as of May 21.
Prices of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) with similar maturity dates can be used to measure probabilities of a net decline in the consumer price index over the five-year period starting in early 2014 or the five-year period starting in early 2015.
Click and drag your cursor over a date range to zoom in. A double-click on the chart will reset the zoom.