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The commentaries for the 75 most recent GDPNow updates are below, starting with the latest estimate.

July 2, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -35.2 percent on July 2, up from -36.8 percent on July 1. After this morning's release of the employment report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the international trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the manufacturing report from the Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -34.8 percent and -56.9 percent, respectively, to -33.8 percent and -52.3 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, July 9. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

July 1, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -36.8 percent on July 1, up from -39.5 percent on June 26. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -38.0 percent and -58.6 percent, respectively, to -34.8 percent and -56.9 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, July 2. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

June 26, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -39.5 percent on June 26, up from -46.6 percent on June 25. After this morning’s data releases from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, an increase in the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from -49.7 percent to -38.0 percent was slightly offset by a decrease in the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from -54.4 percent to -58.6 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, July 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

June 25, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -46.6 percent on June 25, down from -45.5 percent on June 17. After this week's data releases from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the National Association of Realtors, a decrease in the nowcast of second-quarter real residential investment growth from -25.9 percent to -35.9 percent was offset by an increase in the nowcast of real business fixed investment growth from -31.1 percent to -28.2 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.30 percentage points to -1.27 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, June 26. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

June 17, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -45.5 percent on June 17, down from -45.4 percent on June 16. After this morning’s housing starts report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from -23.3 percent to -25.9 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, June 25. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

June 16, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -45.4 percent on June 16, up from -48.5 percent on June 9. Following data releases from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, and the U.S. Census Bureau over the past week, nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -53.4 percent and -56.3 percent, respectively, to -49.6 percent and -54.5 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, June 17. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

June 9, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -48.5 percent on June 9, up from -53.8 percent on June 4. After last Friday’s employment release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and this morning’s wholesale trade release from the U.S. Census Bureau, increases in the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditure growth and real gross private domestic investment growth were partly offset by decreases in the nowcasts of real government spending growth and real net exports.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, June 16. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

June 4, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -53.8 percent on June 4, down from -52.8 percent on June 1. Following this week's data releases from the Institute for Supply Management, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from -62.6 percent to -64.2 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.43 percentage points to 0.07 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, June 9. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

June 1, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -52.8 percent on June 1, down from -51.2 percent on May 29. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from -56.5 percent and -61.5 percent, respectively, to -58.1 percent and -62.6 percent, respectively. The nowcast of the contribution of the change in net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.73 percentage points to 0.43 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, June 4. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

May 29, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -51.2 percent on May 29, down from -40.4 percent on May 28. After this morning's Advance Economic Indicators report from the U.S. Census Bureau and personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth decreased from -43.3 percent to -56.5 percent and the nowcast of the contribution of change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 2.07 percentage points to 0.73 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, June 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

May 28, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -40.4 percent on May 28, up from -41.9 percent on May 19. After recent housing market releases from the National Association of Realtors and the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's advance durable manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -66.0 percent to -60.2 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, May 29. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

May 19, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -41.9 percent May 19, up from -42.8 percent on May 15. After this morning's new residential construction report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -69.4 percent to -66.0 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, May 28. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

May 15, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -42.8 percent on May 15, down from -34.9 percent on May 8. After this week's data releases from the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from -33.9 percent and -62.8 percent, respectively, to -43.6 percent and -69.4 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, May 19. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

May 8, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -34.9 percent on May 8, down from -17.6 percent on May 5. After this morning's releases of the employment report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from -21.7 percent and -22.1 percent, respectively, to -33.9 percent and -62.8 percent, respectively. Also, the nowcast of second-quarter real government spending growth decreased from 1.9 percent to -6.7 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.82 percentage points to 1.62 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, May 15. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

May 5, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -17.6 percent on May 5, down from -16.6 percent on May 1. After yesterday's and today’s data releases by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from -20.4 percent and -21.7 percent, respectively, to -21.7 percent and -22.1 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, May 8. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

May 1, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -16.1 percent on May 1, down from -12.1 percent on April 30. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from -16.3 percent and -10.5 percent, respectively, to -20.4 percent and -21.7 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.60 percentage points to 0.85 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, May 5. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

April 30, 2020

The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -12.1 percent on April 30. The initial estimate of first-quarter real GDP growth released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on April 29 was -4.8 percent, 3.8 percentage points below the final GDPNow model nowcast released on April 28.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, May 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

April 28, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is -1.0 percent on April 28, down from -0.3 percent on April 24. After yesterday’s annual retail trade revision and this morning's Advance Economic Indicators report from the U.S. Census Bureau, an increase in the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from -1.4 percent to -1.1 percent was offset by a decrease in the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from -0.8 percent to -4.8 percent, and a decrease in the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth from 0.47 percentage points to 0.23 percentage points.

