Vol. 88, No. 3
Third Quarter 2003
Monetary Policy and Learning: Some Implications for Policy and Research
Ellis W. Tallman
This article outlines key issues, raised in a 1999 book by Thomas Sargent, about how to interpret monetary policy behavior and economic performance over the past thirty years using the Phillips curve framework and different assumptions about learning.
Monetary Policy and Learning
Lars E.O. Svensson
In the conference keynote address, reprinted here, Lars Svensson focused on what constitutes good monetary policy and how it is related to central-bank learning, how private-sector learning benefits from central-bank transparency, and how good monetary policy is best modeled.
Federal Home Loan Bank Mortgage Purchases: Implications for Mortgage Markets
W. Scott Frame
This article examines the various FHLB mortgage programs offered, analyzes the evolving competitive environment in the secondary conforming mortgage market, and identifies implications for this market.
The H-1B Program and Its Effects on Information Technology Workers
This article examines whether the H-1B visa program negatively affects IT workers' wages. The author uses data on labor condition applications (LCAs) filed with the U.S. Department of Labor to investigate whether the number of H-1B workers in an area, relative to the total number of IT workers in that area, is negatively associated with the level of and change in average IT wages and the unemployment rate among IT workers in that area.
Modern Economic Growth and Recent Stagnation
Scott L. Baier, Gerald P. Dwyer Jr., and Robert Tamura
Using data for most countries in the world since the 1800s and early 1900s, the authors find that (1) economic growth has improved the lives of people all around the world compared to those of their ancestors and (2) the economic stagnation or decline in some parts of the world in recent decades is unusual in the broader context of the history of the world since 1800.