Longer-term deflation probabilities show little change

Prices of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) with similar maturity dates can be used to measure probabilities of a net decline in the consumer price index over the five-year period starting in early 2011. One measure of this deflation probability fell from 13 percent on December 21 to 12 percent on December 28. An alternative lower bound on the probability of deflation has remained at 0 percent since November 15.

Categories: deflation