This is the last GDPNow forecast for the first quarter. The first GDPNow forecast for the second quarter of 2020 will be on Thursday, April 30. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

April 24, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is -0.3 percent on April 24, unchanged from April 16 after rounding. After this week's data releases from the U.S. Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -0.9 percent to -0.8 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, April 28. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

April 16, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is -0.3 percent on April 16, the same estimate as on April 15 after rounding. After this morning’s housing starts report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real residential investment growth increased from 18.2 percent to 19.9 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, April 24. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

April 15, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is -0.3 percent on April 15, down from 1.0 percent on April 9. After data releases from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of the first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 0.3 percent and 0.0 percent, respectively, to -1.6 percent and -1.2 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, April 16. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

April 9, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is 1.0 percent on April 9, down from 1.3 percent on April 2. After last week’s and this week’s data releases from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Institute for Supply Management, and the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of the first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 0.5 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively, to 0.3 percent and 0.0 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, April 15. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

April 2, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is 1.3 percent on April 2, down from 2.2 percent on April 1. After this morning's data releases from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcasts of the first-quarter real personal consumption expenditure growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 1.3 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively, to 0.5 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, April 9. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

April 1, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is 2.2 percent on April 1, down from 2.7 percent on March 27. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 1.6 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively, to 1.3 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively, and the nowcast of first-quarter real government spending growth decreased from 2.2 percent to 2.0 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, April 2. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

March 27, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is 2.7 percent on March 27, down from 3.1 percent on March 25. After this morning’s and yesterday’s data releases from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcasts of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth and first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth decreased from 7.4 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively, to 4.5 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of change in real net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.02 percent to 0.45 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, April 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

March 25, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is 3.1 percent on March 25, unchanged from March 18 after rounding. After this week’s and last week’s data releases from the National Association of Realtors and the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 7.5 percent to 7.4 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, March 27. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

March 18, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is 3.1 percent on March 18, up from 2.9 percent on March 17. After this morning's new residential construction report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 6.3 percent to 7.5 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, March 25. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

March 17, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is 2.9 percent on March 17, down from 3.1 percent on March 6. Following this week’s and last week’s data releases by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and the U.S. Census Bureau, a decrease in the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.4 percent to 2.2 percent was partly offset by an increase in the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 6.1 percent to 6.3 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, March 18. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

March 6, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is 3.1 percent on March 6, up from 2.7 percent on March 2. Following data releases by the Institute for Supply Management, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth and first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 5.2 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively, to 6.1 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of first-quarter real government spending growth increased from 1.7 percent to 2.1 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, March 17. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

March 2, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is 2.7 percent on March 2, up from 2.6 percent on February 28. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth decreased from 2.3 percent to 2.2 percent, and the nowcasts of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth and first-quarter real government spending growth increased from 5.1 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively, to 5.2 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, March 6. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

February 28, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is 2.6 percent on February 28, down from 2.7 percent on February 27. After this morning's Advance Economic Indicators report from the U.S. Census Bureau and personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of first-quarter real business fixed investment growth decreased from 2.6 percent to 0.1 percent and the nowcast of the contribution of change in real net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.23 percentage points to -0.02 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, March 2. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

February 27, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is 2.7 percent on February 27, up from 2.6 percent on February 19. After last week's and this week's data releases by the National Association of Realtors, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 6.4 percent to 7.7 percent and the nowcast of the contribution of change in real net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.27 percentage points to -0.23 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, February 28. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

February 19, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is 2.6 percent on February 19, up from 2.4 percent on February 14. After this morning’s Producer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and new residential construction report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 5.1 percent to 6.4 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, February 27. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

February 14, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is 2.4 percent on February 14, down from 2.7 percent on February 7. After this week's data releases from the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and the U.S. Census Bureau, decreases in the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private fixed investment growth were partially offset by increases in the nowcasts of first-quarter real government spending growth and the change in first-quarter real private inventory investment.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, February 19. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

February 7, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is 2.7 percent on February 7, down from 2.9 percent on February 5. After this morning's release of the employment report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 3.0 percent and 5.9 percent, respectively, to 2.9 percent and 5.0 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, February 14. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

February 5, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is 2.9 percent on February 5, unchanged from February 3. After yesterday's and this morning's data releases from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the Institute for Supply Management, an increase in the nowcast of first-quarter real business fixed investment growth was offset by slight decreases in the nowcasts of the contributions of real private inventory investment and real net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, February 7. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

February 3, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is 2.9 percent on February 3, up from 2.7 percent on January 31. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.7 percent and 5.7 percent, respectively, to 3.0 percent and 5.8 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, February 5. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

January 31, 2020

The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is 2.7 percent on January 31. The initial estimate of fourth-quarter real GDP growth released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on January 30 was 2.1 percent, 0.4 percentage points above the final GDPNow model nowcast released on January 29.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, February 3. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

January 29, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 1.7 percent on January 29, down from 1.9 percent on January 28. After this morning's Advance Economic Indicators report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from -2.0 percent to -2.5 percent.

