Economic & Financial Highlights

Economic & Financial Highlights tracks data from a number of series.


2016

May 24, 2016

Sales and Months' Supply of New Single-Family Homes

New single-family home sales increased 16.6 percent on a month-over-month basis, from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 531,000 in March to 619,000 in April. The months' supply of available new single-family homes dropped from 5.5 months in March to 4.7 months in April.

Sales and Months' Supply of New Single-Family Homes

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May 24, 2016

Sales and Months' Supply of Existing Single-Family Homes

Existing single-family home sales increased 0.6 percent month over month, from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.780 million in March to 4.10 million in April. The months' supply of available existing homes for sale increased slightly from 4.3 months in March to 4.7 months in April.

Sales and Months' Supply of Existing Single-Family Homes

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May 24, 2016

U.S. Single-Family Home Sales

New single-family home sales increased 23.8 percent from the year-ago level, and existing single-family home sales increased 6.2 percent during the same period.

U.S. Single-Family Home Sales

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May 23, 2016

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims

In the week ending May 14, initial claims for unemployment insurance declined by 16,000 to 278,000 (the biggest drop since early February and following three straight weeks of increases). The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, rose by 7,500 to 275,750. Claims have remained below 300,000 for 63 straight weeks, the longest such stretch since 1973.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims

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May 17, 2016

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Headline consumer prices rose 1.1 percent on a year-over-year basis in April, up from a 0.9 percent year-over-year increase in March. On a one-month annualized basis, headline consumer price inflation increased from 1.1 percent in March to 5.0 percent in April, the largest increase in more than three years. The acceleration was partially the result of the increase in the energy commodities subindex (gasoline and fuel oil), which rose 146.64 percent on a one-month annualized basis in April. The core measure, which excludes food and energy, was up 2.1 percent year over year.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

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May 17, 2016

Retail Sales

Total retail sales rose 1.3 percent in April from the previous month. Core retail sales—excluding autos, gas, and building materials—and retail sales (excluding autos) each rose 0.8 percent from March. Month over month, motor vehicle and parts dealer sales rose 3.2 percent, and gasoline station sales rose by 2.2 percent. On a year-over-year basis, growth in total retail sales was 3.0 percent in April.

Retail Sales

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May 17, 2016

U.S. Housing Starts

Total housing starts increased 11.9 percent from the year-earlier level when tracked as a 12-month moving average. Multifamily starts were up 8.9 percent using the same lens, and single-family starts increased 13.4 percent during the same period.

U.S. Housing Starts

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May 13, 2016

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims

In the week ending May 7, initial claims for unemployment insurance climbed 20,000 to a 14-month high of 294,000 (after increasing by 17,000 the week prior). The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, rose by 10,250 to 268,250. One major factor that contributed to the increase in claims last week was a nearly 15,000 increase from nonteacher school employees in New York (who are permitted to file for unemployment when schools are closed for a week or two). However, despite the increases, claims have been below 300,000 for more than a year, extending the longest such streak since 1973.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims

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May 13, 2016

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

The economic policy uncertainty index, which measures policy-related economic uncertainty, fell 20 points to 98 in April from 118 in March. The index remains well below its postrecession high of 245 in August 2011.

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

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May 09, 2016

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

In April, the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index fell to 50.8 from the previous month's reading of 51.8. Despite the decrease, the index remained above the 50-point threshold that indicates expansion for the second consecutive month. The new orders subindex remained relatively strong with a 55.8 reading, as did the production subindex with a 54.2 reading. Although the employment subindex rose slightly from the previous month, it remained in contractionary territory for the fifth consecutive month, which suggests that manufacturing payrolls continue to shrink. The prices subindex increased 7.2 points over March and has now climbed 20.5 points over the last two months. Of the 18 manufacturing industries surveyed, 11 reported growth in April.

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

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May 09, 2016

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Expectations

The Conference Board's measure of expectations declined from 83.6 in March to 79.3 in April. The University of Michigan’s measure declined in April to 77.6 from 81.5 in March.

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Expectations

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May 09, 2016

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Current Situation

The Conference Board's measure of current conditions rose to 116.4 in April from 114.9 in March. The University of Michigan's measure rose to 106.7 in April from 105.6 in March. Both indexes have returned to prerecession levels.

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Current Situation

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May 09, 2016

Disposable Personal Income and Personal Saving Rate

The personal saving rate (savings as a percent of disposable income) rose slightly from 5.1 percent in February to 5.4 percent in March. Real disposable personal income rose 3.1 percent in March from year-ago levels.

Disposable Personal Income and Personal Saving Rate

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May 09, 2016

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) was flat in March on a month-over-month basis. Although nondurable goods spending rose 0.7 percent month over month, spending on durable goods and services declined. On a year-over-year basis, real PCE grew 2.6 percent.

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

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May 09, 2016

Contributions to Real GDP Growth

According to the advance estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first quarter of 2016, real GDP increased at an annualized rate of 0.5 percent, following a 1.4 percent increase in the fourth quarter of 2015. Much of the increase was attributed to contributions from consumer spending and residential investment, which contributed 1.3 and 0.5 percentage points, respectively. Nonresidential equipment and software each subtracted 0.5 percentage points from the overall rate for the quarter. Net exports, nonresidential structures, and private inventory investments each subtracted 0.3 percentage points.

Contributions to Real GDP Growth

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May 09, 2016

Federal Reserve Liabilities (Sources of Funds)

As of April 27, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet showed total liabilities of $4.5 trillion, reflecting a decrease of $7.6 billion since March 30. Other Liabilities and Bank Reserve Balances increased by $72.8 billion and $17.1 billion, respectively. Reverse Repurchase Bank Agreements decreased by $102.6 billion during the same time period.

Federal Reserve Liabilities (Sources of Funds)

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May 09, 2016

Federal Reserve Assets (Uses of Funds)

As of April 27, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet showed total assets of $4.5 trillion, reflecting a decrease of $7.6 billion since March 30. Agency Debt & MBS decreased by $12.0 billion, and Other Assets increased by $4.3 billion.

