Economic & Financial Highlights

Economic & Financial Highlights tracks data from a number of series.


2016

Feb 04, 2016

Contributions to Real GDP Growth

According to the advance estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the fourth quarter of 2015,real GDP increased at an annualized rate of 0.7 percent, following a 2.0 percent increase in the third quarter of 2015. Much of the increase was attributed to contributions from consumer spending and residential investment, which contributed 1.5 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively. Net exports, private inventory investment, nonresidential structures, and nonresidential equipment and software subtracted 0.5, 0.5, 0.2, and 0.2 percentage points, respectively, from the overall growth rate for the quarter.

Contributions to Real GDP Growth

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Feb 04, 2016

Federal Reserve Liabilities (Sources of Funds)

As of January 27, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet showed total liabilities of $4.5 trillion, reflecting a decrease of $4.4 billion since December 30. Currency in circulation decreased by $126.0 billion, and banks' reserve balances increased by $190.6 billion. Reverse repurchase bank agreements decreased by $189.4 billion during the same time period.

Federal Reserve Liabilities (Sources of Funds)

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Feb 04, 2016

Federal Reserve Assets (Uses of Funds)

As of January 27, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet showed total assets of $4.5 trillion, reflecting a decrease of $4.4 billion since December 30. Agency debt and MBS decreased by $6.3 billion, and other assets increased by $3.5 billion.

Federal Reserve Assets (Uses of Funds)

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Feb 04, 2016

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 0.1 percent in December, month over month. Much of the slowdown in growth in consumer spending was attributed to durable goods and nondurable goods spending, which declined 0.7 and 0.2 percent, respectively, month over month in December. On a year-over-year basis, real PCE grew 2.6 percent.

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

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Feb 04, 2016

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Expectations

The Conference Board's measure of expectations rose from 83.0 in December to 85.9 in January. The University of Michigan's measure remained flat in January at 82.7, remaining above the 2014 average.

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Expectations

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Feb 04, 2016

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Current Situation

The Conference Board's measure of current conditions remained flat in January from December at 116.4. The University of Michigan's measure declined to 106.4 in January from 108.1 in December. Both indexes have returned to prerecession levels.

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Current Situation

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Feb 04, 2016

Disposable Personal Income and Personal Saving Rate

The personal saving rate (savings as a percent of disposable income) was 5.5 percent in December, increasing by 0.2 percentage points from November. Real disposable personal income rose 3.1 percent in December from a year ago.

Disposable Personal Income and Personal Saving Rate

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Feb 02, 2016

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

In January, the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index ticked up to 48.2 from December's reading of 48.0. Despite the increase, the index remained in contractionary territory for the fourth consecutive month. The new orders and production subindexes also rose from the previous month, with both subindexes climbing back into expansionary territory. The employment subindex fell to its lowest level since June 2009, suggesting that manufacturing payrolls decreased during January. The rise in new orders and production could be a positive sign for growth in the near term, but the overall ISM index reading continues to suggest weakness in the manufacturing sector.

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

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Feb 02, 2016

PCE Price Index Components

Among the PCE price index components, year over year, the nondurable goods subindex was down 2.5 percent in December, up from a decline of 3.0 percent in November. The durable goods subindex was down 1.4 percent year over year in December, up from a decline of 1.8 percent in November and consistent with the long-term deflationary trend in the durable goods market. The services subindex rose 1.9 percent year over year, unchanged from the previous three months. Services account for nearly two thirds of personal expenditures and have experienced relatively stable inflation of around 2 percent since 2010.

PCE Price Index Components

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Feb 02, 2016

Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index

The headline personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose 0.6 percent year over year in December, up from 0.4 percent in November. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 1.4 percent year over year in December, unchanged from the previous month. At a one-month annualized rate, the headline PCE price index fell 1.1 percent in December, a decrease from the 0.8 percent reading in November, and the core figure (one-month annualized rate) rose 0.5 percent, down from 1.9 percent in November.

Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index

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Feb 02, 2016

Commodity Price Index - All Commodities

The Commodity Research Bureau's all commodities price index fell 0.5 percent month over month in January. The subindex for foodstuffs (such as corn, coffee, and sugar) fell 4.0 percent, and the subindex for metals (such as aluminum, lead, and copper) rose 0.5 percent, and the subindex for livestock (such as cattle and hogs) rose 1.3 percent. Since January 2015, the all commodities price index is down 12.1 percent. The all commodities index continues to be well below its April 2011 peak level of 576.

Commodity Price Index - All Commodities

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Feb 01, 2016

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims

In the week ending January 23, initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased to 278,000, which is 16,000 fewer than the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 293,000. The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, was 283,000, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims

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Jan 29, 2016

Core Capital Goods

In December, new orders for core capital goods (nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft) fell 4.3 percent compared with November, and the previous month's reading was revised down to a 1.1 percent decline. Shipments for these goods also fell month over month, decreasing 0.2 percent in December. Year-over-year growth rates for shipments and new orders remain weak. Overall, the latest data continue to indicate weak conditions in the manufacturing sector and suggest a weak outlook for equipment spending in the near term.

Core Capital Goods

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Jan 29, 2016

Sales and Months' Supply of New Single-Family Homes

New single-family home sales increased 10.8 percent on a month-over-month basis, from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 491,000 in November to 544,000 in December. The months' supply of available new single-family homes dropped from 5.6 months in November to 5.2 months in December.

Sales and Months' Supply of New Single-Family Homes

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Jan 29, 2016

Sales and Months' Supply of Existing Single-Family Homes

Existing single-family home sales increased 16.1 percent month over month, from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.150 million in November to 4.820 million in December. The months' supply of available existing homes for sale fell from 5.2 months in November to 3.9 months in December.

Sales and Months' Supply of Existing Single-Family Homes

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Jan 29, 2016

U.S. Single-Family Home Sales

New single-family home sales increased 9.9 percent from the year-ago level, and existing single-family home sales increased 7.1 percent during the same period.

U.S. Single-Family Home Sales

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Jan 29, 2016

U.S. House Prices

U.S. house prices increased between 5 and 6 percent in November on a year-over-year basis.

U.S. House Prices

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Jan 21, 2016

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Headline consumer prices rose 0.7 percent on a year-over-year basis in December, up from a 0.5 percent year-over-year increase in November. On a one-month annualized basis, headline consumer price inflation decreased from 0.3 percent in November to -1.3 percent in December. The deceleration was partially the result of the decrease in the energy commodities subindex (gasoline and fuel oil), which fell 38.0 percent on a one-month annualized basis in December. The core measure, which excludes food and energy, was up 2.1 percent year over year, the highest 12-month change since May 2014.

Housing Starts

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Jan 20, 2016

Housing Starts

Total and single-family housing start activity softened a bit between November and December. Despite this month-to-month softening, total housing starts increased 6.4 percent, and single-family starts increased 6.1 percent on a year-over-year basis.

Housing Starts

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Jan 20, 2016

Industrial Production

The industrial production (IP) index fell 0.4 percent in December compared with the previous month. The decline in the overall index was a result of weakness in all subindexes. Compared with November, the manufacturing subindex declined 0.1 percent largely as a result of a slowdown in motor vehicles production, which fell 1.7 percent month over month. With unseasonably warmer temperatures across much of the country, the utilities subindex declined 2.0 percent during the December after falling 5.0 percent in November. The mining subindex fell for the fourth consecutive month, dropping 0.8 percent. Mining most likely continues to be heavily affected by the slowdown in the energy sector. Year over year, total IP is down 1.8 percent.

Industrial Production

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Jan 14, 2016

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims

In the week ending January 9, initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 284,000—7,000 more than the previous week's unrevised number. The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, was 278,750—up 3,000 from the previous week's unrevised average. The claims level and four-week average have moved upward over the last few months, though seasonal adjustments following the holiday season may be causing volatility in the data.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims

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Jan 12, 2016

Average Hourly Earnings

Average hourly earnings fell 1 cent from November to $25.24 in December. During the year, average hourly earnings rose by 2.5 percent in December, the strongest growth pace in the past five years.

