Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Research Center Executive Director of the Center for Quantitative Economic Research, Tao Zha

Tao Zha

Research Center Executive Director, Center for Quantitative Economic Research (CQER)
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email :: 404-498-8353

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  • Biography

    Tao Zha is research center executive director of the Center for Quantitative Economic Research in the research department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Samuel Candler Dobbs professor of economics at Emory University, and Research Associate at National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). His major fields of study are macroeconomics, financial economics, econometrics, and the Chinese economy.

    Dr. Zha was born in 1962. He received his doctorate in economics from the University of Minnesota in December 1992. His major fields of study are macroeconomics, financial economics, the Chinese economy, and econometrics. Dr. Zha has served on the editorial board for several journals including Econometrica, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, and Journal of Econometrics. He has published in many journals, including National Bureau of Economic Research Macroeconomics Annual, Brookings Papers on Economics Activity, Review of Economic Studies, Econometrica, American Economic Review, and Journal of Political Economy. Three of his articles were cited by the 2011 Nobel Economic Sciences Prize Committee.

  • Working Papers

    Atlanta Fed Working Papers

    2016-9
    China Pro-Growth Monetary Policy and Its Asymmetric Transmission
    Kaiji Chen, Patrick Higgins, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
    September 2016
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (518 KB)

    2016-7
    Forecasting China's Economic Growth and Inflation
    Patrick Higgins, Tao Zha, and Karen Zhong
    July 2016
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (407 KB)

    2016-1
    What We Learn from China's Rising Shadow Banking: Exploring the Nexus of Monetary Tightening and Banks' Role in Entrusted Lending
    Kaiji Chen, Jue Ren, and Tao Zha
    January 2016
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (544 KB)

    2015-8
    Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of Bank Intermediation Shocks: A Structural Approach
    Kaiji Chen and Tao Zha
    August 2015
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (966 KB)

    2015-5
    Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy
    Chun Chang, Kaiji Chen, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
    June 2015
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (649 KB)

    2014-21
    The Dynamic Striated Metropolis-Hastings Sampler for High-Dimensional Models
    Daniel F. Waggoner, Hongwei Wu, and Tao Zha
    November 2014
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (957 KB)

    2014-16
    Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching DSGE Models
    Andrew Foerster, Juan Rubio-Ramirez, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
    August 2014
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (489 KB)

    2014-15
    Liquidity Premia, Price-Rent Dynamics, and Business Cycles
    Jianjun Miao, Pengfei Wang, and Tao Zha
    August 2014
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (745 KB)

    2013-6
    Land Prices and Unemployment
    Zheng Liu, Jianjun Miao, and Tao Zha
    September 2013
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (628 KB)

    2013-1
    Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching DSGE Models
    Andrew Foerster, Juan Rubio-Ramirez, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
    March 2013
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (539 KB)

    2011-11
    Land-Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
    Zheng Liu, Pengfei Wang, and Tao Zha
    July 2011
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (411KB)

    2010-18a
    Confronting Model Misspecification in Macroeconomics
    Daniel F. Waggoner and Tao Zha
    (Revised) February 2012
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (418 KB)

    2010-1
    Do Credit Constraints Amplify Macroeconomic Fluctuations?
    Zheng Liu, Pengfei Wang, and Tao Zha
    February 2010
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (416 KB)

    2009-5
    Understanding Markov-Switching Rational Expectations Models
    Roger E.A. Farmer, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
    March 2009
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (668 KB)

    2009-3a
    Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A Regime-Switching DSGE Approach
    Zheng Liu, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
    (Revised) October 2010
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (755 KB)

    2008-23a
    Minimal State Variable Solutions to Markov-Switching Rational Expectations Models
    Roger E.A. Farmer, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
    (Revised) September 2010
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (244 KB)

    2008-20
    Learning, Adaptive Expectations, and Technology Shocks
    Kevin X.D. Huang, Zheng Liu, and Tao Zha
    September 2008
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (602 KB)

    2008-19
    Generalizing the Taylor Principle: Comment
    Roger E.A. Farmer, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
    September 2008
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (228 KB)

    2008-18
    Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory of Identification and Algorithms for Inference
    Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
    September 2008
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (548 KB)

    2007-23
    Asymmetric Expectation Effects of Regime Shifts and the Great Moderation
    Zheng Liu, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
    October 2007
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (768 KB)

    2007-12
    Understanding the New Keynesian Model When Monetary Policy Switches Regimes
    Roger E.A. Farmer, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
    July 2007
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (477 KB)

    2006-22
    Methods for Inference in Large Multiple-Equation Markov-Switching Models
    Christopher A. Sims, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
    November 2006
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (310 KB)

