Longer-term deflation probabilities unchanged, still low

Prices of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) with similar maturity dates can be used to measure probabilities of a net decline in the consumer price index over the five-year period starting in early 2011. One measure of this deflation probability was 11 percent on July 6, unchanged from its value a week earlier. An alternative lower bound on the probability of deflation remained at 0 percent.

Categories: deflation