This is the last GDPNow forecast for the fourth quarter. The first GDPNow forecast for the first quarter of 2020 will be on Friday, January 31. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

January 28, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 1.9 percent on January 28, up from 1.8 percent on January 17. After last week's and this week's data releases by the National Association of Realtors and the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -2.3 percent to -2.0 percent..

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, January 29. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

January 17, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 1.8 percent on January 17, unchanged from January 16 after rounding. After this morning’s housing starts report from the U.S. Census Bureau and industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, a decrease in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 1.6 percent to 1.4 percent was partly offset by an increase in the nowcast of real residential investment growth from 4.3 percent to 5.5 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, January 28. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

January 16, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 1.8 percent on January 16, down from 2.3 percent on January 10. After this morning's retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth declined from 2.3 percent to 1.6 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, January 17. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

January 10, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 2.3 percent on January 10, unchanged from January 7 after rounding. After this morning's release of the employment report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.4 percent and -2.5 percent, respectively, to 2.3 percent and -2.7 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, January 16. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

January 7, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 2.3 percent on January 7, unchanged from January 3. After yesterday's and today's data releases from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the Institute for Supply Management, a slight increase in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real net exports was offset by declines in the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, January 10. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

January 3, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 2.3 percent on January 3, unchanged from December 23. After this week's data releases from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, increases in the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real government spending growth and fourth-quarter real net exports were offset by declines in the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, January 7. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

December 23, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 2.3 percent on December 23, up from 2.1 percent on December 20. After this morning's advance durable manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau, and this morning's new home sales and construction costs from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -0.9 percent to -0.1 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, January 3. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

December 20, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 2.1 percent on December 20, down from 2.3 percent on December 17. After this morning's and yesterday's releases from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 0.6 percent to -0.9 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, December 23. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

December 17, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 2.3 percent on December 17, up from 2.0 percent on December 13. After this morning’s new residential construction report from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's industrial production report from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, increases in the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth were slightly offset by a decrease in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real net exports.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, December 20. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

December 13, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 2.0 percent on December 13, unchanged from December 6. After this week’s data releases from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, and the U.S. Census Bureau, increases in the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real government spending growth, real private inventory investment, and real net exports were offset by a decline in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, December 17. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

December 6, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 2.0 percent on December 6, up from 1.5 percent on December 5. After this morning's release of the employment report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.0 percent and -2.8 percent, respectively, to 2.3 percent and -0.8 percent, respectively, and the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.40 percentage points to 0.35 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, December 13. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

December 5, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 1.5 percent on December 5, up from 1.3 percent on December 2. After this morning's and yesterday's data releases from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Institute for Supply Management, and the U.S. Census Bureau, increases in the nowcasts of real personal consumption expenditures growth and real private fixed-investment growth were slightly offset by decreases in the nowcasts of real private inventory investment and real net exports.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, December 6. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

December 2, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 1.3 percent on December 2, down from 1.7 percent on November 27. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.0 percent and -1.7 percent, respectively, to 1.8 percent and -2.7 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, December 5. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

November 27, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 1.7 percent on November 27, up from 0.4 percent on November 19. After this morning's and yesterday's data releases from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 1.7 percent and -3.0 percent, respectively, to 2.0 percent and -1.7 percent, respectively, and the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.20 percentage points to 0.39 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, December 2. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

November 19, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 0.4 percent on November 19, up from 0.3 percent on November 15. After this morning's new residential construction report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real residential investment growth increased from -2.3 percent to 0.5 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, November 27. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

November 15, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 0.3 percent on November 15, down from 1.0 percent on November 8. After this morning's retail trade releases from the U.S. Census Bureau, and this morning's industrial production report from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.1 percent and -2.3 percent, respectively, to 1.7 percent and -4.4 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, November 19. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

November 8, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 1.0 percent on November 8, unchanged from November 5 after rounding. Following this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to fourth-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.59 percentage points to -0.53 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, November 15. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

November 5, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 1.0 percent on November 5, down from 1.1 percent on November 1. Following data releases by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.2 percent and -2.5 percent, respectively, to 2.1 percent and -2.7 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, November 8. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

November 1, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 1.1 percent on November 1, down from 1.5 percent on October 31. After this morning's release of the employment report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, and the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.3 percent and -0.7 percent, respectively, to 2.2 percent and -2.5 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, November 5. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

October 31, 2019

The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 1.5 percent on October 31. The initial estimate of third-quarter real GDP growth released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on October 30 was 1.9 percent, 0.2 percentage points above the final GDPNow model nowcast released on October 28.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, November 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

October 28, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 1.7 percent on October 28, down from 1.8 percent on October 24. After this morning's Advance Economic Indicators report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 0.0 percent to -1.3 percent, and the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.41 percentage points to -0.26 percentage points.