Average Hourly Earnings

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Jan 12, 2016

Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment

December job growth was concentrated in professional and business services (up 73,000), health care and social assistance (up 52,600), construction (up 45,000), and food services and drinking places (up 37,000). Mining employment continued to decline (down 8,000).
Over 2015, the biggest net contributors to payrolls were professional and business services (up 605,000), health care and social assistance (up 592,000), and food services and drinking places (up 357,300).

Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment

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Jan 12, 2016

Payroll Employment Changes

U.S. employers added 292,000 net payrolls in December. During the 12 months ending in December, monthly job gains averaged 221,000.
The past two months were revised up by 50,000—October was revised upward from 298,000 to 307,000, and the change for November was revised from 211,000 to 252,000.

Payroll Employment Changes

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Jan 12, 2016

Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates

The U3 civilian unemployment rate held steady at 5.0 percent for the third month in a row. The broader U6 measure, which includes people marginally attached to the labor force and those working part-time for economic reasons, also held at 9.9 percent. The labor force participation rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 62.6 percent. From a year earlier, the U3 rate was down by 0.6 percentage point, the U6 rate was down 1.3 percentage points, and the labor force participation rate was down 0.1 percentage point.

Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates

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Jan 12, 2016

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims

In the week ending January 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 277,000, which is 10,000 fewer than the previous week's unrevised number. The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, was 275,750—down 1,250 from the previous week's unrevised average. The trend in claims remained consistent with a strengthening labor market.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims

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Jan 12, 2016

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

The economic policy uncertainty index, which measures policy-related economic uncertainty, rose 10 points to 103 in December from 93 in November. The index remains well below its postrecession high of 245 in August 2011.

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

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Jan 11, 2016

PCE Price Index Components

Among the PCE price index components, year over year, the nondurable goods subindex was down 3.1 percent in November, an increase from October's reading of a decline of 3.7 percent. The durable goods subindex was down 1.7 percent year over year in November, up from the 2.0 percent decline in October and consistent with the long-term deflationary trend in the durable goods market. The services subindex rose 1.9 percent year over year, unchanged from the previous two months. Services account for nearly two thirds of personal expenditures and have experienced relatively stable inflation of around 2 percent since 2010.

PCE Price Index Components

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Jan 11, 2016

Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index

The headline personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose 0.4 percent year over year in November, up from 0.2 percent in October. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 1.3 percent year over year in October, unchanged from the previous three months. At a one-month annualized rate, the headline PCE price index rose 0.3 percent in November, a decrease from the 0.7 percent reading in October, and the core figure (one-month annualized rate) rose 1.4 percent, up from 0.4 percent in October.

Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index

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Jan 11, 2016

International Trade

The nominal trade deficit narrowed in November to $42.4 billion from a revised $44.6 billion in October as imports fell more than exports. The decline in imports was led by decreases in consumer goods, and the decline in exports was spread broadly across major categories. Year over year, nominal exports and imports continued to decline in November, declining 7.1 and 4.9 percent, respectively.

International Trade

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Jan 11, 2016

Disposable Personal Income and Personal Saving Rate

The personal saving rate (savings as a percent of disposable income) was 5.5 percent in November, remaining essentially flat from October. Real disposable personal income rose 3.5 percent in November from a year ago.

Disposable Personal Income and Personal Saving Rate

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Jan 11, 2016

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 0.3 percent in November, month over month. Much of the slowdown in growth in consumer spending was attributed to services spending, which declined 0.24, year over year. Durable goods and nondurable goods spending rose 1.1 and 0.9 percent, respectively, month over month in November. On a year-over-year basis, real PCE grew 2.5 percent.

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

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Jan 11, 2016

Contributions to Real GDP Growth

According to the third estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the third quarter of 2015, real GDP increased at an annualized rate of 2.0 percent, following a 3.9 percent increase in the second quarter of 2015. Much of the increase was attributed to contributions from consumer spending and nonresidential equipment and software, which contributed 2.0 and 0.6 percentage points, respectively, to the third quarter's growth. Private inventory investment, nonresidential structures and net exports subtracted 0.7, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points, respectively, from the overall growth rate for the quarter.