Federal Reserve Assets (Uses of Funds)

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May 05, 2016

International Trade

The nominal trade deficit narrowed sharply in March to $40.4 billion from $47 billion in February as imports fell more than exports. The decline in imports was led by a sharp drop in imports of consumer goods (mainly toys and apparel), following a surge in February. Consumer goods also drove the decline in exports. Both exports and imports were lower in March compared with a year ago.

International Trade

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May 04, 2016

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

In April, the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index fell to 50.8 from the previous month's reading of 51.8. Despite the decrease, the index remained above the 50-point threshold that indicates expansion for the second consecutive month. The new orders subindex remained relatively strong with a 55.8 reading, as did the production subindex with a 54.2 reading. Although the employment subindex rose slightly from the previous month, it remained in contractionary territory for the fifth consecutive month, which suggests that manufacturing payrolls continue to shrink. The prices subindex increased 7.2 points over March and has now climbed 20.5 points over the last two months. Of the 18 manufacturing industries surveyed, 11 reported growth in April.

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

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Apr 29, 2016

PCE Price Index Components

Among the PCE price index components, year over year, the nondurable goods subindex was minus 1.9 percent in March, down from minus 1.4 percent in February. The durable goods subindex was minus 1.6 percent year over year in March, down from minus 1.4 percent in February and consistent with the long-term deflationary trend in the durable goods market. The services subindex rose 2.1 percent year over year in March, unchanged from February. Services account for nearly two thirds of personal expenditures and have experienced relatively stable inflation of around 2 percent since 2010.

PCE Price Index Components

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Apr 29, 2016

Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index

The headline personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose 0.8 percent year over year in March, down from 1.0 percent in February. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 1.6 percent year over year in March, down slightly from February's 1.7 percent increase. On a one-month annualized rate basis, the headline PCE price index was 0.6 percent in March, up from minus 1.2 percent in February, and the core PCE price index (one-month annualized rate) was 0.6 percent, down from 2.0 percent in February.

Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index

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Apr 28, 2016

Core Capital Goods

In March, shipments for core capital goods (nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft) rose 0.3 percent month over month, and new orders for these goods were flat. Year-over-year growth rates for shipments and new orders remain negative. Following the considerable month-over-month declines in February, the March data suggest some possible firming, but only mild improvement for business investment in equipment over the near term.

Core Capital Goods

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Apr 27, 2016

U.S. House Prices

U.S. house prices increased between 5 percent and 7 percent in February on a year-over-year basis.

U.S. House Prices

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Apr 22, 2016

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims

Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 6,000 to 247,000 in the week ending April 16, the lowest number since November 1973. The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, fell 4,500 to 260,500. Unemployment claims data continue to point to an improving labor market.


Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims

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Apr 19, 2016

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

The economic policy uncertainty index fell 33 points to 118 in March from 151 in February. The index, which measures policy-related economic uncertainty, remains well below its postrecession high of 245 in August 2011.

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

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Apr 19, 2016

Industrial Production

In March, the industrial production (IP) index fell 0.6 percent from February. The decline in overall IP was broad based. The manufacturing subindex declined 0.3 percent from the previous month, largely as a result of a 1.6 percent decline in motor vehicles and parts production and a 1.7 percent decline in electrical equipment, appliances, and components production. However, the manufacturing subindex is up 0.4 percent year over year. The mining subindex fell for the tenth consecutive month, declining 2.9 percent from February and is down 12.9 percent year over year. The utilities subindex fell 1.2 percent from February and is down 7.7 percent year over year. Overall, the industrial production index is down 2.0 percent year over year.

Industrial Production

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Apr 19, 2016

Housing Starts

Total housing starts increased 14.2.9 percent in March from the year-earlier level. Multifamily starts were down 1.8 percent, and single-family starts jumped 22.6 percent during the same period.

Housing Starts

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Apr 14, 2016

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Headline consumer prices rose 0.9 percent on a year-over-year basis in March, down from a 1.0 percent year-over-year increase in February. On a one-month annualized basis, headline consumer price inflation increased from a minus 2.0 percent in February to 1.1 percent in March. The core measure, which excludes food and energy, was up 2.2 percent year-over-year.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

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Apr 13, 2016

Retail Sales

Total retail sales declined 0.3 percent in March from the previous month. Core retail sales—excluding autos, gas, and building materials—remained essentially flat while retail sales (excluding autos) rose by 0.2 percent from February. Month over month, motor vehicle and parts dealer sales declined 2.1 percent, and building materials and garden equipment sales rose by 1.4 percent, and health and personal care store sales rose by 1.0 percent. On a year-over-year basis, growth in total retail sales in March was 1.7 percent.

Retail Sales

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Apr 08, 2016

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims

In the week ending April 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped 9,000 from the previous week to 267,000. The four-week-moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, rose 3,500 to 266,750. Applications for unemployment benefits have been below 300,000 for 57 consecutive weeks, the longest stretch since 1973.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims

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Apr 06, 2016

International Trade

The nominal trade deficit widened for the third consecutive month in February to $47.1 billion from $45.9 billion in January as imports increased more than exports. Nominal exports rose 1 percent after four months of declines, led by increases in consumer goods exports. Exports of autos and agricultural products also rose in February. Meanwhile, imports increased 1.3 percent. Consumer goods imports rose strongly, with notable increases in pharmaceutical products and toys and sporting goods. Year over year, nominal exports fell 4.2 percent in February, while imports eked out a 0.3 percent increase. Real (adjusted for price changes) goods exports increased 0.5 percent compared to a year ago after falling for several months. Excluding oil, real goods imports accelerated to a 7.1 percent annual rate—the highest pace since March of last year.

