Longer-term deflation probabilities remain low

Prices of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) with similar maturity dates can be used to measure probabilities of a net decline in the consumer price index over the five-year period starting in early 2011. One measure of this deflation probability decreased slightly from 12 percent on June 22 to 11 percent on June 29. An alternative lower bound on the probability of deflation remained at 0 percent.

Categories: deflation