Working Papers - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta - FRB Atlanta Several series of papers presenting the scholarly research of Atlanta Fed staff economists and visiting scholars. Community Affairs discussion papers address topical issues in community development. en-us Atlanta Fed Logo Economic Uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic D82ED043-66BF-47AF-AD10-12E3D1472373 Fri, 10 Jul 2020 07:30:00 EST The authors of this working paper examine several economic uncertainty indicators before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the indicators showed uncertainty in reaction to the pandemic and its economic fallout, the fluctuations highlight the difference in uncertainty measures between Wall Street and Main Street. Alternative Methods for Studying Consumer Payment Choice E02C1F7C-E9E0-40DF-A795-32D2E1DABAD3 Tue, 23 Jun 2020 07:30:00 EST Using machine learning techniques applied to consumer diary survey data, the author of this working paper examines methods for studying consumer payment choice. These techniques, especially when paired with regression analyses, provide useful information for understanding and predicting the payment choices consumers make. Discount Shock, Price-Rent Dynamics, and the Business Cycle B7933B18-3329-4452-8FE5-EBB35B54A151 Thu, 21 May 2020 14:06:00 EST To account for the volatility of the price-rent ratio in commercial real estate, the authors develop a model that identifies the discount shock as the most important factor in driving price-rent dynamics and links the dynamics in the real estate market to those in the real economy. Cyclical Lending Standards: A Structural Analysis 9A298A9E-C857-459D-8846-0667F3F33778 Thu, 21 May 2020 14:05:00 EST Examining the cyclical nature of lending standards, the authors use micro data to reveal that an exogenous shock to credit supply drives cyclical lending standards and accounts for a significant portion of fluctuations in bank loans and aggregate output. Connecting to Power: Political Connections, Innovation, and Firm Dynamics CA041E2F-5F30-465E-A37B-38FDA75DDA1A Fri, 17 Apr 2020 08:19:00 EST Using social security data and registry of local politicians in Italy, the authors show that political connections among large firms are widespread and help these firms increase their market shares, but not their productivities. These factors have negative consequences for aggregate dynamics. Patents to Products: Product Innovation and Firm Dynamics 701E549C-35A7-4B06-B444-6A55A1ECF8A7 Fri, 17 Apr 2020 08:00:00 EST Using textual analysis of products and patent documents, the authors examine the relationship between patents and actual product innovation in the market. While on average patents capture product innovation, patenting is especially important for market leaders to protect large market shares of existing products. Low-Income Consumers and Payment Choice FFAF8F7A-1C78-42E8-B390-6F8E20A61FD6 Thu, 20 Feb 2020 08:19:00 EST Low-income consumers are not only constrained with spending, but also with the type and variety of payment methods available. The author analyzes the low level of possession of credit and debit cards among low-income consumers who are also unbanked. Monetary Policy Implementation with an Ample Supply of Reserves 92B1B124-29B6-4048-B632-353F649733FD Fri, 17 Jan 2020 10:43:00 EST Before the 2007–09 financial crisis, excess reserves in the banking system were tiny. After the crisis, they became huge. Recently, they have been falling. The authors address the question of whether there is a best level of reserves. Bundling Time and Goods: Implications for Hours Dispersion 2D9B1DBF-106A-40DB-9672-AE247259BF7E Wed, 15 Jan 2020 09:00:00 EST The authors document large cross-sectional dispersion in hours worked. Using a model in which households combine market inputs and time to produce nonmarket activities, they show that the substitutability between market inputs and time within and across activities is key to accounting for this fact. Digital Adoption, Automation, and Labor Markets in Developing and Emerging Economies F6D0282C-DEE7-41BA-884F-EC04472AA94D Thu, 26 Dec 2019 13:21:00 EST The authors document a strong negative link between self-employment and digital adoption by firms in emerging and developing economies. Changes in firms' barriers to entry, which are directly linked to the cost of technology adoption, are key to explaining the data.