International Trade

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Apr 04, 2016

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

In March, the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index increased to 51.8 from February's reading of 49.5. The March index reading indicated expansion in the manufacturing sector for the first time since August 2015. The most forward-looking indicator, the new orders subindex, increased to a 16-month high of 58.3, and the production subindex rose to a 10-month high of 55.3. The prices subindex increased 13 points from the previous month to 51.5, indicating an increase in raw material prices for the first time since October 2014. The employment subindex remained subdued with a reading of 48.1, which suggests manufacturing payrolls shrank during March. Of the 18 manufacturing industries surveyed, only six reported growth in employment. Overall, the March report hints at some improvement in business activity for the manufacturing sector.

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

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Apr 01, 2016

Average Hourly Earnings

Average hourly earnings increased by 7 cents in March to $25.43, following a 2-cent decline in February. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.3 percent.

Average Hourly Earnings

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Apr 01, 2016

Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment

March net job growth was concentrated in retail trade (up by 47,700), health care and social assistance (gaining 44,000), leisure and hospitality (up by 40,000), and construction (gaining 37,000). The sharpest declines were in manufacturing (losing 29,000) and mining (down by 12,000). Over the last 12 months, the goods-producing subsectors of manufacturing and mining shed 43,000 and 155,000 net payrolls, respectively. Construction, the third main goods-producing subsector, added 285,000 over the same period, keeping the sector in mostly positive territory.

Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment

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Apr 01, 2016

Payroll Employment Changes

U.S. employers added 215,000 net payrolls in March. Over the 12 months ending in March, monthly job gains averaged 234,000.

The past two months were revised downward 1,000; January was revised down from 172,000 to 168,000, and February revised up from 242,000 to 245,000.

Payroll Employment Changes

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Apr 01, 2016

Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates

In March, the U3 civilian unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 5.0 percent from the previous month as the labor force increased by 396,000, outpacing a 246,000 gain in civilian employment. The broader U6 measure, which includes persons marginally attached to the labor force and persons working part-time for economic reasons, also rose 0.1 percentage point to 9.8 percent. The labor force participation rate also edged up to a 24-month high of 63.0 percent.

Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates

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Apr 01, 2016

Federal Reserve Liabilities (Sources of Funds)

As of March 30, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet showed total liabilities of $4.5 trillion, reflecting a decrease of $7.5 billion since February 24. Currency in circulation and reverse repurchase agreements increased by $12.8 billion and $83.0 billion, respectively. Banks’ reserve balances decreased by $90.0 billion during the same time period.

Federal Reserve Liabilities (Sources of Funds)

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Apr 01, 2016

Federal Reserve Assets (Uses of Funds)

As of March 30, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet showed total liabilities of $4.5 trillion, reflecting a decrease of $7.5 billion since February 24. Currency in circulation and reverse repurchase agreements increased by $12.8 billion and $83.0 billion, respectively. Banks' reserve balances decreased by $90.0 billion during the same time period.

Federal Reserve Liabilities (Sources of Funds)

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Apr 01, 2016

Commodity Price Index – All Commodities

The Commodity Research Bureau's all commodities price index rose 2.8 percent month over month in March. The subindex for foodstuffs (such as corn, coffee, and sugar) rose 1.9 percent, while the subindex for metals (such as aluminum, lead, and copper) rose 8.0 percent. The subindex for livestock (such as cattle and hogs) rose 5.0 percent. Since March 2015, the all commodities price index is down 5.0 percent. The all commodities index continues to be well below its April 2011 peak level of 576.

Commodity Price Index – All Commodities

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Apr 01, 2016

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims

In the week ending March 26, initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 11,000 from the previous week to 276,000. The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, rose 3,500 to 263,250. Applications for unemployment benefits have been below 300,000 for 55 weeks, the longest such stretch since 1973 and a sign of continued labor market strengthening.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims

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Mar 30, 2016

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Expectations

The Conference Board's measure of expectations rose from 79.9 in February to 84.7 in March. The University of Michigan's measure declined slightly in March to 80.0 from 81.9 in February.

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Expectations

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Mar 30, 2016

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Current Situation

The Conference Board's measure of current conditions declined to 113.5 in March from 115.0 in February. The University of Michigan's measure declined to 105.6 in March from 106.8 in February. Both indexes have returned to prerecession levels.

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Current Situation

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Mar 30, 2016

Disposable Personal Income and Personal Saving Rate

The personal saving rate (savings as a percent of disposable income) rose in February from January to 5.4 percent. Real disposable personal income rose 2.7 percent in February from year-ago levels.

Disposable Personal Income and Personal Saving Rate

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Mar 30, 2016

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 0.2 percent in February, month over month. Much of the growth in consumer spending was attributed to increases in durable goods and services spending, both of which rose 0.3 percent in February, month over month. On a year-over-year basis, real PCE grew 2.8 percent.

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

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Mar 29, 2016

U.S. House Prices

U.S. house prices increased between 5 and 7 percent in January on a year-over-year basis.

U.S. House Prices

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Mar 29, 2016

PCE Price Index Components

Among the PCE price index components, year over year, the nondurable goods subindex was minus 1.4 percent in February, down from minus 0.3 percent in January. The durable goods subindex was minus 1.5 percent year over year in February, down from minus 1.1 percent in January and consistent with the long-term deflationary trend in the durable goods market. The services subindex rose 2.1 percent year over year in February, unchanged from January. Services account for nearly two-thirds of personal expenditures and have experienced relatively stable inflation of around 2 percent since 2010.

PCE Price Index Components

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Mar 29, 2016

Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index

The headline personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose 1.0 percent year over year in February, down from 1.2 percent in January. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 1.7 percent year over year in February, unchanged from January. On a one-month annualized rate basis, the headline PCE price index was down 1.3 percent in February, a decline of 1.4 percent in January, and the core PCE price index (one-month annualized rate) rose 1.8 percent, down from 3.3 percent in January.

Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index

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Mar 28, 2016

Contributions to Real GDP Growth

According to the third estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the fourth quarter of 2015, real GDP increased at an annualized rate of 1.4 percent, following a 2.0 percent increase in the third quarter of 2015. Much of the increase was attributed to contributions from consumer spending and residential investment, which contributed 1.7 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively. Private inventory investment subtracted 0.2 percentage points from the overall rate for the quarter while net exports, nonresidential structures, and nonresidential equipment and intellectual property products each subtracted 0.1 percentage points.

Contributions to Real GDP Growth

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Mar 28, 2016

Core Capital Goods

In February, shipments for core capital goods (nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft) fell 1.1 percent month over month, and new orders for these goods declined 1.8 percent. Year-over-year growth rates for shipments and new orders also remain weak. The subdued February data suggest that, despite the sharp monthly increase in new orders in January, business investment in equipment will most likely remain restrained for the foreseeable future.

Core Capital Goods

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Mar 23, 2016

Sales and Months' Supply of New Single-Family Homes

New single-family home sales increased 2.0 percent on a month-over-month basis, from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 502,000 in January to 512,000 in February. The months' supply of available new single-family homes remained unchanged at 5.6 months in February.

Sales and Months' Supply of New Single-Family Homes

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Mar 23, 2016

Sales and Months' Supply of Existing Single-Family Homes

Existing single-family home sales fell 7.2 percent month over month, from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.860 million in January to 4.510 million in February. The months' supply of available existing homes for sale increased from 4.0 months in January to 4.4 months in February.

Sales and Months' Supply of Existing Single-Family Homes

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Mar 23, 2016

U.S. Single-Family Home Sales

New single-family home sales fell 6.1 percent from the year-ago level, and existing single-family home sales increased 2.0 percent during the same period.

U.S. Single-Family Home Sales

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Mar 17, 2016

Industrial Production

In February, the industrial production (IP) index decreased 0.5 percent from January. The decline in overall IP was mostly a result of decreases in the mining and utilities subindexes. Mining fell 1.4 percent month over month, and utilities fell 4.0 percent. The sharp decline in utilities was partially the result of warmer-than-normal temperatures curbing the demand for heat in much of the country. The manufacturing subindex rose 0.2 percent from the previous month on the heels of healthy durable goods production. With the exception of wood products, the indexes for most major durable goods industries either increased or remained unchanged month over month. Year over year, the manufacturing subindex is up 1.8 percent, and mining is down almost 10.0 percent and utilities are down 9.3 percent. Oil and gas well drilling continues to be particularly weak and has fallen almost 60.0 percent since February 2015. Overall IP is down 1.0 percent from a year ago.

Industrial Production

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Mar 17, 2016

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims

In the week ending March 12, initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 7,000 from the previous week to 265,000. The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, inched up by 750 to 268,000. Claims have now been below the 300,000 threshold for a little over a year, the longest such run since the early 1970s.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims

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Mar 16, 2016

Housing Starts

Total housing starts increased 30.9 percent from the year-earlier level, and single-family starts jumped 37.0 percent during the same period.

Housing Starts

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Mar 16, 2016

Retail Sales

Total retail sales declined 0.2 percent in February from the previous month. Core retail sales (excluding autos, gas, and building materials) rose 0.2 percent, and retail sales (excluding autos) declined by 0.1 percent from January. Month over month, gasoline station sales declined 4.4 percent, and building materials and garden equipment sales rose by 1.6 percent and sporting goods, hobby, book, and music store sales rose by 1.2 percent. On a year-over-year basis, growth in total retail sales was 3.1 percent in February.

Retail Sales

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Mar 11, 2016

Unemployment

In the week ending March 5, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell by 18,000 to 259,000—their lowest level since October 2015. The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, fell by 2,500 to 267,500—its lowest average in nearly five months as well. Claims have now been below the 300,000 threshold for a year—the longest such run since the early 1970s.

Unemployment (four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted, thousands)

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Mar 11, 2016

International Trade

The nominal trade deficit widened in January to $45.7 billion from a $44.7 billion in December as exports fell more than imports. Year over year, nominal exports fell 6.6 percent in January, and imports were down 4.5 percent. Real (adjusted for price changes) goods exports decreased 3.8 percent, which was the largest decline since 2009. Excluding oil, real goods imports were up a modest 1.7 percent compared with a year ago.

International Trade; monthly, seasonally adjusted

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Mar 04, 2016

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims

In the week ending February 27, initial claims for unemployment insurance increased by 6,000 from the previous week to 278,000. The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, fell by 1,750 to 270,250. Claims have remained below 300,000 for 52 straight weeks, which is the longest stretch since the 1970s and consistent with a tightening labor market.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims

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Mar 02, 2016

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

In February, the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index rose to 49.5 from January's reading of 48.2. The February reading marked the fifth consecutive month the index has been below 50, which indicates a contraction in the manufacturing sector. The new orders and production subindex readings were slightly above 50, which suggests that new orders and production levels increased for the month of February. However, the employment subindex remained below 50 for the third consecutive month, indicating that factory payrolls were still shrinking. Overall, the ISM report continued to suggest that manufacturing activity remains subdued, which is most likely a result of the strong dollar, weak global demand, and cutbacks in the oil and gas industries.

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

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Mar 02, 2016

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 0.4 percent in January, month over month. Much of the growth in consumer spending was attributed to durable goods and nondurable goods spending, which rose 1.1 and 0.4 percent, respectively, month over month in January. On a year-over-year basis, real PCE grew 2.9 percent.

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

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Mar 02, 2016

Contributions to Real GDP Growth

According to the second estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the fourth quarter of 2015, real GDP increased at an annualized rate of 1.0 percent, following a 2.0 percent increase in the third quarter of 2015. Much of the increase was attributed to contributions from consumer spending and residential investment, which contributed 1.4 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively. Net exports, nonresidential structures, private inventory investment, and nonresidential equipment and software subtracted 0.3, 0.2, 0.1 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, from the overall growth rate for the quarter.