<>This is the last GDPNow forecast for the third quarter. The first GDPNow forecast for the fourth quarter will be on Thursday, October 31. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

October 24, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 1.8 percent on October 24, unchanged from October 17 after rounding. After this morning's advance durable manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau, this morning's new home sales and construction costs from the U.S. Census Bureau, and the National Association of Realtors' existing-home sales release on Monday, the nowcast of real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 0.3 percent to 0.0 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, October 28. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

October 17, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 1.8 percent on October 17, unchanged from October 16. After this morning’s housing starts report from the U.S. Census Bureau and industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, an increase in the nowcast of real residential investment growth from 4.9 percent to 6.2 percent was offset by a decrease in the nowcast of real business fixed investment growth from -0.9 percent to -1.2 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, October 24. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

October 16, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 1.8 percent on October 16, up from 1.7 percent on October 9. After this morning's retail trade reports from the U.S. Census Bureau and last week's price releases from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, increases in the nowcasts of real personal consumption expenditures growth and real net exports were partially offset by a decrease in the nowcast of real private inventory investment.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, October 17. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

October 9, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 1.7 percent on October 9, down from 1.8 percent on October 4. After this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.12 percentage points to 0.01 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, October 16. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

October 4, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 1.8 percent on October 4, unchanged from October 1. Following data releases by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the Institute for Supply Management, increases in the nowcasts of real personal consumption expenditures growth and real government spending growth were offset by decreases in the nowcasts of real gross private domestic investment growth and real net exports.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, October 9. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

October 1, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 1.8 percent on October 1, down from 2.1 percent on September 27. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real private fixed-investment growth decreased from 2.6 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively, to 2.5 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, October 4. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

September 27, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 2.1 percent on September 27, up from 1.9 percent on September 18. After last week's and this week's data releases by the National Association of Realtors, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth more than offset a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real consumer spending growth.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, October 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

September 18, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 1.9 percent September 18, up from 1.8 percent on September 13. After yesterday's industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and this morning's new residential construction report from the U.S. Census Bureau, increases in the nowcasts of third-quarter real consumer spending growth and third-quarter real private fixed investment growth were slightly offset by a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real net exports.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, September 27. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

September 13, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 1.8 percent on September 13, down from 1.9 percent on September 11. After yesterday’s and this morning's data releases from the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the U.S Census Bureau, slight declines in the nowcasts of third-quarter real consumer spending and government spending growth and third-quarter real net exports were partially offset by a slight increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, September 18. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

September 11, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 1.9 percent on September 11, up from 1.5 percent on September 4. After this morning’s Producer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and this morning’s wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.23 percentage points to -0.18 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, September 13. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

September 4, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 1.5 percent on September 4, down from 1.7 percent on September 3. After this morning’s international trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real nonresidential equipment investment growth decreased from 3.0 percent and -1.7 percent, respectively, to 2.8 percent and -2.4 percent, respectively. The nowcast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.26 percentage points to -0.33 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, September 11. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

September 3, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 1.7 percent on September 3, down from 2.0 percent on August 30. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, and this morning's construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private fixed investment growth decreased from 3.2 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively, to 3.0 percent and -0.2 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Wedesday, September 4. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

August 30, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 2.0 percent on August 30, down from 2.3 percent on August 26. After yesterday's and this morning's releases from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real nonresidential equipment investment growth decreased from 3.4 percent and 4.4 percent, respectively, to 3.2 percent and -0.5 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, September 3. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

August 26, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 2.3 percent on August 26, up from 2.2 percent on August 16. After this morning’s advance durable manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau, a decrease in the nowcast of the contribution of nonresidential equipment investment to the third-quarter real GDP growth from 0.30 percentage points to 0.26 percentage points was offset by an increase in the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to the third-quarter real GDP growth from -0.47 percentage points to -0.43 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, August 30. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

August 16, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 2.2 percent on August 16, unchanged from August 15 after rounding. After this morning's new residential construction report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real residential investment growth increased from -1.2 percent to 0.7 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, August 26. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.