Working Papers Inference Based On Time-Varying SVARs Identified with Time Restrictions https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2024/03/25/04--inference-based-on-time-varying-svars-identified-w-time-restrictions?item=083ff53b-f74c-43d3-a8ed-812ae5db8102 083ff53b-f74c-43d3-a8ed-812ae5db8102 Monday, 25 Mar 2024 10:0:0 EST Jonas E. Arias, Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, Minchul Shin, and Daniel F. WaggonerWorking Paper 2024-4March 2024 The authors use a new approach for Bayesian inference to analyze the role played by monetary policy during the latest inflation surge. The methodology is innovative to the literature and allows the separation of inference from identification. Declining Responsiveness at the Establishment Level: Sources and Productivity Implications https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2024/02/14/03--declining-responsiveness-at-establishment-level--sources-and-productivity-implications?item=d01a0d10-da73-4caa-982c-47874c9ca794 d01a0d10-da73-4caa-982c-47874c9ca794 Wednesday, 14 Feb 2024 10:0:0 EST Russell Cooper, John Haltiwanger, and Jonathan WillisWorking Paper 2024-3February 2024 To assess the main contributors to the well-documented decline in dynamism among US establishments, the authors construct a plant-level dynamic optimization framework. They find that increasing costs of adjusting labor is the primary contributor to the observed decline in plant-level responsiveness of employment to profitable opportunities. Skilled Immigration Frictions as a Barrier for Young Firms https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2024/02/05/02--skilled-immigration-frictions-as-barrier-for-young-firms?item=5c0e3fcd-6ab9-4912-85be-ebab438b6e27 5c0e3fcd-6ab9-4912-85be-ebab438b6e27 Monday, 5 Feb 2024 10:0:0 EST Federico S. Mandelman, Mishita Mehra, and Hewei ShenWorking Paper 2024-2February 2024 The authors explore the impact of skilled immigration policy frictions on technology-intensive firms, showing that such frictions directly influence young firm dynamics in technology-intensive sectors by affecting firm survival. Slowdown in Immigration, Labor Shortages, and Declining Skill Premia https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2024/01/16/01--slowdown-in-immigration-labor-shortages-and-declining-skill-premia?item=c5c5b305-ba4e-4135-8ca7-e5cea28a30a3 c5c5b305-ba4e-4135-8ca7-e5cea28a30a3 Tuesday, 16 Jan 2024 10:0:0 EST Federico S. Mandelman, Yang Yu, Francesco Zanetti, and Andrei ZlateWorking Paper 2024-1January 2024 The authors document a slowdown in low-skilled immigration that started during the Great Recession, and they link it to labor shortages in service-related jobs and a decline in the college premium. This decline reduced the incentive for education and reduced labor productivity over time. A Critical Review of the Common Ownership Literature https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/11/08/17--critical-review-of-common-ownership-literature?item=07b8e460-010a-46f1-9663-adbd59626136 07b8e460-010a-46f1-9663-adbd59626136 Wednesday, 8 Nov 2023 10:0:0 EST Kristopher Gerardi, Michelle Lowry, and Carola SchenoneWorking Paper 2023-17November 2023The authors conduct a critical survey of the common ownership literature, focusing on measurement issues, identification challenges, and plausible causal mechanisms. They conclude that little credible evidence exists that common ownership exerts anticompetitive effects, although more research is warranted. Forward Guidance and Its Effectiveness: A Macro Finance Shadow-Rate Framework https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/10/16/16--forward-guidance-and-its-effectiveness--macro-finance-shadow-framework?item=46fad734-32a1-4087-ac74-169a6d5a1eef 46fad734-32a1-4087-ac74-169a6d5a1eef Monday, 16 Oct 2023 10:0:0 EST Junko Koeda and Bin WeiWorking Paper 2023-16October 2023The authors examine central bank forward guidance, which provides monetary policy communication. They find that outcome-based forward guidance is indeed effective and has significant monetary-easing effects on the real economy. The Expansion of Varieties in the New Age of Advertising https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/09/28/15--expansion-of-varieties-in-new-age-of-advertising?item=da4e867a-07da-416a-8c17-635066d57451 da4e867a-07da-416a-8c17-635066d57451 Thursday, 28 Sep 2023 10:0:0 EST Salomé Baslandze, Jeremy Greenwood, Ricardo Marto, and Sara MoreiraWorking Paper 2023-15September 2023The authors study how the rise in digital advertising that facilitated consumer targeting by firms led to the increase in product varieties and affected economic welfare. Why Does the Yield Curve Predict GDP Growth? The Role of Banks https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/09/28/14--why-does-yield-curve-predict-gdp-growth--role-of-banks?item=1d064aca-5bbf-4f8c-a1a9-d5c801ac5940 1d064aca-5bbf-4f8c-a1a9-d5c801ac5940 Thursday, 28 Sep 2023 9:30:0 EST Camelia Minoiu, Andres Schneider, and Min WeiWorking Paper 2023-14September 2023Examining the effect of the slope of