    2006-20
    The Conquest of South American Inflation
    Thomas Sargent, Noah Williams, and Tao Zha
    November 2006
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (1.03 MB)

    2006-19a
    Indeterminacy in a Forward-Looking Regime-Switching Model
    Roger E.A. Farmer, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
    (Revised) September 2007
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (548 KB)

    2006-3
    Transparency, Expectations, and Forecasts
    Andrew Bauer, Robert A. Eisenbeis, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
    April 2006
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (420 KB)

    2005-27
    Markov-Switching Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory and Application
    Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramírez, Daniel Waggoner, and Tao Zha
    December 2005
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (472 KB)

    2004-22
    Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation
    Thomas Sargent, Noah Williams, and Tao Zha
    September 2004
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (1 MB)

    2004-15
    MCMC Method for Markov Mixture Simultaneous-Equation Models: A Note
    Christopher A. Sims and Tao Zha
    June 2004
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (209 KB)

    2004-14
    Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?
    Christopher A. Sims and Tao Zha
    June 2004
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (368 KB)

    2004-13
    Normalization in Econometrics
    James D. Hamilton, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
    June 2004
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (986 KB)

    2002-19
    Modest Policy Interventions
    Eric M. Leeper and Tao Zha
    November 2002
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (396 KB)

    2002-8a
    Evaluating Wall Street Journal Survey Forecasters: A Multivariate Approach
    Robert Eisenbeis, Daniel Waggoner, and Tao Zha
    July 2002
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (116 KB)

    2000-19
    Assessing Simple Policy Rules: A View from a Complete Macro Model
    Eric M. Leeper and Tao Zha
    October 2000
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (388 KB)

    2000-8
    Likelihood-Preserving Normalization in Multiple Equation Models
    Daniel F. Waggoner and Tao Zha
    June 2000
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (202 KB)

    2000-3
    A Gibbs Simulator for Restricted VAR Models
    Daniel F. Waggoner and Tao Zha
    March 2000
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (383 KB)

    99-22
    Modest Policy Interventions
    Eric M. Leeper and Tao Zha
    December 1999
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (313 KB)

    99-21
    Quantifying the Half-Life of Deviations from PPP: The Role of Economic Priors
    Lutz Kilian and Tao Zha
    December 1999
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (128 KB)

    98-22
    Conditional Forecasts in Dynamic Multivariate Models
    Daniel F. Waggoner and Tao Zha
    December 1998
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (198 KB)

    98-12
    Does Monetary Policy Generate Recessions?
    Christopher A. Sims and Tao A. Zha
    July 1998
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (286 KB)

    97-11
    Normalization, Probability Distribution, and Impulse Responses
    Daniel F. Waggoner and Tao Zha
    November 1997
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (131 KB)

    97-7
    Trends in Velocity and Policy Expectations
    David B. Gordon, Eric M. Leeper, and Tao Zha
    November 1997
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (551 KB)

    96-13
    Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models
    Christopher A. Sims and Tao Zha
    October 1996
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (534 KB)

    96-8
    Identification, Vector Autoregression, and Block Recursion
    Tao Zha
    August 1996
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (623 KB)

    95-8
    Bankruptcy Law Capital Allocation and Aggregate Effects: A Dynamic Heterogeneous Agent Model with Incomplete Markets
    Tao Zha
    October 1995
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format(600 KB)

    95-7
    Identifying Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy Under Flexible Exchange Rates
    David O. Cushman and Tao Zha
    October 1995
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (972 KB)

    95-6
    Error Bands for Impulse Responses
    Christopher A. Sims and Tao Zha
    September 1995
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (1.28 MB)

  • Other Fed Work

    Articles

    Andrew Bauer, Robert A. Eisenbeis, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha. "Transparency, Expectations, and Forecasts." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review (2006 Q1).
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (564 KB)

    Eric M. Leeper and Tao Zha. "Assessing Simple Policy Rules: A View from a Complete Macroeconomic Model." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review (2001 Q4).
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (316 KB)

    Madeline Zavodny and Tao Zha. "Monetary Policy and Racial Unemployment Rates." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review (2000 Q1).
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (218 KB)

    Tao Zha. "A Dynamic Multivariate Model for Use in Formulating Policy." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review (1998 Q1).
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (360 KB)

    Tao Zha. "Identifying Monetary Policy: A Primer." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review (1997 Q2).
    Abstract | Full text Adobe PDF file format (427 KB)

    Blog Posts

    Tao Zha. "The Rise of Shadow Banking in China," macroblog. April 11, 2016.

    Podcast Episodes podcast

    Patrick Higgins and Tao Zha. "​Examining China's Economy: A Conversation with Atlanta Fed Researchers." Economy Matters podcast. September 22, 2016.