Atlanta Fed Working Papers
The Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta publishes a working paper series to convey the research of staff economists and visiting scholars and stimulate professional discussion and exploration of economic and financial subjects.
Brent H. Meyer, Nicholas B. Parker, and Xuguang Simon Sheng
Working Paper 2021-12
Examining firms' inflation perceptions, expectations, and uncertainty, the authors find that firms' expectations for the nominal side of the economy have little in common with households' expectations, moving instead in tandem with inflation expectations of professional forecasters and market participants.
Claire Greene, Brian Prescott, and Oz Shy
Working Paper 2021-11
Examining consumer preferences for person-to-person payments, the authors find about two thirds of consumers have a first preference for cash. The remaining one third rank checks first. About 93 percent of consumers rank electronic technologies second. Transaction value, age, and education influence payment choice.
Working Paper 2021-10
What is the ideal way for a researcher to obtain quality count data from survey respondents? The author explores the potential tradeoffs between recall and diaries, suggesting that a hybrid survey design can offer researchers considerable benefits.
Working Paper 2021-9
Exploring survey-based inference, the author notes the importance of adjusting for discrepancies between the types of household members recruited and the target population. Researchers who rely on surveys should consider how variables of interest might vary within households and link to respondent selection.
Working Paper 2021-8
Exploring how mixed-gender couples divide household responsibility, the author finds that females consistently shoulder more responsibility for household shopping than males. For financial decision making, however, responsibility aligns with income and educational standing. Gender skew in roles seems to relate to aggregate household education, though not age.
Lei Fang and Fang Yang
Working Paper 2021-7
The authors find that while labor efficiency and home productivity are crucial in accounting for the differences in the allocation of time over the life cycle between the United States and France, consumption tax and social security are more important regarding allocation of expenditures.
Pierre Olivier Gourinchas, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Veronika Penciakova, and Nick Sander
Working Paper 2021-6
The authors assess the prospects of a 2021 increase in failures among small and medium-sized enterprises triggered by policies enacted during the COVID-19 crisis. Policies themselves don't create a 2021 time bomb for these enterprises, but the contraction of credit to the corporate sector could trigger failures.
Ermin Dinlersoz, Timothy Dunne, John Haltiwanger, and Veronika Penciakova
Working Paper 2021-5
While business applications fell slowly and persistently during the Great Recession, they followed a V-shaped pattern during the COVID-19 recession. Furthermore, the authors find that the changing composition of business applications in 2020 suggests a higher surge in new nonemployer businesses relative to new employer businesses.
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Federico S. Mandelman, Yang Yu, and Francesco Zanetti
Working Paper 2021-4
The authors show that search complementarities amplify small differences in productivity among firms. Market concentration fosters monopsony power in the labor market, magnifying profits and further enhancing the output share of high-productivity firms.
Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, and Brent H. Meyer
Working Paper 2021-3a
January 2021 (Revised March 2021)
Discussing evidence of COVID-19's effects as a reallocation shock, the authors of this working paper find, among other effects, that the pandemic has shifted relative employment growth trends in favor of industries with a high capacity of employees to work from home and against those with a low capacity for teleworking.
Brent Meyer, Emil Mihaylov, Steven J. Davis, Nicholas Parker, David Altig, Jose Maria Barrero, and Nicholas Bloom
Working Paper 2021-2
Using data from the Survey of Business Uncertainty, the authors make observations about pandemic-era uncertainty in the U.S. economy, including how overall uncertainty continues to substantially dampen capital spending plans, pointing to a source of weak growth in demand and potential gross domestic product.
Roozbeh Hosseini, Karen Kopecky, and Kai Zhao
Working Paper 2021-01
The authors of this working paper show that poor health accounts for nearly one third of the variation in lifetime earnings at age 65, primarily because it increases eligibility for social security disability benefits. Despite this, they find that these benefits are valuable and should be even more generous.