the yield curve on economic activity through bank lending, the authors show that a steeper yield curve associated with higher term premiums boosts bank profits and the supply of bank loans. Uniform Priors for Impulse Responses https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/09/28/13--uniform-priors-for-impulse-responses?item=46895540-090d-4226-b135-4291a5a8444e 46895540-090d-4226-b135-4291a5a8444e Thursday, 28 Sep 2023 9:0:0 EST Jonas E. Arias, Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, and Daniel F. WaggonerWorking Paper 2023-13September 2023The authors consider the conventional method for Bayesian inference in structural vector autoregressions identified with sign restrictions and despite the call for caution from some researchers find that there is nothing fundamentally wrong with using this approach. The Impact of Supply Chain Disruptions on Business Expectations during the Pandemic https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/09/28/12--impact-of-supply-chain-disruptions-on-business-expectations-during-pandemic?item=5edd2fc3-86e0-40fa-9fe7-84dab082f184 5edd2fc3-86e0-40fa-9fe7-84dab082f184 Thursday, 28 Sep 2023 8:30:0 EST Brent H. Meyer, Brian C. Prescott, and Xuguang Simon ShengWorking Paper 2023-12September 2023Using data from the Atlanta Fed's Business Inflation Expectations survey, the authors document how firms' views on their marginal cost expectations and risk evolved over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. Modeling Event Studies with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/09/07/11--modeling-event-studies-with-heterogeneous-treatment-effects?item=8c322a3a-89b8-4d35-adbb-72c43fa404e4 8c322a3a-89b8-4d35-adbb-72c43fa404e4 Thursday, 7 Sep 2023 3:30:0 EST Laura M. Argys, Thomas A. Mroz, and M. Melinda PittsWorking Paper 2023-11September 2023The authors develop a simple approach to overcome the shortcomings of using a standard, single treatment–effect event study to assess the ability of an empirical model to measure heterogeneous treatment effects. Monetary Policy Implementation with Ample Reserves https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/08/31/10--monetary-policy-implementation-with-ample-reserves?item=05378b40-b7cf-42ae-869e-eb9a4dde1504 05378b40-b7cf-42ae-869e-eb9a4dde1504 Thursday, 31 Aug 2023 3:30:0 EST Gara Afonso, Kyungmin Kim, Antoine Martin, Ed Nosal, Simon Potter, and Sam Schulhofer-WohlWorking Paper 2023-10August 2023Policy makers can face tradeoffs costs and benefits in the way they implement monetary policy. The authors find that the optimal regime is characterized by ample reserves: a situation where the supply of central bank reserves is neither too scarce nor too abundant. The Local Origins of Business Formation https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/08/02/09--local-origins-of-business-formation?item=cd0423d7-6acd-4a3b-97fa-9f077a05fbdf cd0423d7-6acd-4a3b-97fa-9f077a05fbdf Wednesday, 2 Aug 2023 3:30:0 EST Emin Dinlersoz, Timothy Dunne, John Haltiwanger, and Veronika Penciakova Working Paper 2023-9August 2023The authors decompose spatial variation in startups into variation in business idea creation and the transition rate of ideas to startups. They also quantify the fraction of variation in startups, applications, and transition rates accounted for by local conditions at the county and tract levels. Tell Me Something I Don't Already Know: Learning in Low- and High-Inflation Settings https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/07/31/08--tell-me-something-i-dont-already-know--learning-in-low-and-high-inflation-settings?item=00cb03d4-bb89-4140-a7be-c20ddde348f0 00cb03d4-bb89-4140-a7be-c20ddde348f0 Monday, 31 Jul 2023 3:30:0 EST Michael Weber, Bernardo Candia, Tiziano Ropele, Rodrigo Lluberas, Serafin Frache, Brent Meyer, Saten Kumar, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Dimitris Georgarakos, Olivier Coibion, and Geoff KennyWorking Paper 2023-8July 2023Using randomized control trials applied over time in different countries, the authors study how the economic environment affects how agents learn from new information. In higher-inflation environments, firms become more attentive and informed about inflation, responding less to exogenously provided information about inflation and monetary policy. The Role of Social Costs in Response to Labor Market Opportunities: Differences across Race https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/07/14/07--social-costs-role-in-response-to-labor-market-opportunities--differences-across-race?item=4f0869f2-8afa-4d4c-bb5b-f24c0f783c74 4f0869f2-8afa-4d4c-bb5b-f24c0f783c74 Friday, 14 Jul 2023 3:30:0 EST Kalee E. Burns and Julie L. HotchkissWorking Paper 2023-7July 2023Investigating the role that migration constraints play in racial/ethnic disparities in the labor market, the authors find that Black workers are typically less responsive than White workers to changes in job opportunities, though their responsiveness increases when job opportunities are in locations with a higher share of their own racial/ethnic group.