Contributions to Real GDP Growth

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Mar 02, 2016

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Expectations

The Conference Board's measure of expectations declined from 85.3 in January to 78.9 in February. The University of Michigan's measure declined slightly in February to 81.9 from 82.7 in January.

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Expectations

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Mar 02, 2016

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Current Situation

The Conference Board's measure of current conditions declined to 112.1 in February from 116.6 in January. The University of Michigan’s measure remained essentially flat in February. Both indexes have returned to prerecession levels.

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Current Situation

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Mar 02, 2016

Disposable Personal Income and Personal Saving Rate

The personal saving rate (savings as a percent of disposable income) remained flat in January from December at 5.2 percent. Real disposable personal income rose 2.8 percent in January from a year ago.

Disposable Personal Income and Personal Saving Rate

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Mar 02, 2016

Commodity Price Index - All Commodities

The Commodity Research Bureau's all commodities price index rose 2.0 percent month over month in February, the first increase in this index since May 2015. The subindex for foodstuffs (such as corn, coffee, and sugar) rose 0.7 percent, and the subindex for metals (such as aluminum, lead, and copper) rose 5.8 percent. The subindex for livestock (such as cattle and hogs) rose 5.3 percent. Since February 2015, the all commodities price index is down 8.4 percent. The all commodities index continues to be well below its April 2011 peak level of 576.

Commodity Price Index – All Commodities

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Feb 29, 2016

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims

In the week ending December 12, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 271,000, a decline of 11,000 from the previous week's unrevised level. The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, was 270,500, which is down 250 from the previous week's unrevised average. Claims have remained below 300,000 for nine months, a sign of continued strengthening in the labor market.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims

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Feb 29, 2016

Core Capital Goods

In January, new orders for core capital goods (nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft) rose 3.9 percent month over month. The January increase in new orders was the largest monthly increase since June 2014. January shipments for these goods declined 0.4 percent from December levels, which were revised to show 0.9 percent month-over-month growth from November, up from the initial estimate of a 0.2 percent decline. Although year-over-year growth rates for shipments and new orders remain weak, the January rise in new orders could suggest a pick-up in business investment in equipment in the coming months.

Core Capital Goods

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Feb 25, 2016

Sales and Months' Supply of New Single-Family Homes

New single-family home sales fell 9.2 percent on a month-over-month basis, from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 544,000 in December to 494,000 in January. The months' supply of available new single-family homes increased from 5.1 months in December to 5.8 months in January.

Sales and Months' Supply of New Single-Family Homes

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Feb 25, 2016

Sales and Months' Supply of Existing Single-Family Homes

Existing single-family home sales increased 1.0 percent month over month, from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.810 million in December to 4.860 million in January. The months' supply of available existing homes for sale increased from 3.9 months in December to 4.0 percent in January.

Sales and Months' Supply of Existing Single-Family Homes

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Feb 25, 2016

U.S. Single-Family Home Sales

New single-family home sales fell 5.2 percent from the year-ago level, and existing single-family home sales increased 11.2 percent during the same period.

U.S. Single-Family Home Sales

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Feb 25, 2016

U.S. House Prices

U.S. house prices increased between 5 and 6 percent in December on a year-over-year basis.

U.S. House Prices

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Feb 19, 2016

Industrial Production

In January, the industrial production (IP) index registered its largest month-over-month increase since November 2014, rising 0.9 percent. The manufacturing subindex increased 0.5 percent compared with December, largely aided by a 2.8 percent increase in motor vehicles and parts production. The mining subindex was unchanged, and the utility subindex rose 5.4 percent. Year-over-year growth rates for IP and its industry groups remained subdued as effects from weak global demand and the rising dollar most likely continue to hamper activity. Total IP declined 0.7 percent, with the utilities subindex declining 2.8 percent and the mining subindex falling 9.8 percent compared with year-ago levels. Mining has been partially hampered by slowdowns in the oil and gas industries. The manufacturing subindex rose a moderate 1.2 percent compared with a year ago.

Industrial Production

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Feb 19, 2016

U.S. Housing Starts

Although housing start activity slowed a bit between December and January, total housing starts increased 1.8 percent, and single-family starts increased 3.5 percent from the year-earlier level.

U.S. Housing Starts

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Feb 12, 2016

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims

In the week ending February 6, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell by 16,000 from the previous week to 269,000—the lowest level in almost two months. The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, fell by 3,500 to 281,250. Claims were trending up slightly since last October yet have remained below 300,000 for 49 straight weeks—a sign of continued strengthening in the labor market.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims

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Feb 08, 2016

International Trade

The nominal trade deficit widened in December to $43.4 billion from a $42.2 billion in November as exports fell as imports increased. A solid increase in exports of consumer goods was more than offset by declines in other major categories. On the imports side, weakness was limited mainly to consumer and "other" goods, and most other categories saw increases in December.

Year over year, nominal exports fell 6.9 percent in December, and imports were down 6.5 percent. Export prices (goods only) declined 6.6 percent in December from a year-ago level, and import prices dropped 8.2 percent. (Excluding food and fuels, export and import prices were down 3.1 and 3.3 percent respectively in December on a year-over-year basis.) Real (adjusted for price changes) goods exports declined 3.9 percent, while goods imports rose a modest 1.3 percent. For 2015 as a whole, real goods imports were up 4.6 percent—the strongest growth rate since 2011. Real goods exports fell 0.5 percent, the first drop since 2009.


International Trade

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Feb 05, 2016

Average Hourly Earnings

Average hourly earnings increased from December to January by 12 cents to $25.39. During the year, average hourly earnings rose by 2.5 percent in January, following a 2.7 percent year-over-year change in December.


Average Hourly Earnings

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Feb 05, 2016

Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment

January net job growth was concentrated in retail trade (up by 57,700), food services and drinking places (up by 46,700), health care (up by 36,800), and manufacturing (up by 29,000).