Contributions to Real GDP Growth

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Jan 08, 2016

Commodity Price Index - All Commodities

The Commodity Research Bureau's all commodities price index fell 1.7 percent month over month in December. The subindex for livestock (such as cattle and hogs) fell 3.6 percent, metals (such as copper, lead, and steel) fell 2.5 percent, and foodstuffs (such as sugar, corn, and butter) fell 3.5 percent. Since December 2014, the all commodities price index is down 14.9 percent. The all commodities index continues to be well below its April 2011 peak level of 576.

Commodity Price Index – All Commodities

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Jan 08, 2016

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

In December, the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index fell to its lowest level since June 2009 with a reading of 48.2. After 34 consecutive months of expansion, the ISM index has now indicated contraction in the manufacturing sector for the second month in a row. The overall decline was headlined by the employment subindex, which fell 3.2 points to a reading of 48.1. All other major subindexes also indicated contraction with the exception of supplier delivery times. According to the ISM report, 10 out of 18 industries reported contraction during December, with only six reporting expansion. The fall in the ISM index continues to suggest that the manufacturing sector is most likely being dampened by the strong dollar and weak global demand.

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

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Jan 06, 2016

The View from the Fed: Summary of Economic Projections (Unemployment Rate)

The December Summary of Economic Projections for the unemployment rate showed a central tendency of 5.0 percent for 2015. The 2016 and 2017 central tendency projections decreased at the upper and lower bounds since the September 17 projection. The central tendency of the unemployment rate in 2018 decreased at the lower bound and remained unchanged at the upper bound. The longer-run projection decreased slightly at the lower bound and remained unchanged at the upper bound of the central tendency from the September projection.


The View from the Fed: Summary of Economic Projections (Unemployment Rate)

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Jan 06, 2016

The View from the Fed: The Summary of Economic Projections (PCE Inflation)

The December Summary of Economic Projections for 2015 personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation showed the central tendency projection at 0.4 percent. The central tendency for the 2016 projection decreased at the lower and upper bound from the September 17 projection. The 2017 central tendency projection remained unchanged from the September projection. The central tendency of PCE inflation in 2018 is 1.9 percent at the lower bound and 2.0 percent at the upper bound. The longer-run central tendency projection remained unchanged from the September 17 projection of 2.0 percent.


The View from the Fed: The Summary of Economic Projections (PCE Inflation)

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Jan 06, 2016

The View from the Fed: Summary of Economic Projections (Change in Real GDP)

The December Summary of Economic Projections for 2015 gross domestic product (GDP) growth showed the central tendency projection at 2.1 percent for 2015. The central tendency of GDP growth in 2016 increased at the lower bound by 0.1 percentage points, and the upper bound decreased by 0.1 percentage points since the September 17 projection. The central tendency for 2017 remained unchanged at the lower bound and decreased by 0.1 percentage points in the upper bound. The GDP central tendency projection for 2018, as well as the longer-run projection, remained unchanged from the September 17 projection.


The View from the Fed: Summary of Economic Projections (Change in Real GDP)

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Jan 04, 2016

PCE Price Index Components

Among the PCE price index components, year over year, the nondurable goods subindex was down 3.1 percent in November, an increase from October’s reading of a decline of 3.7 percent. The durable goods subindex was down 1.7 percent year over year in November, up from the 2.0 percent decline in October and consistent with the long-term deflationary trend in the durable goods market. The services subindex rose 1.9 percent year over year, unchanged from the previous two months. Services account for nearly two thirds of personal expenditures and have experienced relatively stable inflation of around 2 percent since 2010.


PCE Price Index Components

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Jan 04, 2016

Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index

The headline personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose 0.4 percent year over year in November, up from 0.2 percent in October. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 1.3 percent year over year in October, unchanged from the previous three months. At a one-month annualized rate, the headline PCE price index rose 0.3 percent in November, a decrease from the 0.7 percent reading in October, and the core figure (one-month annualized rate) rose 1.4 percent, up from 0.4 percent in October.


Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index

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