Impacts of Monetary Stimulus on Credit Allocation and Macroeconomy: Evidence from China
Kaiji Chen, Patrick Higgins, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
Working Paper 2016-9a
Revised October 2017
We develop a new empirical framework to identify and estimate the effects of monetary stimulus on the real economy. The framework is applied to the Chinese economy when monetary policy in normal times was switched to an extraordinarily expansionary regime to combat the impact of the 2008 financial crisis. We show that this unprecedented monetary stimulus accounted for as high as a 4 percent increase of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate by the end of 2009. Monetary transmission to the real economy was through bank credit allocated disproportionately to financing investment in real estate and heavy industries. Such an asymmetric credit allocation resulted in the persistently high investment rate and debt-to-GDP ratio. Our findings provide a broad perspective on a tradeoff between short-run GDP growth and longer-run accumulated debt in response to large monetary interventions.
JEL classification: E5, E02, C3, C13
Key words: asymmetric credit allocation, endogenous regime switching, debt-to-GDP ratio, heavy GDP, heavy loans, real estate, land prices, GDP growth target, nonlinear effects