Educational services lost 38,500 net jobs in January as a result of larger-than-normal seasonal layoffs, and employment in temporary help services edged down (losing 25,200). Transportation and warehousing decreased by 20,300 net jobs, with most of the loss occurring among couriers and messengers (down by 14,400), reflecting larger than usual layoffs following strong seasonal hiring in the prior two months. Mining employment continued to decline in January (down by 7,000).


Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment

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Feb 05, 2016

Payroll Employment Changes

U.S. employers added 151,000 net payrolls in January. During the 12 months ending in January, monthly job gains averaged 222,000.

The past two months were revised downward by 2,000, and November was revised up from 252,000 to 280,000. The change for December was revised down from 292,000 to 262,000.


Payroll Employment Changes

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Feb 05, 2016

Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates

The U3 civilian unemployment rate fell to an eight-year low of 4.9 percent in January. The broader U6 measure, which includes persons marginally attached to the labor force and persons working part-time for economic reasons, held at 9.9 percent for the third month in a row. The labor force participation rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 62.7 percent. From a year earlier, the U3 rate was down by 0.8 percentage point, the U6 rate was down 1.4 percentage points, and the labor force participation rate was down 0.2 percentage point.

Note: Part of the reason for the decline in the U3 unemployment rate resulted from an increase in employment of 615,000. However, 206,000 of that gain was the result of updated population estimates by the Labor Department.

Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates

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Feb 05, 2016

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims

In the week ending January 30, initial claims for unemployment insurance increased by 8,000 from the previous week to 285,000. The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, ticked up 2,000 to 284,750. During the last few months, the claims level and four-week average have trended upward.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims

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Feb 04, 2016

Contributions to Real GDP Growth

According to the advance estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the fourth quarter of 2015,real GDP increased at an annualized rate of 0.7 percent, following a 2.0 percent increase in the third quarter of 2015. Much of the increase was attributed to contributions from consumer spending and residential investment, which contributed 1.5 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively. Net exports, private inventory investment, nonresidential structures, and nonresidential equipment and software subtracted 0.5, 0.5, 0.2, and 0.2 percentage points, respectively, from the overall growth rate for the quarter.

Contributions to Real GDP Growth

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Feb 04, 2016

Federal Reserve Liabilities (Sources of Funds)

As of January 27, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet showed total liabilities of $4.5 trillion, reflecting a decrease of $4.4 billion since December 30. Currency in circulation decreased by $126.0 billion, and banks' reserve balances increased by $190.6 billion. Reverse repurchase bank agreements decreased by $189.4 billion during the same time period.

Federal Reserve Liabilities (Sources of Funds)

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Feb 04, 2016

Federal Reserve Assets (Uses of Funds)

As of January 27, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet showed total assets of $4.5 trillion, reflecting a decrease of $4.4 billion since December 30. Agency debt and MBS decreased by $6.3 billion, and other assets increased by $3.5 billion.

Federal Reserve Assets (Uses of Funds)

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Feb 04, 2016

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 0.1 percent in December, month over month. Much of the slowdown in growth in consumer spending was attributed to durable goods and nondurable goods spending, which declined 0.7 and 0.2 percent, respectively, month over month in December. On a year-over-year basis, real PCE grew 2.6 percent.

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

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Feb 04, 2016

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Expectations

The Conference Board's measure of expectations rose from 83.0 in December to 85.9 in January. The University of Michigan's measure remained flat in January at 82.7, remaining above the 2014 average.

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Expectations

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Feb 04, 2016

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Current Situation

The Conference Board's measure of current conditions remained flat in January from December at 116.4. The University of Michigan's measure declined to 106.4 in January from 108.1 in December. Both indexes have returned to prerecession levels.

Consumer Confidence Indices Measuring Current Situation

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Feb 04, 2016

Disposable Personal Income and Personal Saving Rate

The personal saving rate (savings as a percent of disposable income) was 5.5 percent in December, increasing by 0.2 percentage points from November. Real disposable personal income rose 3.1 percent in December from a year ago.

Disposable Personal Income and Personal Saving Rate

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Feb 02, 2016

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

In January, the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index ticked up to 48.2 from December's reading of 48.0. Despite the increase, the index remained in contractionary territory for the fourth consecutive month. The new orders and production subindexes also rose from the previous month, with both subindexes climbing back into expansionary territory. The employment subindex fell to its lowest level since June 2009, suggesting that manufacturing payrolls decreased during January. The rise in new orders and production could be a positive sign for growth in the near term, but the overall ISM index reading continues to suggest weakness in the manufacturing sector.

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

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Feb 02, 2016

PCE Price Index Components

Among the PCE price index components, year over year, the nondurable goods subindex was down 2.5 percent in December, up from a decline of 3.0 percent in November. The durable goods subindex was down 1.4 percent year over year in December, up from a decline of 1.8 percent in November and consistent with the long-term deflationary trend in the durable goods market. The services subindex rose 1.9 percent year over year, unchanged from the previous three months. Services account for nearly two thirds of personal expenditures and have experienced relatively stable inflation of around 2 percent since 2010.

PCE Price Index Components

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Feb 02, 2016

Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index

The headline personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose 0.6 percent year over year in December, up from 0.4 percent in November. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 1.4 percent year over year in December, unchanged from the previous month. At a one-month annualized rate, the headline PCE price index fell 1.1 percent in December, a decrease from the 0.8 percent reading in November, and the core figure (one-month annualized rate) rose 0.5 percent, down from 1.9 percent in November.

Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index

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Feb 02, 2016

Commodity Price Index - All Commodities

The Commodity Research Bureau's all commodities price index fell 0.5 percent month over month in January. The subindex for foodstuffs (such as corn, coffee, and sugar) fell 4.0 percent, and the subindex for metals (such as aluminum, lead, and copper) rose 0.5 percent, and the subindex for livestock (such as cattle and hogs) rose 1.3 percent. Since January 2015, the all commodities price index is down 12.1 percent. The all commodities index continues to be well below its April 2011 peak level of 576.

Commodity Price Index - All Commodities

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Feb 01, 2016

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims

In the week ending January 23, initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased to 278,000, which is 16,000 fewer than the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 293,000. The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, was 283,000, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims

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Jan 29, 2016

Core Capital Goods

In December, new orders for core capital goods (nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft) fell 4.3 percent compared with November, and the previous month's reading was revised down to a 1.1 percent decline. Shipments for these goods also fell month over month, decreasing 0.2 percent in December. Year-over-year growth rates for shipments and new orders remain weak. Overall, the latest data continue to indicate weak conditions in the manufacturing sector and suggest a weak outlook for equipment spending in the near term.

Core Capital Goods

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Jan 29, 2016

Sales and Months' Supply of New Single-Family Homes

New single-family home sales increased 10.8 percent on a month-over-month basis, from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 491,000 in November to 544,000 in December. The months' supply of available new single-family homes dropped from 5.6 months in November to 5.2 months in December.

Sales and Months' Supply of New Single-Family Homes

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Jan 29, 2016

Sales and Months' Supply of Existing Single-Family Homes

Existing single-family home sales increased 16.1 percent month over month, from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.150 million in November to 4.820 million in December. The months' supply of available existing homes for sale fell from 5.2 months in November to 3.9 months in December.

Sales and Months' Supply of Existing Single-Family Homes

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Jan 29, 2016

U.S. Single-Family Home Sales

New single-family home sales increased 9.9 percent from the year-ago level, and existing single-family home sales increased 7.1 percent during the same period.

U.S. Single-Family Home Sales

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Jan 29, 2016

U.S. House Prices

U.S. house prices increased between 5 and 6 percent in November on a year-over-year basis.

U.S. House Prices

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Jan 21, 2016

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Headline consumer prices rose 0.7 percent on a year-over-year basis in December, up from a 0.5 percent year-over-year increase in November. On a one-month annualized basis, headline consumer price inflation decreased from 0.3 percent in November to -1.3 percent in December. The deceleration was partially the result of the decrease in the energy commodities subindex (gasoline and fuel oil), which fell 38.0 percent on a one-month annualized basis in December. The core measure, which excludes food and energy, was up 2.1 percent year over year, the highest 12-month change since May 2014.

Housing Starts

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Jan 20, 2016

Housing Starts

Total and single-family housing start activity softened a bit between November and December. Despite this month-to-month softening, total housing starts increased 6.4 percent, and single-family starts increased 6.1 percent on a year-over-year basis.

Housing Starts

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Jan 20, 2016

Industrial Production

The industrial production (IP) index fell 0.4 percent in December compared with the previous month. The decline in the overall index was a result of weakness in all subindexes. Compared with November, the manufacturing subindex declined 0.1 percent largely as a result of a slowdown in motor vehicles production, which fell 1.7 percent month over month. With unseasonably warmer temperatures across much of the country, the utilities subindex declined 2.0 percent during the December after falling 5.0 percent in November. The mining subindex fell for the fourth consecutive month, dropping 0.8 percent. Mining most likely continues to be heavily affected by the slowdown in the energy sector. Year over year, total IP is down 1.8 percent.

Industrial Production

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Jan 14, 2016

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims

In the week ending January 9, initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 284,000—7,000 more than the previous week's unrevised number. The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, was 278,750—up 3,000 from the previous week's unrevised average. The claims level and four-week average have moved upward over the last few months, though seasonal adjustments following the holiday season may be causing volatility in the data.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims

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Jan 12, 2016

Average Hourly Earnings

Average hourly earnings fell 1 cent from November to $25.24 in December. During the year, average hourly earnings rose by 2.5 percent in December, the strongest growth pace in the past five years.

Average Hourly Earnings

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Jan 12, 2016

Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment

December job growth was concentrated in professional and business services (up 73,000), health care and social assistance (up 52,600), construction (up 45,000), and food services and drinking places (up 37,000). Mining employment continued to decline (down 8,000).
Over 2015, the biggest net contributors to payrolls were professional and business services (up 605,000), health care and social assistance (up 592,000), and food services and drinking places (up 357,300).

Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment

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Jan 12, 2016

Payroll Employment Changes

U.S. employers added 292,000 net payrolls in December. During the 12 months ending in December, monthly job gains averaged 221,000.
The past two months were revised up by 50,000—October was revised upward from 298,000 to 307,000, and the change for November was revised from 211,000 to 252,000.

Payroll Employment Changes

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Jan 12, 2016

Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates

The U3 civilian unemployment rate held steady at 5.0 percent for the third month in a row. The broader U6 measure, which includes people marginally attached to the labor force and those working part-time for economic reasons, also held at 9.9 percent. The labor force participation rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 62.6 percent. From a year earlier, the U3 rate was down by 0.6 percentage point, the U6 rate was down 1.3 percentage points, and the labor force participation rate was down 0.1 percentage point.

Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates

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Jan 12, 2016

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims

In the week ending January 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 277,000, which is 10,000 fewer than the previous week's unrevised number. The four-week moving average, a less volatile gauge of underlying labor market conditions, was 275,750—down 1,250 from the previous week's unrevised average. The trend in claims remained consistent with a strengthening labor market.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Initial Claims

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Jan 12, 2016

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

The economic policy uncertainty index, which measures policy-related economic uncertainty, rose 10 points to 103 in December from 93 in November. The index remains well below its postrecession high of 245 in August 2011.

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

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Jan 11, 2016

PCE Price Index Components

Among the PCE price index components, year over year, the nondurable goods subindex was down 3.1 percent in November, an increase from October's reading of a decline of 3.7 percent. The durable goods subindex was down 1.7 percent year over year in November, up from the 2.0 percent decline in October and consistent with the long-term deflationary trend in the durable goods market. The services subindex rose 1.9 percent year over year, unchanged from the previous two months. Services account for nearly two thirds of personal expenditures and have experienced relatively stable inflation of around 2 percent since 2010.

PCE Price Index Components

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Jan 11, 2016

Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index

The headline personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose 0.4 percent year over year in November, up from 0.2 percent in October. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 1.3 percent year over year in October, unchanged from the previous three months. At a one-month annualized rate, the headline PCE price index rose 0.3 percent in November, a decrease from the 0.7 percent reading in October, and the core figure (one-month annualized rate) rose 1.4 percent, up from 0.4 percent in October.

Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index

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Jan 11, 2016

International Trade

The nominal trade deficit narrowed in November to $42.4 billion from a revised $44.6 billion in October as imports fell more than exports. The decline in imports was led by decreases in consumer goods, and the decline in exports was spread broadly across major categories. Year over year, nominal exports and imports continued to decline in November, declining 7.1 and 4.9 percent, respectively.

International Trade

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Jan 11, 2016

Disposable Personal Income and Personal Saving Rate

The personal saving rate (savings as a percent of disposable income) was 5.5 percent in November, remaining essentially flat from October. Real disposable personal income rose 3.5 percent in November from a year ago.

Disposable Personal Income and Personal Saving Rate

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Jan 11, 2016

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 0.3 percent in November, month over month. Much of the slowdown in growth in consumer spending was attributed to services spending, which declined 0.24, year over year. Durable goods and nondurable goods spending rose 1.1 and 0.9 percent, respectively, month over month in November. On a year-over-year basis, real PCE grew 2.5 percent.

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

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Jan 11, 2016

Contributions to Real GDP Growth

According to the third estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the third quarter of 2015, real GDP increased at an annualized rate of 2.0 percent, following a 3.9 percent increase in the second quarter of 2015. Much of the increase was attributed to contributions from consumer spending and nonresidential equipment and software, which contributed 2.0 and 0.6 percentage points, respectively, to the third quarter's growth. Private inventory investment, nonresidential structures and net exports subtracted 0.7, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points, respectively, from the overall growth rate for the quarter.

Contributions to Real GDP Growth

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Jan 08, 2016

Commodity Price Index - All Commodities

The Commodity Research Bureau's all commodities price index fell 1.7 percent month over month in December. The subindex for livestock (such as cattle and hogs) fell 3.6 percent, metals (such as copper, lead, and steel) fell 2.5 percent, and foodstuffs (such as sugar, corn, and butter) fell 3.5 percent. Since December 2014, the all commodities price index is down 14.9 percent. The all commodities index continues to be well below its April 2011 peak level of 576.

Commodity Price Index – All Commodities

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Jan 08, 2016

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

In December, the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index fell to its lowest level since June 2009 with a reading of 48.2. After 34 consecutive months of expansion, the ISM index has now indicated contraction in the manufacturing sector for the second month in a row. The overall decline was headlined by the employment subindex, which fell 3.2 points to a reading of 48.1. All other major subindexes also indicated contraction with the exception of supplier delivery times. According to the ISM report, 10 out of 18 industries reported contraction during December, with only six reporting expansion. The fall in the ISM index continues to suggest that the manufacturing sector is most likely being dampened by the strong dollar and weak global demand.

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

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Jan 06, 2016

The View from the Fed: Summary of Economic Projections (Unemployment Rate)

The December Summary of Economic Projections for the unemployment rate showed a central tendency of 5.0 percent for 2015. The 2016 and 2017 central tendency projections decreased at the upper and lower bounds since the September 17 projection. The central tendency of the unemployment rate in 2018 decreased at the lower bound and remained unchanged at the upper bound. The longer-run projection decreased slightly at the lower bound and remained unchanged at the upper bound of the central tendency from the September projection.


The View from the Fed: Summary of Economic Projections (Unemployment Rate)

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Jan 06, 2016

The View from the Fed: The Summary of Economic Projections (PCE Inflation)

The December Summary of Economic Projections for 2015 personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation showed the central tendency projection at 0.4 percent. The central tendency for the 2016 projection decreased at the lower and upper bound from the September 17 projection. The 2017 central tendency projection remained unchanged from the September projection. The central tendency of PCE inflation in 2018 is 1.9 percent at the lower bound and 2.0 percent at the upper bound. The longer-run central tendency projection remained unchanged from the September 17 projection of 2.0 percent.


The View from the Fed: The Summary of Economic Projections (PCE Inflation)

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Jan 06, 2016

The View from the Fed: Summary of Economic Projections (Change in Real GDP)

The December Summary of Economic Projections for 2015 gross domestic product (GDP) growth showed the central tendency projection at 2.1 percent for 2015. The central tendency of GDP growth in 2016 increased at the lower bound by 0.1 percentage points, and the upper bound decreased by 0.1 percentage points since the September 17 projection. The central tendency for 2017 remained unchanged at the lower bound and decreased by 0.1 percentage points in the upper bound. The GDP central tendency projection for 2018, as well as the longer-run projection, remained unchanged from the September 17 projection.


The View from the Fed: Summary of Economic Projections (Change in Real GDP)

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Jan 04, 2016

PCE Price Index Components

Among the PCE price index components, year over year, the nondurable goods subindex was down 3.1 percent in November, an increase from October’s reading of a decline of 3.7 percent. The durable goods subindex was down 1.7 percent year over year in November, up from the 2.0 percent decline in October and consistent with the long-term deflationary trend in the durable goods market. The services subindex rose 1.9 percent year over year, unchanged from the previous two months. Services account for nearly two thirds of personal expenditures and have experienced relatively stable inflation of around 2 percent since 2010.


PCE Price Index Components

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Jan 04, 2016

Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index

The headline personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose 0.4 percent year over year in November, up from 0.2 percent in October. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 1.3 percent year over year in October, unchanged from the previous three months. At a one-month annualized rate, the headline PCE price index rose 0.3 percent in November, a decrease from the 0.7 percent reading in October, and the core figure (one-month annualized rate) rose 1.4 percent, up from 0.4 percent in October.


Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index

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